We’re now into the double-digit weeks in the NFL Season – and man, this season has flown by.
Each week has been entertaining in its own way – made all the more exciting with our 20+ player props every week (95% of which are Overs). The analysis has been stellar, with our mismatch data leading to 25+ units ($2,500 profit if you’re a $100 bettor) on NFL player props exclusively this season. That’s coming off another positive night on TNF, where Ja’Marr and Co. took care of business for us:
As I had posted on X previously – we have joined the MoneylineGo team (https://moneylinego.com/experts/PlusMoneyJ) and will now be offering NFL full slate analysis for a very small subscription fee on that site. The good news – we’re offering one more week of full, free analysis prior to switching over. So let’s get it while the gettin’s good.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
*All data from PFF.com premium subscription.
NFL Week Ten: Sunday Slate Best Bets – Top Player Props for Every Early Game on the Slate
Game One: New York Giants vs Carolina Panthers
Pick: Xavier Legette Over 16.5 Yards Longest Reception (-114) 1.14u via NorthStar
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- NYG S Jason Pinnock (Questionable, DNP Friday, unlikely to play)
- NYG Edge Kaivon Thibodeaux (IR)
- CAR WR Adam Thielen (IR, likely to miss, DNPs all week)
We’re going back to the Legette-well for this pick. He didn’t come through on his yardage prop last week – but he got knocked out of that game for a while with injury, and he would have had the Over if he didn’t lose that tug-of-war with the DB:
Thing is – this matchup is about as good as they come for a WR like Legette. Through 9 games, the guy has 244 receiving yards (good for 27 receiving yards per game). Not super reliable – but here are his notable longest receptions to this point:
- Week 1: 18 yard longest reception
- Week 3: 35 yard longest reception
- Week 4: 17 yard longest reception
- Week 6: 13 yard longest reception
- Week 8: 23 yard longest reception
- Week 9: 26 yard longest reception
You guys see those two stats bolded at the end? For those two weeks, the Panthers were without departed WR1 Diontae Johnson – and you see how Legette responded. The opportunity is perfect for Legette to break off another 20+ yard reception – specifically in a matchup with this NYG defence.
The Giants have been pretty legit on defence as of late. Allowing a mere 216 passing yards per game to this point (11th best in the NFL), to go along with shutting down each and every TE they’ve faced (3rd best in the NFL at 35 receiving yards allowed per game). They’ve even shut down opposing WRs to an extent (16th in receiving yards allowed per game). However – the Giants have gotten gouged with the deep ball to WRs – as they’re allowing the 13th highest average yards/reception to WRs (12.6 yards per reception).
The thing is – it’s been even worse for this Giants secondary over the past few games. The WR yards/reception numbers through their last 4 games? 13.2, 14.5, 17.2, and 15.1. That would average out to 15 yards/reception allowed to WRs. For reference – that would be the 3rd highest mark in the League season-long. Yikes.
The opp is there for Legette – all he has to do is take advantage.
Pick: Tyrone Tracy Over 73.5 Rushing Yards (-110) 1.1u via Coolbet
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- NYG LT Andrew Thomas (IR)
- CAR DT Derrick Brown (IR)
We rode Tracy’s Over rushing yards last week all the way to the bank – but he didn’t exceed expectations too much due to gamescript. This week – you shouldn’t have the same concern, as even with the worst game-script imaginable in this game – Tyrone still eats.
The god-send, late-round, converted Rookie WR has been just what this Giants offence needed – as the run blocking has been much improved even without Pro Bowl LT Andrew Thomas in the lineup. Then again, it couldn’t really be any worse than last year, and they’re still 25th in the League in PFF run blocking grade. Nah – Tracy does most of it on his own (268 of his 442 rush yards are after contact). For reference on that number – that puts Tracy 2 yards behind Chiefs RB Kareem Hunt after contact (on around 25 less attempts) – and those are similar circumstances with Tracy only coming into prominence in Week 5.
Truth of the matter is – this is a good running-back against a bad rush defence. The Panthers may be healthy – but All-Pro DT Derrick Brown is still missing with his season-long injury, from a defence that needs him soooooo bad it hurts. The rush totals from RBs against this defence are top-notch, as every opposing RB group on the season has gone for 95+ rush yards (save for the Raiders in Week 3, but what else is new).
Carolina – dead last in the League when it comes to rush yards allowed to RBs per game (133), and the trend will continue with Tracy in this matchup. Don’t worry about Kraft Singles Cheese Devin Singletary – he’s long-gone from this backfield with a 28% snap share last week. Tracy is the bellcow – ride him.
Game Two: Buffalo Bills vs Indianapolis Colts
Pick: Amari Cooper Over ?? Receiving Yards (???) 1.0u via ???
*Lines haven’t been released for Cooper yet, as he’s Questionable for this one with his wrist injury. I fully expect him to play, as he logged limited practices all week and they need outside help with Keon Coleman missing this one. As soon as news comes out that Cooper is active, I’m good with whatever the books set the number at.
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- BUF WR Keon Coleman (Out)
- Colts are now healthy – DT DeForest Buckner made his debut last week in stellar fashion, and this is no longer a defence to be trifled with …
… unless you’re an opposing outside WR. Granted – things haven’t been consistent with outside WRs in BUF to this point. But how about this – put your trust in a guy that’s at full health if he’s playing (Bills are top of the playoff race, he wouldn’t be playing banged up), that’s done it before (one of few active WRs with 10,000 receiving yards), in one of the best matchups that can be had – oh, and against a defence that really won’t give up much elsewhere on the field.
Bills run game? I see it covered after watching DeForest and his boys last week vs the Vikings run game. Slot WR Khalil Shakira Shakira – up against the best CB on the Colts (by a mile) in Kenny Moore (81 PFF coverage grade on the season – that’s stud territory). Even Josh Allen and his run game might have trouble with EJ Speed buzzing across the field and stud LB Zaire Franklin looking like he hasn’t aged a day (18.22 rush yards allowed to QBs per game tells the story).
So – how about outside WRs against this Colts D? You guessed it – they eat. The only glaring hole on this Colts roster going into last offseason – was not filled – and the Colts are truly reaping what they’ve sowed. Young CB Jaylon Jones has had his good games – but on the season, this is still a secondary that allowed 202 yards to Vikings WRs in Week 9, 180+ receiving to Texans WRs (sans Nico) Week 8, and 248 receiving to Jags WRs back in Week 5 (you can check Week 6 and 7 for what they’re worth – that was against a banged up Will Levis & the Tua-less Dolphins).
Meanwhile – slot CB Kenny Moore has only given up 173 receiving yards on the season. You do that math (with the Colts allowing 1,405 receiving yards to WRs on the year). The prime opportunity for Cooper – with a QB who can sling it with the best of ’em’ – double smash-spot.
Pick: Jonathan Taylor Over 104.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-111) 1.11u via NorthStar
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- N/A – this is a healthy Bills team when it comes to the defence
- Colts WR Michael Pittman (Out)
With the Bills at (relatively) full health on defence – they still can’t stop the run. Call it the Matt Milano preseason injury – call it a focus on other areas of the defence – but this will be a problem for the Bills if it’s not solved.
Coming off that disgusting rushing effort against the Vikings last week – you think JT and the Colts aren’t here to perform this week? This is still a guy that fought for a absurd contract (and got it) with all the ability in the world – in case you forgot:
That was earlier this season – and I think the Colts offence and Flacco learned their limitations last week in the pass game. This week – they’d be absolute morons not to go JT heavy when BUF’s D is only giving up 225 yards passing per game to opposing QBs with 120 of those yards going to WRs (that’s a Top 5 mark in the NFL vs WRs). Where else are all those passing yards going?
To the RBs. Bills give up the most receiving yards to RBs in the NFL at 58 per game (and 2nd place ain’t close with the Bucs at 49). And would you look at that – JT with Flacco as the starting QB last week: 5 targets and 3 receptions.
But it isn’t just that! They also give up 100 rush yards per game to RBs, with recent performances such as 137 rush yards allowed to MIA RBs last week, 75+ rush yards allowed to TEN RBs in Week 7 (in a game TEN wasn’t even close in), and 113 rush yards allowed to Breece Hall in Week 6 (that’s a guy with 502 rush yards in 9 games this year). There’s enough meat on the bone for me to think that the Colts RBs will have success on the ground – and through the air – against this defence.
And would you look at that – JT is the only Colts RB projected to have 80%+ of the opportunities from the backfield (his career average is comfortably above that figure, and Trey Sermon is garbage). Ride this one to the bank.
Game Three: Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints
Pick: Tyler Allgeier Over 35.5 Rush Yards (-105) 1.05u via Betway
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- The whole NO WR core and two starting interior OLineman for the Saints (OG Patrick and C McCoy) – leading to an incompetent offence
I wasn’t wrong – just early. I rode Allgeier last week thinking they’d blow out the Cowboys with their banged up D and a good game script. Things didn’t fully materialize with the Cowboys keeping it closer than expected, and Bijan lighting the torch. The thing is …. and this might be conspiracy thinking …. I think this coaching staff is keeping Bijan healthy with alternating work:
- Let’s just go the last 4 weeks – Allgeiers snap % has gone 41%, 23%, 35%, 25%
- Things get more glaring when it comes to RB opportunities: Allgeier’s goes like this: Week 6 was 19 touches (more than Bijan, who was at 18), Week 7 was 6 touches (way less than Bijan at 24), Week 8 was 12 touches (to Bijan’s 13 rush attempts), and Week 9 it was 8 touches (way less than Bijan who had 26)
Okay – enough with the conspiracy (I’m giving the ATL coaching staff way more credit than I should). The fact still remains – Allgeier gets work, especially in gamescripts where this team is salting the game away (he put up 105 yards rushing vs CAR in Week 6 in a game that was never close). I expect this game to play out similarly – with the Saints offence chugging uphill due to key pass-catcher injuries.
This was already a bad Saints offence – and now they have no notable pass-catchers aside from RB Kamara. It all lines up – friendly game script, projected blowout – and the bullet-proof, super reliable trend of even-numbered week production for Allgeier (noted above). Lock it in.
Pick: Darnell Mooney Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.1u via Coolbet
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- NO CBs Adebo and McKinstry (both Out)
- ATL WR Drake London (Questionable, expected to play)
Oh, a matchup with the NO Saints defence without their top 3 corners (I’m including Lattimore here, just traded away to WAS) – time for opposing WRs to eat. Drake London messed with his hip last week, and I’m not expecting him to be his usual self in this one (wouldn’t surprise me if he was though).
The thing is – it doesn’t matter if London’s great in this one – because steady WR2 Mooney (money with two O’s) is always going to eat in good matchups.
45+ receiving yards in 7 of 9 games this year – he actually has the most receiving yards of all pass-catchers on ATL this year (at 588, in the same # of games as London). That’s solid as hell – and he’s a lock going up against this banged up NO secondary that’s given up the 5th most receiving yards per game to opposing WRs on the year (163).
Pick: Taysom Hill Over 43.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-140) 1.4u via Bet99
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- NO RBs Kendre Miller and Jamaal Williams (Miller IR, Williams projected Out with a DNP Friday)
- The whole NO WR core
You don’t say? A lack of backup RBs for the Saints in a game where they don’t have their two starting WRs in the game? It’s Taysom-time ladies and gentleman – as you know this guy won’t lose his place in the NO offence when he’s healthy.
Here’s his production last week: 60 all-purpose yards on 9 touches. Actually – in every game he’s played this year, he has 18+ rush yards, and the last two weeks have been stellar from a receiving standpoint (no surprise that’s been with Shaheed and Olave Out).
It’s rinse and repeat for White Thunder in this one – let Dennis Allen + Sean Payton have a drink together on the couch with their favourite pet-project coming through in this one.
Game Four: Denver Broncos vs KC Chiefs
Pick: Kareem Hunt Over 82.5 Rush + Receiving Yards (-116) 1.16u via NorthStar
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- DEN LB Alec Singleton (IR)
- KC RB Isaiah Pacheco (IR)
Kareem The Dream just keeps trucking ahead with Pacheco Out of the lineup. The guy’s a beast – what else is there to say? He may have lost his explosive-play element due to age – but his years in the League have primed him to run effectively behind a good OLine as a bellcow back. And would you look at that – Hunt has 20+ carries and at least one reception in every game since Week 5. Things aren’t changing on that front.
Thing is – it’s really hard to go elsewhere in this matchup with props. You may as well throw the whole DEN offence out going up against a Chiefs D that stops every position but TE (sorry, not trusting Trautman). On top of that – you have the DEN defence, who’s been low-key good against the pass (save for last game where the Ravens pass-attack went off – as it usually does). No surprise when you have All-Pro CB Pat Surtain in the lineup to go along with a decent pass-rush. DEN does well against TEs too, where they’re 11th best in the League in TE receiving yards per game allowed (only 41 per game).
I’m not saying KC TEs won’t have success – but I have much more faith in 135+ scrimmage yards per game allowed to RBs from DEN and a gamescript that has to favour running the ball. Lock it for my only pick of this game.
Game Five: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Washington Commanders
Pick: Jaylen Warren Over 28.5 Rushing Yards (-110) 1.1u via Bet365
Pick: Najee Harris Over 63.5 Rushing Yards (-110) 1.1u via Bet365
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- WAS DT Jonathan Allen (IR)
- WAS CB Marshon Lattimore (Out)
Is there any RB that has trouble producing against this WAS defence (made all the worse with Pro Bowl DT Jonathan Allen Out)? The answer is no: with every opposing RB duo going for 85+ rushing yards (the only team in the NFL to allow this level of production in every game). That includes RB rooms such as the Bucs, the Browns, and the Giants. There are decent RBs on those teams to be sure – but no studs.
And I’m not saying these are stud RBs – but they’re pretty damn good. Najee has pulled a “call an ambulance, but not for me” on all of us, looking like his Rookie-self these last few weeks with 100+ rushing yards in three straight games. Warren has dealt with injury through the year, but he’s gaining traction in this new Russ Wilson-led offence – as he’s at 39% of the snaps or higher in the last two games, and has 90 of his 151 rush yards in his last two games.
You can say those PIT RB statistics are inflated with good gamescripts lately – but then consider that WAS is weakest against the run, and the PIT D is good enough to limit Daniels (to an extent). At worst, one of these hits. Lock em’ both in.
Pick: Jayden Daniels Over 223.5 Passing Yards (-110) 1.1u via Coolbet
Pick: Terry McLaurin Over 21.5 Yards Longest Reception (-110) 1.1u via Bet99
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- N/A
Even with the Steelers D rocking a pretty healthy unit going into this one – they’re susceptible through the air. Yes – you can run on this team with some success if you want to run every play away from TJ Watt (Steelers are still 8th in the NFL in RB rush yards allowed per game, mind you). With how athletic this Steelers LB core is, combined with the pass rush, it’s no surprise they’re stuffing mobile QBs with Bo Nix, Daniel Jones, and A Rich all going for 25 rush yards or lower in their matchups.
So, what’s the answer? Throw the ball as much as you can – specifically to outside WRs on deep shots. PIT is allowing the 10th most pass yards per game at 238, and they’re allowing the 6th highest yards per reception to WRs (13.6).
To make things more glaring – it’s likely that the gamescript favours the WAS pass-attack in this one with PITs offence looking unreal as of late – and Daniel’s has shown up as a big-time thrower with 225+ pass yards in 6 of 8 full games this year.
On top of that – McLaurin leads this team by a mile when it comes to receptions over 20+ yards (double the receptions (6) and yards (252) than the next WAS pass-catcher). These two will slap this weekend.
Game Six: San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Christian McCaffrey Over 90.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115) 1.15u via NorthStar
Pick: Jordan Mason Over 19.5 Rushing Yards (-110) 1.1u via Coolbet
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- The whole Bucs offence is having issues with their two starting WRs Out and Baker banged up, but playing (DNP Weds and Thurs)
I note the key injuries as the Bucs offence – and that’s basically the story here. I don’t expect TB to put much on the board, as they’re going to be relying on below average talent at WR and banged up Baker, against a SF defence that shuts down the only thing the Bucs have going for them – TE (5th best as a defence in receiving yards allowed to TEs per game, which shouldn’t be a surprise with prime All Pro LB Fred Warner locked in).
The thing with McCaffrey (and really any guy coming back from injury) is – you don’t activate the guy not to use him – especially in a game you’re expected to win. On top of that, sportsbooks seem to be accounting for a reduced workload from McCaffrey (based on the lower yardage line – even though it’s still high lol). The beauty of it all is – McCaffrey can turn just one play into an Over in a good matchup – and boy is this a good matchup.
Despite Bucs DT Vita Vea turning back the clock on the inside – this Bucs D is still giving up massive production to opposing RBs. They’re allowing 97 rush yards per game to opposing RBs (not too bad) – but they’re 2nd worst in the League when it comes to receiving yards allowed to RBs per game (at 49).
So, the bottom line – projected gamescript looks good for the Niners, McCaffrey should have enough juice to pass his line (even with a limited workload) – and we have the built-in fail safe with Mason if/when the game gets out of hand. Let’s rock.
Game Seven: Minnesota Vikings vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: Aaron Jones Over 97.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-111) 1.11u via NorthStar
Pick: Cam Akers Over 15.5 Rushing Yards (-110) 1.1u via Coolbet
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- JAX QB Trevor Lawrence (Questionable, trending towards Out)
Mac Jones likely starting at QB for the Jags? Yeah, this isn’t going to end well in Jacksonville. Even with Trevor Lawrnece starting – I was expecting a low output game offensively, similar to how the Colts got held up last game vs the Vikes. So – either way we’re fine with the game script for a Vikes rush attack.
Then you look at the JAX defence. Not great against the pass (nice 275 pass yards per game allowed), but they’ve been missing their top CB Tyson Campbell (came back Week 7), and this game could get out of hand fast. I feel much more confident targeting this JAX rush defence – as they’re giving up 140 scrimmage yards to opposing RBs per game.
That’s good news for Jones (who has 810 scrimmage yards in 8 starts this year – never falling below 68 scrimmage yards in a game thus far). But it’s also good news for Cam Akers – as he’s taken over the “change-of-pace” role from Ty Chandler.
There’s a reason the Vikes traded for Akers this year – they needed depth at RB with questions about Chandler, and they knew he fit the scheme well after playing on the squad last year. Last weeks’ snaps: Akers 22%, Chandler 0%. And Akers looked pretty darn explosive running the ball last week, going for 46 rush yards on 6 carries (that was close to Jones’ output on the ground).
It all lines up – these are the plays for this game, with everything else being quite unpredictable due to game script.
Game Eight: New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears
Pick: Caleb Williams Over 205.5 Passing Yards (-108) 1.08u via Pinnacle
Pick: Cole Kmet Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (+108) 1.0u via Pinnacle
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- NE S Kyle Dugger (Out)
- NE LB Christian Ellis (Out)
- NE S Jabrill Peppers (Out, still suspied)
Where do we start with this one? The most obvious stats are NE giving up the 12th most pass yards per game at 234 to go along with the 15th most receiving yards per game to TEs at 51. But there’s additional context for this one.
The injuries are one part of it, with three starters on the interior of the pass coverage unit Out (for one reason or another). The other side of it is positive regression: as we’ve seen Caleb and Kmet put up stinkers (like they did last week); but they’ve always come back to put up huge numbies.
Since Caleb has gained his footing in the NFL (following Week 2), he’s gone under 175 pass yards twice. His other games? 363 pass yards vs Indy Week 3, 304 pass yards vs CAR Week 5, 226 pass yards vs JAX Week 6 (to go along with 4 TDs), and a healthy 217 pass yards vs ARI last week. How can you bet against those numbers, in a matchup he should own with TEN QB Mason Rudolph’s 240 pass yard performance hanging in the rafters vs this NE secondary last week.
Then – Kmet. The guy has really only been the starting TE of this team since Week 2 (they tried to big-brain everyone with Gerald Everett starting Week 1 – dummies). In that time, he’s had three games under 35 receiving yards (including last week). His follow-up performances when this happened before? 97 receiving yards and 57 receiving yards. The trend should continue.
This stack will crush.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with more NFL picks. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
NFL Week Ten: Sunday Slate Best Bets – Top Player Props for Every Early Game on the Slate
Game One: New York Giants vs Carolina Panthers
Pick: Xavier Legette Over 16.5 Yards Longest Reception (-114) 1.14u via NorthStar
Pick: Tyrone Tracy Over 73.5 Rushing Yards (-110) 1.1u via Coolbet
Game Two: Buffalo Bills vs Indianapolis Colts
Pick: Amari Cooper Over ?? Receiving Yards (???) 1.0u via ???
Pick: Jonathan Taylor Over 104.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-111) 1.11u via NorthStar
Game Three: Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints
Pick: Tyler Allgeier Over 35.5 Rush Yards (-105) 1.05u via Betway
Pick: Darnell Mooney Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.1u via Coolbet
Pick: Taysom Hill Over 43.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-140) 1.4u via Bet99
Game Four: Denver Broncos vs KC Chiefs
Pick: Kareem Hunt Over 82.5 Rush + Receiving Yards (-116) 1.16u via NorthStar
Game Five: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Washington Commanders
Pick: Jaylen Warren Over 28.5 Rushing Yards (-110) 1.1u via Bet365
Pick: Najee Harris Over 63.5 Rushing Yards (-110) 1.1u via Bet365
Pick: Jayden Daniels Over 223.5 Passing Yards (-110) 1.1u via Coolbet
Pick: Terry McLaurin Over 21.5 Yards Longest Reception (-110) 1.1u via Bet99
Game Six: San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Christian McCaffrey Over 90.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115) 1.15u via NorthStar
Pick: Jordan Mason Over 19.5 Rushing Yards (-110) 1.1u via Coolbet
Game Seven: Minnesota Vikings vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: Aaron Jones Over 97.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-111) 1.11u via NorthStar
Pick: Cam Akers Over 15.5 Rushing Yards (-110) 1.1u via Coolbet
Game Eight: New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears
Pick: Caleb Williams Over 205.5 Passing Yards (-108) 1.08u via Pinnacle
Pick: Cole Kmet Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (+108) 1.0u via Pinnacle