Well – you know it was a wild week in the NFL when we go 13-12 on our player props for the week. Week 12 was pretty nutzo, as there were some crazy upsets which included the shitty Titans outscoring the Texans and backup DAL QB Cooper Rush leading the charge vs a very good Commanders team. While we didn’t perform as valiantly with our picks in Week 12 – we didn’t lose any ground with our profit, and we’re still running a pretty high success rate with exclusively NFL Player Prop Overs:
As I had posted on X previously – we have joined the MoneylineGo team (https://moneylinego.com/experts/PlusMoneyJ) and will now be offering NFL full slate analysis for a very small subscription fee ($20 per month) on that site. We will still be sharing a free preview (all TNF and MNF plays) here on our site, and on Moneyline – but full analysis for my 20+ player props every Sunday will be subscription only.
Without further ado – let’s get to the analysis.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
*All data from PFF.com premium subscription.
2024 NFL Week Thirteen: Thanksgiving Thursday Slate Best Bets – Top Player Props for Every Game
Game One: Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions
Pick: Caleb Williams Over 226.5 Passing Yards (-115) 1.15u via Betway
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- DET LBs Barnes, Anzalone, and Reeves-Maybin (all IR)
- DET Edges Davenport and Hutchinson (both IR)
- DET CB Ennis Rakestraw (IR)
- DET CB Carlton Davis (Out)
- CHI OG Ryan Bates (Out, hasn’t played much all year)
This pick comes down to a multitude of factors – all of which point to Williams having a big day through the air. Let’s get into why.
To start – the game-script should dictate a high volume of passes from Williams and this Bears air attack. DET is at home, and are currently 10 point favourites to win. On top of that, DET has continued to own opposing offences when it comes to the run game (DET is 4th best in the NFL, only allowing 68 rush yards per game to opposing RB rooms). With the Bears defence playing much worse (as of late), and DET still firing on all cylinders offensively – I expect the Bears to be trailing.
Next – DET has a serious deficiency in their pass defence without Hutchinson rushing the passer. DET is known for playing a lot of man coverage, and without the vaunted pass-rush they had early in the season – things are falling apart. The Lions D allows the 7th most pass yards per game at over 240 – which would be even worse if not for recent QB competition.
Sure – the DET secondary held their last two matchups to under 175 pass yards each. But then – take into account the QBs: Anthony Richardson (200 pass yards per game this year) & Mac Jones (124.5 pass yards per game in his starts this year). Not too hard to limit QBs like that through the air. If you look prior to those two matchups – you see the real story of this DET secondary: as they allowed 6 straight passers to go for 224+ pass yards, where those QBs averaged 274.8 pass yards per game.
Lastly – how Williams has been playing lately. Caleb really surprised me with his performance vs a tough MIN defence last week, putting up 340 pass yards with some of the tightest spirals I’ve seen this year. But then you look at Williams’ last 7 games – and you realize that he’s been over 215 pass yards in 5 of them (vs tougher secondaries). Not too shabby, especially when the books give us a line like this to take advantage of. Let’s rock people.
Pick: Rome Odunze Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.1u via Bet365
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- DET LBs Barnes, Anzalone, and Reeves-Maybin (all IR)
- DET Edges Davenport and Hutchinson (both IR)
- DET CB Ennis Rakestraw (IR)
- DET CB Carlton Davis (Out)
- CHI OG Ryan Bates (Out, hasn’t played much all year)
An ode to Odunze here with one of my favourite low-key picks on Thursday. It’s been a tough year to guess which CHI WR will go off on any given week, as all three (Allen, Moore, & Odunze) have over 350 receiving yards on the season, but under 575. Thing is – with the matchup here, they could all go Over their lines. Nonetheless, the WR I have the most confidence in is Odunze – and here’s why.
First of all – back to trashing this DET secondary. While they’re giving up the 7th most pass yards per game this year – they’re even worse when it comes to opposing WR production. The Lions D is 2nd worst in the NFL in receiving yards allowed per game to WRs (187.18), and they’re the worst when it comes to receptions allowed to WRs per game (15.27). That means a lot of opportunities for CHI pass-catchers to get the ball in their hands and make plays.
But why Odunze and not Moore/Allen? Well, if you recall from the Williams’ analysis above, the DET defence is known for playing a lot of man coverage (42.5% man coverage rate, 1st in the NFL). With that glaring stat in mind – we have to look at how the Bears WRs have performed against man vs zone coverage. The result – while DJ Moore is eating up zone coverage on the season (team leader at 358 receiving yards), he’s struggling against man coverage (3rd out of CHI WRs at 89 receiving yards). Meanwhile – Odunze is performing at a team-best level vs man coverage (154 receiving yards on 11 less targets than DJ in man coverage).
Okay – Rome may not be the most consistent producer. But – he’s averaging 50.28 receiving yards per game over his last 7 games, with 39+ receiving yards in 6 of those 7. With a line that’s really close to those numbers – and the juicy matchup on deck – ride Odunze to the bank.
Pick: Jameson Williams Over 23.5 Yards Longest Reception (-115) 1.15u via NorthStar
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- DET OT Taylor Decker (Out)
- DET RB David Montgomery (Questionable, likely to play)
- DET WR Khalif Raymond (Doubtful, unlikely to play)
- DET WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (Questionable, likely to play)
- CHI CB Jaylon Jones (IR)
- CHI S Jaquan Brisker (IR)
- CHI S Elijah Hicks (Out)
With all of the nagging injuries plaguing DET offensive skill players – Jamo seems like the lock here. While I expect Montgomery and St. Brown both to play – it’s possible they aren’t as effective with their ailments. Further, I’m almost sure Khalif Raymond isn’t going to play – which leaves another 15-30% of snaps to the other WRs. With Jamo only playing 65-80% of snaps – I would be surprised if he doesn’t get more time on the field.
On top of that – this CHI defence is susceptible to Jamo’s best weapon – the deep ball. While the CHI defence still allows the 12th least receiving yards to WRs (138.09), they’re allowing the 3rd most receiving yards per reception to WRs (14.75). That’s about as indicative as it gets: and without Brisker (Out since Week 6), this defence has been even worse in this area.
- Week 8 vs Commanders (Week 7 Bye): 21.2 yards per reception
- Week 9 vs Cardinals: 17.0 yards per reception
- Week 10 vs Patriots: 11.0 yards per reception
- Week 11 vs Packers: 27.14 yards per reception
- Week 12 vs Vikings: 17.64 yards per reception
Those marks are pretty bad – and then we look to Jamo’s long reception numbers. In 5 of his last 6 games, he’s had a long reception of 21 yards or more. In 3 of those games, he had a long reception of 37 yards or more. We all know this guy’s game by now – and with a good matchup and banged up teammates – I expect at least one bomb to the man they call Jamo.
Game Two: New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys
Pick: Malik Nabers Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-115) 1.15u via Sports Interaction
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- NYG QB Tommy Devito (Questionable, chance to start, true 50-50)
- NYG OT Jermaine Eleumanor (Out)
- NYG OT Andrew Thomas (IR)
- DAL CB Caelon Carson (IR)
- DAL CB Trevon Diggs (Questionable, unlikely to play IMO)
- DAL LB Eric Kendricks (Questionable, DNP all week, unlikely to play)
- DAL DE Marshawn Kneeland (Doubtful, unlikely to play)
Wow – that’s a mess of injuries for both teams in this one. The NYG OLine is going to have some serious struggles vs Micah Parsons and Co., as their two starting Tackles are both Out. Thing is – we may be getting an upgrade at QB for the NYG, with Drew Lock stepping up as the starter after we watched Tommy D get embarrassed on his home field with the Baker Mayfield celly:
The tough part with this game – the DAL defence can be absolutely had on the ground, as they’re allowing 145 scrimmage yards per game to opposing RBs, with 5 of the last 6 opposing RBs rooms going for 100+ rushing. Thing is – I’m having difficulty getting there with the Tyrone Tracy love. He’s a great RB, with way more skill and speed than backup RB Devin Singletary – but he’s fumbled the ball three times in his last two games. In that time, we saw Tracy’s snap share go from 80% pre-fumbles, to 41% post-fumbles. It’s possible Daboll just put him in the dog-house for one game due to the ball security issues and the fact they were getting blown out – and that all will be well this week. However – it’s tough to bet on that when Tracy has a rushing + receiving line of 75+ yards (when he’s only surpassed that mark in 3 of his last 5 games).
The much easier play to me here – feed Nabers. A lot of the DAL defensive pass yards allowed last week vs WAS happened in the last few minutes with McLaurin and his huge TD – but there’s still some meat on this bone with the injuries to the DAL secondary.
I expect Bland to play, but Diggs is likely Out in this one, and backup Caelon Carson will likely be missing as well. So – it’ll be Bland out wide, Jourdan Lewis in the slot, and ….. Josh Butler (???) on the other side. So – why are we going Nabers instead of slot WR Wandale Robinson or deep-threat Darius Slayton?
First off – DAL slot CB Jourdan Lewis is coming off two of his best games of the season recently, with a 90+ PFF coverage grade in 2 of his last 3 outings. Tough to go up against him with a slot-merchant like Wandale. Then – consider that the DAL defence plays the 12th most zone coverage in the League (over 70%). Slayton’s numbers against zone coverage? 247 receiving yards on 26 targets. Nabers against zone coverage? 55 targets for 415 receiving yards. This disparity becomes easier to see when you consider that Slayton is very close to Nabers in receiving yards vs man coverage (140 vs 209 receiving yards).
The last point – even with the garbage time production by WAS vs this DAL secondary last week, the DAL D is still giving up big yards to opposing WRs. They’re allowing the 12th most receiving yards per game to WRs (153), with 173.5 receiving yards per game allowed to WRs over their last 6 games (that would be the 6th worst mark season-long).
It’s all right there – time for Nabers to get some love with a depressed line and a 3rd string QB.
Pick: Rico Dowdle Over 87.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-111) 1.11u via Sports Interaction
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- NYG QB Tommy Devito (Questionable, chance to start, true 50-50)
- DAL WR Brandin Cooks (likely returning from IR)
- DAL TE Jake Ferguson (Out)
- DAL OG Zack Martin (Out)
- DAL OG Tyler Smith (Full go, LPs all week)
- NYG CB Deonte Banks (Questionable, LPs all week, likely to play)
I’ll be honest – Zack Martin being Out doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in this pick (I expect Tyler Smith to play with LPs all week at practice). However – Martin has clearly been struggling with injury through most the year, and will likely have a sub-65 PFF run blocking grade this season (which isn’t great). Therefore – him dropping off the line doesn’t scare me as much.
The thing is – this NYG pass defence is pretty damn good. They’re allowing the 7th least pass yards per game this year (214), with WRs (13th least receiving yards per game to WRs at 139) and TEs (3rd least receiving yards per game to TEs at 35) struggling to find space. With Cooper Rush slinging the rock in this one, along with NYG pass-rushers Burns and Thibodeaux at full-strength – I don’t expect much production through the air for Dallas.
HOWEVER – the Giants continue to give up huge production to opposing RBs. It’s fair to say that some of this production is game-script induced because the Giants are trailing in many of their games. Nonetheless, this defence is still allowing the 3rd most rush yards per game to RBs (117) to go along with the 6th most receiving yards per game to RBs (40).
Bucky Irving gashed this NYG defence last week for 150+ scrimmage yards, Chuba Hubbard destroyed the week before with 160+ scrimmage yards, and even Commanders RBs (w/o Brian Robinson) combined for 150+ scrimmage yards before that. That’s a startling list – and while you might not know it, Dowdle hasn’t been that bad.
Amazingly – Dowdle has 55+ scrimmage yards in 8 of 10 games this season, with 3 games of 95+ scrimmage yards (including his last game out). He’s been getting the touches (12+ touches in each of his last 4 games), and he’s been getting the snaps (averaging 58.25% of snaps the last 4 weeks – next closest is Zeke with 24.33%). With this line – I’m comfortable riding him in a stellar matchup.
Game Three: Miami Dolphins vs Green Bay Packers
Pick: De’Von Achane Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.1u via Coolbet
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- MIA OT Austin Jackson (IR)
- MIA OT Terron Armstead (Questionable, LP Weds, likely to play)
- GB CB Jaire Alexander (Out)
- GB LB Edgerrin Cooper (Out)
I’ll be honest – Achane’s usage confuses me. Only 10 carries against a NE defence last week that gives up the 7th most rush yards per game to RBs (112) – and he goes for 32 rushing yards on 3.2 yards per carry? It’s fair to say Miami didn’t really need Achane because they got the lead early and were never really in fear of losing the game. However – MIA only had 65 rush yards from their RBs as a whole in that game vs NE. That’s only the second time since Week 2 that opposing RBs didn’t go for 100+ rush yards vs the NE defence. Maybe this MIA run game is just cheeks?
Well – things won’t get much better this week going up against a GB defence that only allows 92 rush yards per game to RBs (middle of the pack). They held CMC to 31 rush yards on 11 attempts last week, and have only given up 100+ rush yards to RBs in 3 of their last 6 games. However – they are letting RBs cook in the receiving game.
They’re allowing the 9th most receiving yards to RBs per game (39.2), and have given up 20+ receiving yards to RBs in their last 4 games (with notable performances such as CMC going for 37 receiving yards and David Montgomery (known receiving back – lol) going for 23 receiving yards). I’m not saying this GB D is terrible against opposing RBs in the pass game – but they aren’t good, and then consider how Achane has been operating in the pass game.
In 5 straight games – Achane has Over 15 receiving yards. In 4 of those games – he was at 24+ receiving yards. In 3 of those games – he had 32+ receiving yards. That’s very solid production through the air – which coincidently lines up with the Week that Tua came back as the starting QB.
Tyreek looks to be very banged up coming into this one (on a short week, with the torn ligament in his wrist to consider), which only leaves more targets to be soaked up by this stud RB. Let him buck.
Pick: Jonnu Smith Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-115) 1.15u via Betway
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- MIA OT Austin Jackson (IR)
- MIA OT Terron Armstead (Questionable, LP Weds, likely to play)
- GB CB Jaire Alexander (Out)
- GB LB Edgerrin Cooper (Out)
I almost hate this pick because it’s just too obvious. Jonnu has been spiking as of late, with 80+ receiving yards in his last two games, and 45+ receiving yards in 4 straight games. It’s obvious he has a role in this pass game – but his role has expanded as of late to the chagrin of every opponent who has to face this MIA pass attack.
Further – the GB D just doesn’t give much up in the pass game to opposing WRs. They’re allowing the 5th least receiving yards per game to WRs (128), and somehow they’ve only gotten better with Jaire Alexander missing the last 3 weeks (played minimal snaps in Week 11 before exiting).
61 receiving yards allowed to 49ers WRs last week (fair, they had a backup QB); 168 receiving yards allowed to the Bears WRs the week before (but no single WR over 65 yards); and 82 receiving yards allowed to the Lions WRs the week before that. That’s not even to mention the 34 yards allowed to HOU WRs in Week 7, and the 57 yards allowed to ARI WRs in Week 6. This coverage unit is good – save for one exception.
Opposing TEs. They’re allowing the 12th most receiving yards per game to TEs (57), with recent performances such as 82 receiving yards allowed to George Kittle last week (with a backup QB) and 95 receiving yards allowed to the JAX TEs in Week 8. This isn’t a foolproof matchup where any old TE will go off – but with Jonnu’s recent production, and Tyreek getting more banged-up by the week with the torn ligament in his wrist – this one’s a lock.
Pick: Tucker Kraft Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.1u via Coolbet
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- MIA LB Tyus Bowser (Out)
- MIA CB Kendall Fuller (Out)
- MIA LB Anthony Walker (Out)
- GB WR Romeo Doubs (Out)
Let’s all cut Kraft some slack with his recent production. Yes – he’s been under 30 yards receiving in his last two games, with a big goose-egg two weeks ago vs the Bears. Thing is – his matchup last week was the 49ers D, who only allows 34.9 receiving yards per game to opposing TEs (2nd best in the NFL). I don’t have any excuse for the Bears game (they get lit up by TEs), but let’s chalk that up to a weird game where Kraft had his lowest number of receiving snaps since Week 2.
The 3 games before those two stinkers: Kraft was over 33 receiving yards in each one. That includes games against HOU and DET (who are both Top 5 in limiting TE production per game this year). Not too shabby, and we’re getting a line this low?
However – the cincher for this pick is the susceptibility of MIA’s D to TEs. MIA is only allowing 211 pass yards per game, the 6th best mark in the NFL. Further, they’re allowing a mere 89 rush yards per game to opposing RBs, and the 11th least receiving yards to RBs per game (30.9). WRs don’t have much more luck against this MIA D (3rd best in NFL, allowing 124.55 receiving yards per game to WRs).
Meanwhile – the MIA D has allowed the 13th most receiving yards per game to TEs (56), and things have looked even worse lately. In 3 of their last 5 games, they’ve allowed 100+ receiving yards to opposing TE rooms. Further – they’ve allowed 100+ receiving yards to TEs in each of their last two games. Sure – one of those matchups was vs stud Rookie TE Brock Bowers. But the other was against the Patriots’ TEs, who have experience, but aren’t nearly as athletic as Kraft.
That has me confident enough to believe Kraft will get 30+ in this game – which is such a minimal line for a TE that plays 80%+ of snaps every week in a matchup like this with a competent pass offence.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with more NFL picks. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
2024 NFL Week Thirteen: Thanksgiving Thursday Slate Best Bets – Top Player Props for Every Game
Game One: Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions
Pick: Caleb Williams Over 226.5 Passing Yards (-115) 1.15u via Betway
Pick: Rome Odunze Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.1u via Bet365
Pick: Jameson Williams Over 23.5 Yards Longest Reception (-115) 1.15u via NorthStar
Game Two: New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys
Pick: Malik Nabers Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-115) 1.15u via Sports Interaction
Pick: Rico Dowdle Over 87.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-111) 1.11u via Sports Interaction
Game Three: Miami Dolphins vs Green Bay Packers
Pick: De’Von Achane Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.1u via Coolbet
Pick: Jonnu Smith Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-115) 1.15u via Betway
Pick: Tucker Kraft Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.1u via Coolbet