Well shit – that was a disappointing day of College Football on what was projected to be the most exciting day of the NCAAF season. The product that never disappoints: NFL Football, where we had two great games with the giants of the AFC and NFC taking each other on. As for our betting action in those games – we had our first positive day in a minute (3-2, $80 profit if you’re a $100 unit bettor, taking us up to +$4,947 profit on the season). That’s only a sign of things to come for what I believe are great reads for the Sunday slate:
As I had posted on X previously – we have joined the MoneylineGo team (https://moneylinego.com/experts/PlusMoneyJ), but will still be offering NFL full slate analysis for free. Why make anyone pay for this in-depth analysis? I love writing this all up – and I love sharing knowledge and clean-breakdowns for whomever may want it.
Without further ado – let’s get to the analysis.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
*All data from PFF.com premium subscription.
2024 NFL Week Sixteen: Sunday Slate Best Bets – Top Player Props for Every Game On The Sunday Slate
Game One: Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Tee Higgins Over 23.5 Yards Long Reception (-113) 1.13u via Pinnacle
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- CLE DT Maurice Hurst (IR)
- CLE LB Jeremiah Owusu-Karamoah (IR)
- CLE CB Greg Newsome (IR)
- CLE CB Martin Emerson Jr (Questionable, LP Thurs and Fri, likely to play)
- CIN OT Orlando Brown Jr (Questionable, LP Fri, likely to play)
Death, taxes, and beating the CLE Browns D on deep-balls. This happens week, after week, after week – and while Chase could definitely get his in this matchup – I’m going back to the well with Higgins here.
Starting things off – this CLE D. They’re allowing the highest receiving yards per reception mark to WRs on the season (15.30), and despite holding the weak KC WR core to 7.42 yards per reception last week (still think that 30 yarder by Worthy was a pass), things haven’t been better lately. In Week 14 vs the Steelers (w/o Pickens), 3 PIT pass-catchers had long receptions of 20+ yards. Week 13 – 3 DEN WRs went for 23+ yard long receptions. Week 12 – 4 PIT pass-catchers went for 22+ yard long receptions. You get the picture.
And Higgins has been absolutely solid on the long reception front. 24+ yard long receptions in 5 of his last 6 outings – not too shabby. He’s also had a 31+ yard long reception in 3 of his last 4 games – even better.
With the Browns switching to DTR at QB – I’m not thinking that CIN will be down (on the scoreboard) for much of this game (if at all). But we’re not going for the volume play here – we just need one, and with this matchup, it’s almost a guarantee based on recent box scores.
Pick: Chase Brown Over 107.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115) 1.15u via Bet99
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- CLE DT Maurice Hurst (IR)
- CLE LB Jeremiah Owusu-Karamoah (IR)
- CLE CB Greg Newsome (IR)
- CLE CB Martin Emerson Jr (Questionable, LP Thurs and Fri, likely to play)
- CIN OT Orlando Brown Jr (Questionable, LP Fri, likely to play)
Hard not to love Chase Brown in this spot with how much work he’s been getting lately – plus his outstanding production profile. With CIN projected to be leading most of this game – he should get just as much work this time out. And though the CLE D isn’t bad when it comes to opposing RB production (allowing just over 100 scrimmage yards to RB rooms on the season – Top 10), it really doesn’t matter when it comes to Brown.
Why is that? Well, let’s start with the fact that Brown has 100+ scrimmage yards in each of his last 4 games. What’s important to note is 2 of the defences over that span are just as stellar defences against RBs as CLE is on a season-long basis (TEN & PIT). No matter the matchup – Chase is putting numbers on the board.
But touching back on the CLE defence – they’ve been worse against RBs as of late. 4 straight games allowing opposing RB groups to go for 84+ rushing yards, and 3 of their last 4 where they allowed 23+ receiving yards to RBs. The average scrimmage yards given up to RBs over those 4 games? 118.25 yards. With Brown buzzing the way he is – I imagine he’ll get to that mark in this one.
Game Two: New York Giants vs Atlanta Falcons
Pick: Bijan Robinson Over 112.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115) 1.15u via NorthStar
Pick: Tyler Allgeier Over 35.5 Rushing Yards (-110) 1.10u via Betano
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- NYG DT Dexter Lawrence (IR)
- NYG OLB Brian Burns (Questionable, LP Fri, true question to play)
- NYG MLB Bobby Okereke (IR)
- NYG S Tyler Nubin (IR)
- NYG CB Deonte Banks (Questionable, LP all week, likely to play)
We have a double banger for this one – in part because this NYG offence is damaged goods at this point in the season (even more so than they were to start the season).
You see the injury list for the Giants – and then add in the fact that whichever QB ends up starting for New York (should be Drew Lock) – has not been good. This ATL defence has had its struggles as well – but with how they performed against Desmond Ridder last week – I can’t see this NYG offence scoring many points.
Now – add to that the fact that the Falcons are rolling out Rookie QB Michael Penix for his first NFL start – and what do you think is going to happen? The most probable result is a lot of run-game volume for ATL – especially considering they have two RBs that combined for 178 scrimmage yards last week in a similar game-script.
Things only get better when you look at this NYG defence. They’re allowing the 3rd most rush yards per game to RBs (114.57) to go along with the 6th most receiving yards per game to RBs (40.29). In fact – they’re giving up the most scrimmage yards per game to RBs over that span – and things haven’t been better lately.
8 (!!!!) straight RB rooms have gone for 125+ scrimmage yards against this defence – and that includes teams like the Cowboys, the Panthers, and the Commanders (all of which have struggled running the ball as of late).
That’s not even getting into Bijan + Allgeier’s production as of late. Bijan has 3 straight games with 100+ scrimmage yards – and Allgeier has 43+ rush yards in 3 of the last 4 full games he’s played. Lock these guys in for a big day – as the Falcons can hopefully get their first-time starting QB through the game with their rushing attack.
Game Three: Arizona Cardinals vs Carolina Panthers
Pick: Chuba Hubbard Over 90.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-112) 1.12u via NorthStar
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- ARI DT Bilal Nichols (IR)
- ARI LB Mack Wilson (Out)
- ARI Edge Dennis Gardeck (IR)
- ARI CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (Questionable, LP all week, likely to play)
- CAR WR Xavier Leggette (Out)
- CAR WR Jalen Coker (Questionable, LP all week, likely to play)
- CAR OL Ikem Ekwonu and Robert Hunt (Questionable, both dealing with illness, I’d say they play)
We all know how CAR wants to attack every game on offence – establish the run game and plug away to open up the pass for Bryce Young. While they don’t always have success doing this – I believe they can do it in this matchup.
The ARI defence has been a bit of a mystery all year. They’ve played well in some respects, as they’ve held 3 of the last 5 WR groups they’ve faced to 135 receiving yards or less (holding Jets and Patriots WRs to under 75 receiving yards respectively). TEs have also had their struggles vs the ARI D, where they’ve held 3 of the last 5 TE groups they’ve faced to 40 receiving yards or less.
However – they have been giving up more production to RBs as of late. On the season, the ARI D doesn’t rank too bad, allowing the 10th most rush yards per game to RBs (104.57) and the 8th most receiving yards per game to RBs (39.71). But – in 3 of their last 4 outings – this defence has allowed opposing RB rooms to go for 105+ scrimmage yards. That includes Patriots RBs last week and Zach Charbonnet with 190+ scrimmage yards the week before. Gross
While Chuba hasn’t been as productive lately – he’s still been solid. He had 100+ scrimmage yards vs a tough Philly defence in Week 14, and he’s been getting more receiving work with Jonathon Brooks re-tearing his ACL (30 receiving yards over the last 2 games).
I have a feeling this game may be close – with both teams relying on the run to beat down the opposing defence where they’re weakest. Hubbard is just one part of that equation.
Pick: James Conner Over 106.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-112) 1.12u via NorthStar
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- CAR LB Shaq Thompson (IR)
- CAR DE A’Shawn Robinson (Questionable, DNP Fri, unlikely to play)
- CAR OLB Jadaveon Clowney (Questionable, FP Fri, likely to play)
This – is the other part of the equation. You thought ARIs defence was weak against RBs? Take a look at CAR.
The CAR defence is allowing the most rush yards per game to RBs by a MILE at 141.50 (next closest is CHI at 115.70). That’s enough on its own – but then they’re also giving up 30 receiving yards per game to RBs. Cowboys RBs went for 180+ scrimmage yards vs this defence last week, Eagles RBs went for 155+ the week before, and Bucs RBs went for 250+ the week before that. Nasty production – and a clear hole in this defence.
But then, we look to Conner. Just a ho-hum 120+ scrimmage yards in each of his last two games – and that came against NE and SEA (both of which have been better against the run as of late). It doesn’t seem like any other ARI RB is garnering significant touches in must-win situations – and with a playoff spot still up for grabs for the Cardinals – I expect them to ride Conner until the wheels fall off.
The Cards could turn to the pass game in this one – but why would they risk the higher chance of turnover-worthy plays that comes with the pass game when they can gain 5 yards per carry (at least) on the ground? Doesn’t seem like the smart plan – so why not go in on Conner for one more week.
Game Four: Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears
Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 123.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115) 1.15u via Betway
Pick: Craig Reynolds Over 19.5 Rushing Yards (-105) 1.05u via Coolbet
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- DET RB David Montgomery (Out)
- DET OG Graham Glasgow (Questionable, LP Fri, likely to play)
- DET WR Khalif Raymond (IR)
- CHI DT Andrew Billings (IR)
- CHI DT Gervon Dexter (Questionable, LP Fri, likely to play)
- CHI DBs Jaquon Brisker and Jaylon Jones (IR)
- CHI CB Jaylon Johnson (Questionable, Illness, true question to play)
I just can’t leave Gibbs off my card this week – no matter what his line is. David Montgomery Out (Reynolds should get some work, and he’s coverage for this bet just in case volume tilts to 50-50), a projected game-script that has DET ahead in this one, and a CHI D that can’t stop RBs – does it get better?
The answer: no. The CHI defence has been getting gashed on the ground as of late – so much so, that they’re now allowing the 2nd most rush yards per game to RBs (115.57). But they’re also giving up 32 receiving yards per game to RBs, and here are their scrimmage yards allowed to RBs lately: 134 to MIN RBs last week, 160 to SF RBs the week before (w/o CMC), and 253 to these DET RBs the week before that. Clean work.
And the fact that Jahmyr didn’t have a great week on the ground last time out – not a concern. Why? Because he went for 81 receiving yards, leading him to 100+ scrimmage yards in 3 of his last 4 games (two of which were against tougher defences).
If you think the Lions are down in the dumps after getting beat by the Bills and losing Monty last week – you’re probably right. But I’m taking the bet that they’re angry, and they want to get one back this week vs a dysfunctional Bears team. That means smash-mouth running – which should easily lead Gibbs & Reynolds to high volume so he can crush this line.
Pick: Tim Patrick Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-112) 1.12u via NorthStar
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- DET RB David Montgomery (Out)
- DET OG Graham Glasgow (Questionable, LP Fri, likely to play)
- DET WR Khalif Raymond (IR)
- CHI DT Andrew Billings (IR)
- CHI DT Gervon Dexter (Questionable, LP Fri, likely to play)
- CHI DBs Jaquon Brisker and Jaylon Jones (IR)
- CHI CB Jaylon Johnson (Questionable, Illness, true question to play)
The reclamation project of Timmy P has come full circle – as ever since DET lost WR3 Khalif Raymond – this guy has been as solid as they come.
Really though – these are Patrick’s last 5 games and his receiving yardage production over that time (starting with the most recent) : 30, 42, 48, 55, and 26 yards. He actually had his season high snap % last week (81%), but also hasn’t dipped below 50% in that 5 game span. That’s solid work for a guy they picked off the scraps of Free Agency – and he has a pretty good matchup with a CHI secondary that has no answers lately.
4 of the last 5 WR groups they’ve faced have gone for 149+ receiving yards (2 of which went for 190+). That’s pretty crazy considering they’re only allowing 138.86 receiving yards per game to WRs on the season. But it’s not just that – because we also have to look at the coverage scheme for CHI to get a better idea of why it’s Patrick’s time to shine.
The CHI D plays the 11th most zone coverage in the NFL (71.4%), and if you’re looking at DET pass-catchers – it’s crazy how much production Tim has against zone.
Patrick only has 46 receiving yards vs man coverage (Amon-Ra and Jamo both have 160+ vs man) – but when it comes to DET WRs vs zone coverage – Patrick has 302 receiving yards. That’s a big disparity in man vs zone coverage production – and with CHI showing a lot of zone looks in this one – it would be crazy if Tim didn’t get some good work.
While the gamescrip isn’t exactly in favour of a pass-heavy DET attack – this line is so low that Patrick doesn’t need a ton of volume to hit it. Lock him in.
Game Five: LA Rams vs New York Jets
Pick: Cooper Kupp Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-112) 1.12u via Coolbet
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- NYJ DT Quinnen Williams (Questionable, DNP all week, unlikely to play)
- NYJ DE Jermaine Johnson (IR)
- NYJ LBs CJ Mosley and Zaire Barnes (IR)
- NYJ CB Michael Carter (Out)
It’s time for a bounce-back my friends. Kupp ruined everyone’s Fantasy Football Playoff dreams last week with a big-ol goose-egg – which is exactly why he is going to go off this Sunday.
Let’s get real with Kupp’s production to this point in the season – honestly, not bad for a guy who’s up there in age. He’s had 80+ receiving yards in 4 of his last 7 games – and while he’s been struggling lately – the guy still puts up numbies against man coverage.
Speaking of which – the Jets play the 9th most man coverage in the NFL (31% of the time), and if I’m bringing that up – you know Kupp does well against man.
The guy ranks higher in receiving yards vs man coverage (209) than stud WRs such as DK Metcalf, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Khalil Shakir – in less games played than any one of them. While this guy can beat any coverage up (402 receiving yards vs zone), he’s especially potent vs man coverage.
And on top of that edge – the NYJ secondary has been very disappointing as of late. They’ve allowed 200+ receiving yards to WRs in 3 of their last 4 outings, and two of those WR groups (JAX & IND) have only reached that mark a handful of times this year. There’s a serious problem in the NYJ DB room – and with every NYJ defender keying in on Puka – where do you think the ball’s going to go?
The Rams secondary isn’t anything to write home about either (we’ll get to that), which means the rejuvenated NYJ pass-attack will likely put up points in this one. That means more passing work for Kupp – who should have a day with his proven production, the juicy matchup, and a good game-script. Let’s get it.
Pick: Garrett Wilson Over 21.5 Yards Longest Reception (-120) 1.20u via NorthStar
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- NYJ OT Tyronn Smith (IR)
- NYJ OG Alijah Vera-Tucker (Questionable, FP Fri, likely to play)
- NYJ RB Braelon Allen (Questionable, FP Fri, likely to play)
- LAR LB Troy Reeder (IR)
- LAR S John Johnson (IR)
- LAR CB Derion Kendrick (IR)
Yessir – we’re going with positive regression on the NYJ’s side of things as well. It seems like every first-read from Rodgers is (i) Adams – then (ii) Wilson. I think that changes this week – with the LAR defence keying in on Adams to prevent him from another 198 receiving yard game like last week.
But it’s not just that – Wilson has been going ham on the long reception train as well lately. 17+ yard long receptions in each of his last 3 games, and 22+ in his last 2. The Jets offence is starting to get the message – throw the ball downfield and let your WRs work. Things only get better with Breece Hall getting reduced snaps due to the nagging injury he’s coming back from.
And this LAR defence – man, they can get gouged by the deep ball. They have the 2nd highest receiving yards per reception mark to WRs in the NFL (14.67), and things aren’t getting better as the season goes on. Last week – 3 SF pass-catchers had 16+ yard receptions vs this defence – and that was in a game with heavy rain, where SF only scored in the single-digits. The game before that – 4 BUF pass-catchers had 21+ yard long receptions vs this defence. Even when the Rams D went up against a shitty NO WR core – they gave up 21+ yard long receptions to 3 NO pass-catchers.
The way to beat this LAR defence? Long passes. What the NYJ offence has been specializing in as of late? Long passes. Rack it up.
Game Six: Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts
Pick: Tyjae Spears Over (??) Receiving Yards (-110) 1.10u via (??)*
*Take this line whenever it opens – whatever it ends up settling at, even if Pollard is playing.
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- TEN RB Tony Pollard (Questionable, DNP all week, unlikely to play)
- TEN C Lloyd Cushenberry (IR)
- IND LBs EJ Speed and Samson Ebukam (Out)
No Will Levis in? More Mason Rudolph check-downs because of his lack of mobility? Yup – but that’s just one part of the equation.
Another part – how bad this IND defence has been at covering opposing RBs. They’re only giving up the 13th most receiving yards per game to RBs (34.93), but the consistency with which they give up this yardage is something to behold. 8 straight games with 25+ receiving yards given up to opposing RBs – and some of those RB rooms are embarrassing when compared to the all-purpose skill Spears has.
Speaking of Spears – he had a recent uptick in receiving production (87 receiving yards last week – not a big deal) with Tony Pollard missing part of their last game (he’s likely to miss this one with DNPs all week and nothing to play for). I’m not saying this guy has the most consistent production – but when given the chance – he lives up to the billing.
Even if Pollard is playing – he’s not playing his usual 70-80% of the snaps with his nagging injury – and Spears is at full-health for the first time in a while. Lock him in.
Game Seven: Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders
Pick: Kenneth Gainwell Over 16.5 Rushing Yards (+106) 1.0u via Pinnacle
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- PHI TE Dallas Goedert (IR)
- WAS DT Jonathan Allen (IR)
- WAS S Jeremy Chinn (Questionable, FP Fri, likely to play)
Does it make any sense to give your star RB (Saquon) a little less work after locking up both a Playoff Spot and the Division? Just ask the Eagles, as Gainwell’s production lately has been indicative of that being the case.
I mean – 20+ rush yards in 5 of his last 6 games – this guy has been a very good complementary back to the MVP candidate in recent outings. I know Saquon has been banged up a few times over that period of time – but isn’t that all the more reason to give Gainwell some more work? Especially when he’s going for over 5 yards per carry over that time. On top of that – he had 40 receiving yards his last game out, showing he’s not to be trifled with in the receiving game either.
And the key to beating WAS – running the ball. They’ve been quite good against QBs and WRs as of late – but they’re still allowing the 6th most rush yards per game to RBs on the season (110.36). And while WAS has been better at preventing RB rush yards lately – they haven’t had to play one of the five best run-blocking OLines in the NFL (Eagles have the 5th best PFF run block grade at 75.7).
Whichever way this PHI offence wants to cut up the WAS defence – Gainwell is getting some work. With a line like this – it’s easy money.
Pick: Devonta Smith Over 20.5 Yards Longest Reception (-115) 1.15u via Bet99
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- PHI TE Dallas Goedert (IR)
- WAS DT Jonathan Allen (IR)
- WAS S Jeremy Chinn (Questionable, FP Fri, likely to play)
Shit – did Devonta Smith find something last week? Season-high in targets (11) and receptions (11)? To go along with 109 receiving yards? That’s clean.
But – with PHI projected to lead in this game and win outright – we have to look to the long reception line – especially with a feast-or-famine defence like WAS.
They’re only giving up the 13th highest receiving yards per reception mark to WRs on the season (12.65). But – look lately. In 3 of their last 5 games – they’re giving up more than 17 receiving yards per reception. Last week – 3 NO pass-catchers went for 19+ yard long receptions – and that’s a very bad NO pass-catching group. The week before that? 3 TEN pass-catchers went for 27+ yard long receptions. So what about Devonta?
Surprisingly – solid when it comes to long receptions. He’s only had 40+ receiving yards in 1 of his last 4 games – yet he has a 21+ yard long reception in 3 of his last 4 outings. You starting to get the picture? Even when Smith doesn’t have absurd volume like he did last week – he’s still hitting the long ones.
Now – he has a good matchup, with all the attention on AJ Brown – and a decent enough game-script with the WAS offence putting up somewhat of a fight (even if it’s only for two quarters). Let’s go.
Game Eight: Minnesota Vikings vs Seattle Seahawks
Pick: Aaron Jones Over 81.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115) 1.15u via NorthStar
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- N/A
I keep going back to the well with AJ in good matchups – and he’s been rewarding me in kind.
The production has been so solid for an RB cast-away from the great state of Wisconsin (fyi, he moved to a better team in MIN). I mean – 84+ scrimmage yards in 3 of his last 4 games, with 2 outings at 100+ – the guy is not slowing down. And that’s a good thing – because the Vikings are going to need him to beat a stingy SEA secondary.
The SEA D – has held each of the last 5 WR groups they’ve faced to 145 receiving yards or less. And there are some good WR groups in that mix (NYJ and GB). Meanwhile – they’ve given up 125+ scrimmage yards to RB rooms in each of their last 3 games, with absolutely no answer for opposing RB production.
The finishing point – MIN should beat SEA handily in this one while leading most of the way. That only means more opportunities for AJ to pop a few off. He might only need a few to hit this line with how bad this SEA D has been against RBs.
Pick: DK Metcalf Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-115) 1.15u via NorthStar
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- MIN LB Ivan Pace (IR)
- MIN S Harrison Smith (Questionable LP Fri, true question to play)
Man – a pretty disappointing last half of the season for DK. The guy’s been at 70 receiving yards or less in his last 5 games – which correlates with the Seahawks losing steam towards the 2nd half of the schedule.
The thing is – this guy has finally been starting to get healthy after being on the injury report from Weds to Fri week after week – so something was obviously wrong. This week – he came off the injury report on Thursday – showing he hasn’t suffered any setbacks and is well on his way to relatively full health.
And while you might think the emergence of JSN has left DKs production in the shadows – you might be surprised when it comes to those two SEA WRs vs zone coverage. It’s crazy to think that JSN has over 100 more receiving yards vs man coverage when compared to DK this year (317 vs 195). Thing is – when it comes to zone coverage, DK is neck-and-neck with JSN at 519 receiving yards vs 520. While you think DK would dominate man coverage with his insane speed and physical, contest-catch ability – that’s not the case.
And would you look at that – the MIN defence plays the 3rd most zone coverage in the NFL (76.9%). Flores’ scheme is predicated on zone coverage with blitz work – and with DK’s line set at the same number as JSN’s due to recent production – it would be crazy not to take this line.
Thank God Geno is playing in this one – or I’d have no faith. Fact of the matter is – Geno is Top 10 in pass yards per game over the last 3 years – so this one’s as likely to cash as I’ve ever seen.
Game Nine: New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills
Pick: Sorry, no action in this one, it’s a gross game with absurd lines for Bills players – so I’ll take a pass
Game Ten: Jacksonville Jaguars vs Las Vegas Raiders
Pick: Brian Thomas Jr Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.10u via Betano
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- JAX WRs Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis (IR)
- JAX TE Evan Engram (IR)
- JAX QB Trevor Lawrence (IR)
- LV DBs Jakorian Bennett and Marcus Epps (IR)
- LV CB Nate Hobbs
- LV DL Maxx Crosby and Christian Wilkins (IR)
Man – has BTJ been absolutely potent this year. The guy would be the OROY in some of the more recent years with his outstanding production profile – and things might’ve been better if TLaw stayed healthy through the whole season.
Alas – we’re left with Mac Jones at the helm. But it’s not like that’s been a bad thing lately. BTJ has still gone for 75+ receiving yards in each of his last 4 games – showing he is truly so special that any QB can succeed with him. Doesn’t matter the matchup – this guy has juice.
And now – he gets to face a LV defence that has no answers in the secondary for solid WRs. Even with the ATL WRs only going for 67 receiving yards as a whole last week – Drake London still went for 50+ as the primary WR. That game is easily explainable to the extent that ATL didn’t have to throw the ball with Desmond Ridder unable to move the LV offence down the field.
Now – LV has Aidan O’Connell back at the helm. Should mean more scoring from LVs offence against a bad JAX defence – forcing the Jags to rely more on the pass-game. And with the LV defence allowing 3 straight WR rooms to go for 160+ receiving yards the three weeks prior to the ATL matchup – I’m feeling pretty good about BTJ getting some looks here.
Love this Rookie WR – as his separation-ability should be more than enough to have success against this defence. Set it and forget it.
Pick: Brock Bowers Over 21.5 Yards Longest Reception (-115) 1.15u via Bet99
Pick: Jakobi Meyers Over 22.5 Yards Longest Reception (-110) 1.10u via Bet99
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- LV WR Tre Turner (IR)
Two long reception lines for the same team? And it’s the Raiders? Say it ain’t so.
These have to be the picks with how bad this JAX D is. Let’s start with the production they’ve given up to opposing WRs.
How bad has this Jags secondary been? Well, they’re giving up the 2nd most receiving yards per game to WRs (180.86) to go along with the 3rd highest receiving yards per reception mark to WRs (13.99). That’s rough. But even on a game-by-game basis lately – it looks terrible. 158+ receiving yards and over 14.3 receiving yards per reception for opposing WRs in 3 of their last 4 games.
And while Jakobi has been putting up solid receiving yard production lately – his long reception marks are stellar. 20+ yard long receptions in each of his last 4 games ain’t bad – especially considering Ridder was slinging the rock last game. Lock.
Then – Bowers. Well – the JAX D has also given up 10.3+ receiving yards per reception to TEs in 4 of their last 5 games – and there were some bad TE groups in that mix (NYJ, HOU, and TEN).
And Bowers, well, he’s been super solid on the long reception front – even if his receiving yardage production hasn’t fit the bill as of late (under 50 receiving yards in 3 of his last 4 games). The long reception lines (starting with the most recent game): 22, 25, 33, 13, and 23. That’s very solid for a TE – and I don’t expect him to slow down with this leaky JAX D.
Double bubble.
Game Eleven: San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins
Pick: George Kittle Over 23.5 Yards Longest Reception (-105) 1.05u via Sports Interaction
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- SF RB Isaac Guerendo (Out)
- SF OT Trent Williams (Out)
- SF WR Brandon Aiyuk (IR)
Last pick of the day is reserved for the biggest beast in the NFL at any skill position – George is just a tank with insane YAC ability.
But his separation and speed have led to positive results as of late for this SF offence – as he’s had long receptions of 29+ yards in 7 of his last 8 games. Talk about consistency, for a team that badly needs receiving production to stay in games with the run game faltering.
But it’s not just Kittle’s great production that goes into this equation. The MIA defence has been getting gouged by TEs down the field, giving up more than 11 receiving yards per reception to TEs in 3 of their last 4 outings. The best TEs they’ve had to face over the last 4 games are Tucker Kraft and the NE TEs – and all three of those TEs went for 16+ yard long reception marks (Austin Hooper hit a 38 yarder on them).
Thing is – those TEs aren’t near the level of athlete that Kittle is. So if MIAs defence is giving up that kind of production to mediocre TEs – what do you think’s going to happen with Kittle? Pretty easy to imagine.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with more NFL picks. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
2024 NFL Week Sixteen: Sunday Slate Best Bets – Top Player Props for Every Game On The Sunday Slate
Game One: Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Tee Higgins Over 23.5 Yards Long Reception (-113) 1.13u via Pinnacle
Pick: Chase Brown Over 107.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115) 1.15u via Bet99
Game Two: New York Giants vs Atlanta Falcons
Pick: Bijan Robinson Over 112.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115) 1.15u via NorthStar
Pick: Tyler Allgeier Over 35.5 Rushing Yards (-110) 1.10u via Betano
Game Three: Arizona Cardinals vs Carolina Panthers
Pick: Chuba Hubbard Over 90.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-112) 1.12u via NorthStar
Pick: James Conner Over 106.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-112) 1.12u via NorthStar
Game Four: Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears
Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 123.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115) 1.15u via Betway
Pick: Craig Reynolds Over 19.5 Rushing Yards (-105) 1.05u via Coolbet
Pick: Tim Patrick Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-112) 1.12u via NorthStar
Game Five: LA Rams vs New York Jets
Pick: Cooper Kupp Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-112) 1.12u via Coolbet
Pick: Garrett Wilson Over 21.5 Yards Longest Reception (-120) 1.20u via NorthStar
Game Six: Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts
Pick: Tyjae Spears Over (??) Receiving Yards (-110) 1.10u via (??)*
Game Seven: Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders
Pick: Kenneth Gainwell Over 16.5 Rushing Yards (+106) 1.0u via Pinnacle
Pick: Devonta Smith Over 20.5 Yards Longest Reception (-115) 1.15u via Bet99
Game Eight: Minnesota Vikings vs Seattle Seahawks
Pick: Aaron Jones Over 81.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115) 1.15u via NorthStar
Pick: DK Metcalf Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-115) 1.15u via NorthStar
Game Nine: New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills
Pick: Sorry, no action in this one, it’s a gross game with absurd lines for Bills players – so I’ll take a pass
Game Ten: Jacksonville Jaguars vs Las Vegas Raiders
Pick: Brian Thomas Jr Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.10u via Betano
Pick: Brock Bowers Over 21.5 Yards Longest Reception (-115) 1.15u via Bet99
Pick: Jakobi Meyers Over 22.5 Yards Longest Reception (-110) 1.10u via Bet99
Game Eleven: San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins
Pick: George Kittle Over 23.5 Yards Longest Reception (-105) 1.05u via Sports Interaction