Well, that was another hell of a week in the NFL through Week 9. All capped off by a Monday Nighter that felt all too familiar, with KC narrowly escaping with the win (surprise, surprise). A couple OT games had us on the edge of our seats – and our player props for the weekend made everything even more exciting.
We’ve been doing player prop analysis for free on this site since Week 3 of the season – and since then, we’ve made over $2,500 profit (if you’re a $100 unit bettor) with Monday Night continuing the trend after Kelce and Otten went off:
As always – it’s a joy for me to share this analysis with everyone and anyone that may want it – as the breakdowns can serve as the bedrock for some nasty parlays if you want to take alternate (higher yardage/reception) props with big upside. So, without further ado, let’s get to it.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
*All data from PFF.com premium subscription.
NFL Week Ten: TNF Best Bets – Top Player Props for Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens
Pick: Ja’Marr Chase Over 80.5 Receiving Yards (-111) 1.1u via 3ET
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- BAL DT Michael Pierce (IR)
- CIN WR Tee Higgins (Doubtful, unlikely to play)
- CIN WR Chris Jones (Doubtful, unlikely to play)
I really don’t get it – Bengals are 3-1 over their last 4, but Ja’Marr has been anything but an impact player in that time. Over the last four weeks, Chase is averaging 56 receiving yards on 6.5 receptions per game without a game over 75 receiving yards. That’s a far-cry from the elite WR production we’ve come to expect from Chase – specifically with Tee Higgins missing time (as he’s missed the last two games).
However – as many of you know by this point of the season – the perfect cure for bad output at WR has been a matchup with this BAL defence. They’re giving up the 3rd most receiving yards per game to WRs (187), and 4th place isn’t necessarily close (the Jags at 175). They aren’t giving up overly explosive plays (11th in average yards per reception allowed), but the output has been consistent.
And it’s not like they’ve faced a killer’s row of opposing WR groups. Last week, Sutton went off for 122 receiving yards against this defence. The week before – it was the rag-tag group of WRs for the Browns that went for 263 receiving yards. Other notable matchups: Commanders WRs, Dallas WRs, and Raiders WRs each went for 150+ receiving yards on this group this year. And that’s not even the best part.
When the Bengals last played the Ravens in Week 5 (very good game, ended up 41-38), Chase absolutely torched this secondary. 193 receiving yards – all for him, with a long reception of 70 yards on a very good-looking YAC performance.
Fair – this was the last time he went for over 75 receiving yards in a game. Also fair – this is a guy that’s averaged over 82 receiving yards per game through a 54 game sample size to this point in his career. You want to talk about consistent production – that’s consistent. And now, Tee is likely missing this game with the CIN pass-attack being the only way this Bengals team moves the ball (BAL D is 2nd best in the League in only allowing 58 rush yards per game to opposing RBs).
It’s all right there – the bounce back for Chase, the matchup, and the proven production over a long period of time. Ride it out in this one – you won’t be disappointed.
Pick: Chase Brown Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.1u via Coolbet
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- BAL DT Michael Pierce (IR)
- CIN WR Tee Higgins (Doubtful, unlikely to play)
- CIN WR Chris Jones (Doubtful, unlikely to play)
- CIN RB Zack Moss (IR)
Was it just me – or did Chase Brown’s receiving work also impress everyone out there? The guy looks great in the passing game, and served as a check-down outlet to Burrow on more than a few occasions last time out:
With pre-emptive RB1 Zack Moss on the shelf with a neck injury, it only means more work for Chase in this one (as last week, he had 30+ touches and 80% of the snaps). I know – the Bengals made their 2nd mid-season trade in franchise history by acquiring underrated RB Khalil Herbert from the Bears. Thing is – that man is not a 3rd down back, and his pass-catching acumen is sparse to put it lightly (45 receptions over 4 years in the League).
Meanwhile – Brown is just starting to hit his stride as a pass-catching RB. Prior to last week, Brown and Moss were splitting pass-catching snaps, where Brown only had 8 receiving yards and 2 receptions per game. Not ideal. BUT – last game he had 5 receptions for 37 receiving yards – in a game where CIN mixed in a lot of run plays against a LV Raiders defence that had no chance.
Now – they go up against a team they can’t run the ball against (as we pointed out above), and you can bet your ass that BAL LB Roquan Smith and S Kyle Hamilton will be locked in to the CIN TEs in this one despite the production by opposing TEs to this point in the season (3rd most receiving yards allowed to TEs for BAL).
Gesicki – most obvious pick on the board after his production last week (over 100 receiving yards vs the Browns). That one seems a little too obvious for me here – which means we’re going with Brown to break the bank.
Pick: Mark Andrews Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.1u via bet365
Pick: Charlie Kolar Over 13.5 Receiving Yards (-105) 1.05u via bet365
Pick: Zay Flowers Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-111) 1.1u via 3ET
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- CLE CB Dax Hill (IR)
- BAL TE Isaiah Likely (Out)
Wow – that’s a pretty stacked board for BAL pass-catchers in this one. Let’s get into why we’re running with this stack tonight.
The first point – Zay Flowers has been absolutely rank as the leading pass-catcher in this BAL WR group. He’s gone off as of late – 4 out of 5 games with over 100 receiving yards is nothing to sneeze at. That being said – the sportsbooks have tried to make the adjustment for Zay (61.5 receiving yard line), and this CIN defence isn’t necessarily vulnerable against WRs (give up the 17th most receiving yards per game to WRs at 143). On top of that, WR Diontae Johnson has entered the lineup after getting 30% of snaps last week (with more to come, I’m sure).
Regardless – that’s way too low a line for a guy that can’t be stopped right now. No. 1 pass-catchers absolutely EAT against this CIN secondary. Last week, it was LV WR Jakobi Meyers with 105 receiving yards against this defence. The week before? AJ Brown goes for 80+. Before that? Newly-founded CLE WR Cedric Tillam with 80+ receiving. That’s all very convincing to ride the BAL WR1 to 60+ receiving yards here.
On top of all that – the Bengals D has been especially susceptible to one other position on the docket: TEs.
Bengals D: Giving up the 8th most receiving yards per game to opposing TEs (58 per game). They’re also giving up the 8th most receptions per game to TEs, so you know opposing big-men are getting volume through the pass game. With backup stud pass-catching TE Isaiah Likely ruled Out in this one – the mantle falls to Kolar and Andrews to keep this trend going.
And I believe they do that in this one. Andrews has been a lot better as of late, going for 30+ receiving yards and 3+ receptions in 4 of his last 5 games. Further, he got 49% of the snaps (leading BAL TEs) last week with Likely still in the lineup (he was at 30%).
Further, Likely has 181 receiving snaps to this point in the season (22 per game before leaving last week with the injury). Andrews and Kolar to this point? 180 receiving snaps for Andrews, and 25 for Kolar. I’m expecting those 22 snaps per game to be divvied up amongst the two healthy TEs in this one – and lest we forget, Kolar has already gone for 30+ receiving yards in 2 games this year as the 3rd string TE.
I’m playing both – because one of these guys is definitely going to eat, and there’s a possibility that both could. Good enough for me in a matchup where BAL may have troubles on the ground compared to the usual 150+ yard performance from DHen (Bengals are 18th in the League in rush yards allowed per game to RBs (93), and DHen only went for 92 rush yards in their last matchup).
Done deal.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with more NFL picks. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
NFL Week Ten: TNF Best Bets – Top Player Props for Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens
Pick: Ja’Marr Chase Over 80.5 Receiving Yards (-111) 1.1u via 3ET
Pick: Chase Brown Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.1u via Coolbet
Pick: Mark Andrews Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.1u via bet365
Pick: Charlie Kolar Over 13.5 Receiving Yards (-105) 1.05u via bet365
Pick: Zay Flowers Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-111) 1.1u via 3ET