Well my friends – the NFL Season rolls on, with Week Five in the books and plenty more storylines for everyone to talk about. We’re starting to pick up steam in the betting markets – as the advanced data has continued to be our friend this month, getting us a profit of $1000 (if you’re a $100 unit bettor) in the last 3 weeks. Check out the full recap from last week’s plays here:
Now – we have Thursday Night Football with the 49ers travelling to Seattle to prove they aren’t frauds. That loss to the Cards last week was despicable, and Shanny has to get this team back on track if they have a chicken’s shit chance of getting to the Big One again. Meanwhile – this SEA may be the real frauds after looking stellar through the first 3 weeks against bad teams – only to get kicked in the dick by two good teams the past 2 weeks. Three great player props – all the analysis to boot – right here folks. Let’s get into it.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
*All data from PFF.com premium subscription.
NFL Week Six: TNF Best Bets – Top 3 Player Props
Pick One: DK Metcalf Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-111) 1.0u via Betano
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- SF DT Jordan Elliiott (Out)
- SF LB Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles (Out)
- SF S Talanoa Hufanga (IR)
- SF CB Charvarius Ward (Questionable, likely to play)
- SEA LB Derick Hall (Questionable, true question to play)
- SEA S Julian Love (Questionable, likely to play)
- SEA LB Boye Mafe (Questionable, likely to play)
- SEA CB Riq Woolen (Out)
- SEA LB Uchenna Nwosu (Out)
- SEA DT Byron Murphy (Out)
The name of the game in this matchup – good days incoming for outside WR’s, tough days incoming for slot WRs/TEs. That’s why we’ll start with the WR who has the lowest slot-snap percentage on either team, DK (at 14.3%). Let’s get into it.
You see the two key SF injuries above, with Hufanga sidelined and Ward coming into this one banged up. Those are two key pieces for this secondary – but even with Ward playing, the outside of the field is there to be had based on the data.
SF’s slot CB based on snap percentage: Deommodore Lenoir. Lenoir has given up the least amount of receiving yards (108 receiving yards) out of all starting SF CBs. CB Yiadom (137 receiving yards allowed on 50 less snaps) and CB Ward (198 receiving yards allowed) are both more vulnerable to the pass. Further, Lenoir has a much better PFF coverage grade (79.1 – very good) when compared to Yiadom (70.2) and Ward (56.4 – ouch). With a plus-matchup against primarily Ward in this one, DK is going to eat, where he’s averaging over 82 receiving yards per game through five weeks.
The last part of this analysis – why are we taking DK’s Over when SF is 25th in PFF rush defence grade? Shouldn’t we be going to RB Kenneth Walker’s Over? Not so fast my friend….
We saw this playout last week with SEA vs NYG. The Giants are 22nd in PFF rush defence grading, and are very susceptible on the ground. However, Kenneth Walker ends up with 5 total rushes for 19 yards. He had some decent work through the air, but I’m betting there are two reasons for this downtick in rushing production and volume: (i) SEA was down for the majority of the game, as their defence is severely banged up and almost anyone can score on them right now, and (ii) Walker still might be a little nicked up after missing Weeks 2 & 3 with injury. Now, he’s coming in on short rest for a Thursday Night game, and the SEA defence is again projected to be torn apart (SF’s Team Total is 26.5).
You know what that means – more work through the air, which sends DK straight to the moon in terms of upside in this game. Lock it in.
Pick Two: Brandon Aiyuk Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-111) 1.0u via Pinnacle
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- SF DT Jordan Elliiott (Out)
- SF LB Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles (Out)
- SF S Talanoa Hufanga (IR)
- SF CB Charvarius Ward (Questionable, likely to play)
- SEA LB Derick Hall (Questionable, true question to play)
- SEA S Julian Love (Questionable, likely to play)
- SEA LB Boye Mafe (Questionable, likely to play)
- SEA CB Riq Woolen (Out)
- SEA LB Uchenna Nwosu (Out)
- SEA DT Byron Murphy (Out)
I told you guys above – the matchup is juicy for outside WRs in this game. Next up – WR Brandon Aiyuk, with the lowest slot-snap percentage on the 49ers (18.9%).
The slot CB for SEA based on snap percentage? CB Devon Witherspoon. Witherspoon has given up a reasonable amount of yardage (144 receiving yards allowed), but is outdone by outside Corner, Tre Brown (153 receiving yards allowed on 40 less snaps). The only stud in this CB room is outside CB Riq Woolen (only 48 receiving yards allowed, with a PFF coverage grade of 76.1, sick). Well – Riq has been ruled Out tonight – so now Aiyuk will go up against CB Tre Brown (49.8 PFF coverage grade – pee yew) and Nehemiah Pritchett (48.6 PFF coverage grade – yuck) when Witherspoon goes to the slot. Yeah – that’s great news for this stud.
Meanwhile – Aiyuk is finally becoming a focal point of the offence in the pass game. Tough to come back to full force after holding out all camp. It was a good matchup against bad outside CBs in ARI last week (just as bad as SEA outside CBs), and Aiyuk absolutely took advantage with 11 targets, 8 receptions, and 147 receiving yards. I expect something similar for him tonight.
The only drawback – can this SEA offence push SF enough to throw the ball at a high rate? Well, as I said above, I think SF gets up in this game early – and it’s my opinion that they won’t only rely on the run to get this lead. Their team total is 26.5 points for a reason – they’re going to score, and with SEA playing from behind, I believe there’s enough scoring potential from Geno & DK+Lockett to make this game script feasible.
All in on this one.
Pick Three: Deebo Samuel Over 12.5 Rushing Yards (-106) 1.0u via NorthStar
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- SF DT Jordan Elliiott (Out)
- SF LB Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles (Out)
- SF S Talanoa Hufanga (IR)
- SF CB Charvarius Ward (Questionable, likely to play)
- SEA LB Derick Hall (Questionable, true question to play)
- SEA S Julian Love (Questionable, likely to play)
- SEA LB Boye Mafe (Questionable, likely to play)
- SEA CB Riq Woolen (Out)
- SEA LB Uchenna Nwosu (Out)
- SEA DT Byron Murphy (Out)
I have a great feeling about this SF run game – but so do the bookies, with SF RB Jordan Mason lined up to hit 94.5 scrimmage yards. He has been a workhorse for this offence (averaging over 20 rush attempts and 100 rush yards per game) – but there are some external factors to consider with this matchup.
First off – Mason’s volume took a hit last week with him carrying the ball 14 times after getting 19+ carries the previous 4 games. They were in a negative gamescript due to AZ leading, but this was also the case when SF played MIN – and he had plenty of volume in that game. I believe it’s possible that they’re trying to reign in Mason’s workload (to an extent) with the news that McCaffrey is still a ways away from playing.
So – I already had questions about the Mason workload. Now, consider the fact that this is a short week with it being a Thursday Nighter. Less time for Mason to recuperate, which leaves him more susceptible to injury with a big workload. I don’t think SF will want to rely on late-round Rookie RB Guerrendo to lead the backfield – so I’m assuming they’ll be smart with Mason’s volume (however, I’ve been wrong before, as some NFL Coaches don’t follow the common-sense thread of thinking).
Yet the matchup is there on the ground for SF, with SEA missing key run-stopping pieces up front (Murphy, Nwosu) after allowing 115 + rush yards to RBs for the NYG (Week 5) and DET (Week 4). The 49ers have a deadly PFF run blocking grade, ranking 2nd in the NFL in this category. So – where do we go? I’ll tell you where – Deebo City.
I mean, this line is so minimal for a guy who’s had 46 rush yards in 3 games this year. He did have that stinker a few weeks back (2 rushes, -10 rush yards). However, with all of the context considered above, how can you not bet on Deebo to get some more backfield work? SF should have the lead, so the rushing volume should be there, and Samuel likely gets some squeaky-wheel treatment after his subpar performance last game (11 receiving yards and 9 rush yards).
The finishing touch.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with more NFL picks. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
NFL Week Six: TNF Best Bets – Top 3 Player Props
Pick One: DK Metcalf Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-111) 1.0u via Betano
Pick Two: Brandon Aiyuk Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-111) 1.0u via Pinnacle
Pick Three: Deebo Samuel Over 12.5 Rushing Yards (-106) 1.0u via NorthStar