Wow – what a day of Football we have in front of us this Saturday. The College Football Playoff games stacked through the day – with two great NFL matchups mixed in, just to make things interesting. I do love the NFL giving us more standalone games as we near the end of the season – if for no other reason than it tricks my stupid brain into thinking we get more games. Alas – we do not, but I’m very excited for this two-game banger before we get to a full Sunday Slate.
We had 4 Player Prop Overs in the TNF Broncos vs Chargers game – and we split it down the middle, with Sutton selling out just short of his receiving yard and long reception line. The good news – we’re still up more than 48 units on the season for our Player Props ($4,800 profit if you’re a $100 unit bettor). We keep the volume steady, and bankroll-manage our way to some fun:
As I had posted on X previously – we have joined the MoneylineGo team (https://moneylinego.com/experts/PlusMoneyJ), but will still be offering NFL full slate analysis for free. Why make anyone pay for this in-depth analysis? I love writing this all up – and I love sharing knowledge and clean-breakdowns for whomever may want it.
Without further ado – let’s get to the analysis.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
*All data from PFF.com premium subscription.
2024 NFL Week Sixteen: Saturday Slate Best Bets – Top Player Props for Saturday Slate Games
Game One: Houston Texans vs KC Chiefs
Pick: Noah Gray Over 13.5 Yards Long Reception (-108) 1.08u via Pinnacle
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- KC OT DJ Humphries (Out)
- KC WR Hollywood Brown (Returning from IR)
- KC WR Mecole Hardman (IR)
- HOU DT Folorunso Fatukasi (Out)
- HOU S Jalen Pitre (IR)
- HOU LB Christian Harris (Questionable, DNP Thurs, true question to play)
- HOU LB Azeez Al-Shaair (Suspended)
This may be a tough game to find Over Player Props in – with the KC defence coming off a great week after a slight dip, and a HOU defence that can bring serious pressure against opposing QBs (23.9% QB pressure rate is Top 10 in the NFL). However – we have the projected cheat code with the TE that many overlook in KC. Well – I sure as hell am not overlooking him.
Noah Gray has been a solid contributor for a Chiefs offence that has been lacking pass-catchers all year (made all the worse with Rashee Rice, Mecole Hardman, and Skyy Moore still on the IR). When you’re WR2 is Juju – you’re in trouble. Good news for Mahomes and Co. – they’re getting Hollywood Brown back this week, who will pair well with Deandre Hopkins on the outside. Regardless of that though – Gray is still a weapon that will be utilized in this offence, as he’s been a favourite target of Mahomes on longer passes down the middle-of-the-field (he also has some good YAC ability, which is just a bonus).
Seriously though – check the box scores. Gray has commanded a 55% snap share or more in every game since their Week 6 Bye – and to go along with that, he’s running around 20-25 receiving routes per game – showing heavy involvement for a TE-2. His production hasn’t been too shabby either, as he has at least 21 receiving yards and 2 receptions in each of his last 5 games. Not incredible numbers – but he gets the job done.
Nonetheless – we aren’t taking his yardage line, as the much juicier edge comes with his long reception line. Why is that? Because these are his long reception marks over that 5 game period mentioned above: 15, 8, 26, 35, and 14. Even with limited yardage in a few of those games – he’s hitting the longer passes, which isn’t as much of a surprise when you realize his average-depth-of-target (ADOT) in 3 of those games was 10.5 yards or more. That’s a sick ADOT for a TE.
And this HOU defence – man, they’re having their struggles in certain areas. Stud Safety Jalen Pitre is on IR, ILB Azeez is still suspied, and other LB Christian Harris might miss this one. These are all guys that you would have covering Gray. So checkmark there.
Then – the production of opposing TEs when it comes to this HOU defence. They’re actually pretty good against TEs on a season-long basis – where they’ve given up the 4th least receiving yards per game to TEs (38.36). However – their recent sample size doesn’t tell the same story. In five straight games now, they’ve allowed opposing TEs to go for 55+ receiving yards. But it doesn’t just stop there. They’re also giving up incredibly long receptions to TEs, which includes 14+ yard long receptions for both Evan Engram and Brenton Strange (JAX) in Week 13, a 70 yarder to Chig Okonkwo in Week 12, and a 24 yarder to Luke Schoonmaker (DAL) in Week 11.
If that’s how they’ve been guarding TEs down the field lately – I expect Gray to get his long looks here. He just has to convert one – so count me in. As a bonus – KC should have trouble running the ball, as the HOU defence has held 3 of the last 4 RB groups they’ve faced to 74 rush yards or less. More passing down the field – more opps for Gray.
Pick: Hollywood Brown Over 11.5 Yards Long Reception (-117) 1.17u via Pinnacle
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- KC OT DJ Humphries (Out)
- KC WR Hollywood Brown (Returning from IR)
- KC WR Mecole Hardman (IR)
- HOU DT Folorunso Fatukasi (Out)
- HOU S Jalen Pitre (IR)
- HOU LB Christian Harris (Questionable, DNP Thurs, true question to play)
- HOU LB Azeez Al-Shaair (Suspended)
Sometimes – you can’t be afraid to be wrong. Could the Chiefs slowly ease Brown into action this game after he’s missed the whole year with injury? They could. But I’m leaning with the thought that the Chiefs know they need to get their passing game figured out – and with time running out in the season to try things, and Brown having full participation in every practice this week – I’m guessing he’s going to have his chances to make plays in this one.
Well – there ain’t many better matchups to have than the HOU D for a speed-demon like Brown. While Tyreek Hill had trouble getting things done vs this defence last week (partly due to Waddle going out early in the game), he did go for a 21 yard reception with limited volume. If you look at the 3 games prior to last week – the HOU Texans were allowing 15.5 receiving yards per reception to WRs over that span (to go along with over 200 receiving yards per game to WRs). That 15.5 mark would be the worst mark in the NFL on a season-long basis – showing this defence can get gashed by long receptions.
So, who do you want to bet on to gash this HOU defence. Deandre Hopkins, with his 4.7 speed at this point in his career? Nah. Xavier Worthy, with his crazy speed but his inability to get two feet in and fight through contact in the secondary? Also a no from me dawg. That leaves us with Brown – who over his whole career, has shown he can convert the deep ball to a significant extent.
In 2023, Hollywood played 12 full games in ARI – most of which were not with Kyler Murray due to his injury. In those 12 games – he had a long reception of 21+ yards 8 times. Are you kidding me? Even with Kyler, I don’t think Marvin Harrison Jr. can say the same this year – showing what a weapon Brown is down the field.
This isn’t a bulletproof pick with a ton of data to draw from – but sometimes, you just have to go with what you feel is the right lean. This is the right spot in my mind – and the good thing about long reception lines are: you only need one.
Pick: Dalton Schultz Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-111) 1.11u via Betano
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- KC CB Jaylen Watson (IR)
- KC CB Chamarri Conner (Out)
- KC LB Leo Chenal (Questionable, Illness, I’d say he plays)
- HOU TE Cade Stover (Out)
- HOU WR John Metchie (Out)
- HOU OG Juice Scruggs (Out)
The last pick of this game goes to ol’reliable – Dalton Schultz is the ultimate safety blanket for Stroud. And jeez – is Stroud going to need Schultz with the only clear weakness of this KC defence being pass coverage on opposing TEs.
While the Chiefs D had a few rough outings prior to last week – they looked like their usual selves ending Jameis’ whole career last week (21-7 win vs Browns). The Chiefs D still ranks in the top half of the league in (i) pass yards allowed per game, (ii) rushing and receiving yards per game allowed to RBs, and (iii) receiving yards per game allowed to WRs. Pretty clean work, and I’m guessing the KC DLine will absolutely tear-apart a HOU OLine (especially on the interior) that’s had serious problems protecting Stroud this year.
The fact that Stroud will have less time in the pocket lends itself to the assumption that there will be more checkdowns to the TE and RBs. And would you look at that; the Chiefs D is allowing the most receiving yards per game to TEs in the NFL (74.64). Opposing TEs just seem to eat vs this defence, as prior to last week, all opposing TE groups since Week 4 had 45+ receiving yards. That’s consistent.
And Schultz – has also been very consistent. 20+ receiving yards in 10 of his last 11 games, and the only time he missed that mark was last week, leading me to believe there’s positive regression coming. On top of that, backup TE Cade Stover is Out in this one, and he’s been syphoning some work from Schultzy in the pass game. With that considered, plus the matchup – I like this pick quite a bit.
Game Two: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens
Pick: Pat Freiermuth Over 16.5 Yards Long Reception (-115) 1.15u via Pinnacle
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- PIT WR George Pickens (Out)
- BAL LB Odafe Oweh (Questionable, LPs Weds and Thurs, likely to play)
Relatively healthy teams coming into this game – except for the big one with Pickens missing yet another game. That’s now the 3rd game he’ll miss over the last few weeks – which opens the door for Freirmuth to get more looks in the pass game.
However – I’d be lying to you if I said Pat’s production has spiked with Pickens out. He’s only had 70 receiving yards in the last 2 weeks, which isn’t all that different from his season average (35 yards per game). Thing is – as a whole, this offence has been integrating Freiermuth more into the offence since Week 12 – as he’s had 48+ receiving yards in 3 of his last 4 outings.
But that isn’t even the best part. Over those 4 outings – he’s had a long reception of 21+ yards 3 out of 4 times as well. That’s clean work for a TE not known as a field-stretcher – and shows that he’s gained Russ’ trust when it comes to downfield targets. Things can’t get worse with Pickens (the main downfield threat) missing this one.
On top of that – I see Freiermuth getting even more opportunities in this one – as the usual run-heavy Steelers likely won’t have much success on the ground against a BAL defence that’s allowed the 2nd least rush yards per game to RBs on the season (63.79). And my oh my – if you want to target the BAL D in the pass-game – you should be targeting the TE.
The Ravens D is allowing the 6th most receiving yards per game (61.43) and the 7th highest receiving yards per reception mark to TEs (11.03). NYG TE Daniel Bellinger had a 17 yard long reception vs BAL last week, and PHI TE Dallas Goedert had the same mark in Week 13. That’s not even touching on LAC TE Will Dissly hitting an 18 yarder in Week 12. As you can see – TEs can break-off nice pass plays against this defence.
Add in the fact that the Steelers are projected to be down in this game – and we also have gamescript on our side. Everything points to a long one for Freiermuth.
Pick: Zay Flowers Over 23.5 Yards Long Reception (-115) 1.15u via Bet365
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- PIT DE Larry Ogunjobi (Questionable, LPs all week, likely to play)
- PIT S Deshon Elliot (Out)
- PIT CB Donte Jackson (Questionable, LP on Thurs, likely to play)
- BAL WRs Diontae Johnson and Nelson Agholor (Out)
- BAL WR Rashod Bateman (Questionable, DNP Thurs, true question to play)
With all those injuries to the BAL WRs – how do you not take a shot on Zay Flowers hitting at least one long-bomb this week? Even if the Steelers lock him up with double-coverage the whole game – he still has a very good chance to beat this secondary with his break-neck speed.
But a lot of you may be tentative to bet on Zay in this spot – as he hasn’t exactly been productive as of late. Under 65 receiving yards in 4 of his last 5 games – not great Bob. However – that’s neglecting to look at his long reception marks – because those totals haven’t been disappointing in the least.
In 3 of his last 4 games, he’s had a 23+ yard long reception. Even if you drag that sample size to his last 10 outings – he’s been over that 23 yard mark in 7 games. Pretty damn solid – and that’s not even mentioning that this PIT defence is missing one of the best Safeties in football this year in Deshon Elliot.
Yes – the Steelers D is only allowing the 11th most receiving yards per game to WRs (153.57), but when it comes to receiving yards per reception to WRs – they jump up to the 9th highest mark at 13.19. PHI WRs Devonta Smith and AJ Brown both went for 21+ yarders last week, and CLE WR Jerry Jeudy had a 35 yarder to go along with Elijah Moore popping off a 20 yarder in Week 14. The week before that – Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase had 30+ yarders. The deep shot is there to be had against this PIT secondary.
On top of all that – DHen has been struggling to get things going on the ground (held under 70 rush yards in 3 of his last 5), and the PIT D doesn’t give up much on the ground (5th least rush yards per game allowed to RBs at 79.29). More pass-reliance for BAL – Flowers is going to pop off for at least one.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with more NFL picks. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
2024 NFL Week Sixteen: Saturday Slate Best Bets – Top Player Props for Saturday Slate Games
Game One: Houston Texans vs KC Chiefs
Pick: Noah Gray Over 13.5 Yards Long Reception (-108) 1.08u via Pinnacle
Pick: Hollywood Brown Over 11.5 Yards Long Reception (-117) 1.17u via Pinnacle
Pick: Dalton Schultz Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-111) 1.11u via Betano
Game Two: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens
Pick: Pat Freiermuth Over 16.5 Yards Long Reception (-115) 1.15u via Pinnacle
Pick: Zay Flowers Over 23.5 Yards Long Reception (-115) 1.15u via Bet365