Well, well, well – that was a hell of a Thanksgiving Thursday slate we had throughout yesterday. The Bears choked their game away late (as they’re prone to doing), the Cowboys didn’t beat themselves against the piss-poor Giants, and Miami continued to freeze under pressure in the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field. All of the games had some form of entertainment value – and we made it all the more enjoyable with our picks going 6-2 for $375 profit (if you’re a $100 unit bettor). Yet again – our analysis led us to the promised land.
As I had posted on X previously – we have joined the MoneylineGo team (https://moneylinego.com/experts/PlusMoneyJ) and will now be offering NFL full slate analysis for a very small subscription fee ($20 per month) on that site. We will still be sharing a free preview (all TNF and MNF plays) here on our site, and on Moneyline – but full analysis for my 20+ player props every Sunday will be subscription only.
Without further ado – let’s get to the analysis.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
*All data from PFF.com premium subscription.
2024 NFL Week Thirteen: Black Friday Best Bets – Top Player Props for LV Raiders vs KC Chiefs
Pick: Travis Kelce Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.10u via Coolbet
Pick: Noah Gray Over 21.5 Receiving Yards (-115) 1.15u via Bet99
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- LV CBs Jakorian Bennett and Nate Hobbs (Out)
- LV DT Christian Wilkins (IR)
- LV DE Malcolm Koonce (IR)
- LV S Marcus Epps (IR)
- KC WRs Skyy Moore and Hollywood Brown (IR)
This one may be a little tough to swallow – as it’s not exactly a fool-proof strategy to bet both TEs on one team to hit their Overs. The thing is – this is about as good of a matchup as you can get for your TEs – and this Chiefs offence has been operating heavily in 2-TE sets for a while now.
Let’s just start with the matchup vs this LV defence. Their best Cornerback on the team, slot CB Nate Hobbs, will be missing in this one. He would have been one of the few who could provide solid coverage against these TEs (as they frequently line up in the slot) – and now he’s being replaced by CB Darnay Holmes (2nd on the LV D in slot snaps at 77) – along with his 51.9 PFF coverage grade on the season (yuck).
In addition to that – the Raiders defence is allowing the 6th most receiving yards to TEs per game (61.55) to go along with the 7th most receptions per game (5.73). Those numbers become glaring when you see that the Raiders D: (i) allows the 11th least pass yards allowed per game (224.09); (ii) holds RB rooms to under 100 rush yards per game; and (iii) allows the 8th least receiving yards per game to WRs (131.64). So it’s a pretty decent defence – yet opposing TE production indicates that the middle-of-the-field is a black hole of production.
Then – we move to how KC has been utilizing their TEs. We all know Kelce is a stalwart in this offence, as he bounced back last week to hit his Over receiving yards after putting up a stinker the week prior. In fact – other than that 8 receiving yard performance in Week 11 – Kelce has four straight games over 60 receiving yards. He’s a lock.
The low-key pick comes with Gray, who may be the second-string TE in this offence, but plays enough snaps to be considered a starter. I don’t know many backup TEs that have commanded at least 50% of the offensive snaps in every game this year – but that’s Gray for you. In this offence, he has heavy utilization for his role, and that’s only expanded as of late.
Gray put up 23 receiving yards and 2 TDs in Week 11 – followed up by 66 yards and another 2 TDs last week. In fact – Gray has gone for 22+ receiving yards in 6 of his last 8 games. With his recent usage, and the susceptibility of this LV defence to the TE position – we’re expecting both TEs to cook.
Pick: Brock Bowers Over 6.5 Receptions (+105) 1.0u via Sports Interaction
Pick: Brock Bowers Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.10u via Coolbet
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- LV QB Aidan O’Connell (Returning from injury)
- LV QB Gardner Minshew (Out)
- LV RB Alex Mattison (Questionable, likely to play)
- LV RB Zamir White (Out)
- KC CB Jaylen Watson (IR)
It’s Bowers Szn yet again folks. What else needs to be said about this Rookie TE – he’s a stud, and he’s on track to break most (if not all) of the NFL Rookie TE records.
And oh my – what a matchup he has this week with the Chiefs defence. The Chiefs D isn’t looking as stellar as of late, but they’re still doing a good (enough) job stopping the run (still 1st in the NFL in rush yards per game allowed to RBs at 57) and preventing WRs from putting up production (6th in the NFL in receiving yards per game allowed to WRs at 129). It’s a healthy defence that knows how to prevent big-time plays – and the pass-rush isn’t half bad either (4th highest QB pressure % in the NFL).
However – as we always say around these parts – the Chiefs D can be exposed by TEs. They’re allowing the most receiving yards per game to TEs in the NFL (72.45) and the most receptions per game to go along with it (5.67). 7 straight games where opposing TE rooms were able to put up 45+ receiving yards – and they allowed 55+ receiving yards in 5 of them. They’ve faced a good slate of TEs through the season – but there’s no excuse for that kind of consistent production.
As for Bowers – in his last 5 games, he does have 2 games Over 90 receiving yards – but he also has 3 games under 60 receiving yards. Never to fear – we have LV QB O’Connell back in the lineup for this one. O’Connell has only played two full games this year (Weeks 5 & 6), but in each of those games, Bowers went over 8 receptions and 70 receiving yards. With this matchup – and O’Connells keen eye for Bowers – we’re expecting a double-bubble on this one.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with more NFL picks. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
2024 NFL Week Thirteen: Black Friday Best Bets – Top Player Props for LV Raiders vs KC Chiefs
Pick: Travis Kelce Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.10u via Coolbet
Pick: Noah Gray Over 21.5 Receiving Yards (-115) 1.15u via Bet99
Pick: Brock Bowers Over 6.5 Receptions (+105) 1.0u via Sports Interaction
Pick: Brock Bowers Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.10u via Coolbet