2024 NFL Week Six: Sunday Best Bets - Top Player Props For Every Morning Game

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This week – it’s more of the same, with player prop edges based on mismatches for every game on the Sunday Morning Slate. So no need for me to sit here and talk about it – let’s get to the picks!

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NFL Week Six: Sunday Slate Best Bets – Top Player Props for Every Morning Game

Game One: Chicago Bears vs Jacksonville Jaguars (London)

Pick: Tank Bigsby Over 45.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-105) 1.0u via Betway

Like we do every week around these parts – stay away from pass-catchers going up against the CHI defence. JAX WR Brian Thomas Jr. may be the new hotness of receiving production (loved him from the Draft – not a big deal) – but I wouldn’t expect it to continue this week.

Fact of the matter is: CHI is 6th in the NFL in passing yards allowed and they’ve gone up against potent passing offences in CJ Stroud and HOU along with Matt Stafford and the LAR. They even took the glass slipper off Andy Dalton vs CAR last week, holding him to 136 passing yards and getting him pulled for Bryce Young in the process. You know, the same Andy Dalton that went for 539 passing yards the two games before? This CHI defence is different – and even with Brisker and Stevenson likely Out, I trust the scheme and the depth to shut down this up-and-down pass game from the Jags.

That’s why we go to the RB position – and the current position battle between Bigsby and Etienne leans heavily in one direction. I’m not even talking about production (where Tank has outproduced Etienne to the tune of +44 rush yards on 28 less carries). C’mon Jags – Etienne at 4.4 yards-per-carry and Bigsby at 8.0 yards-per-carry? It’s coaching malpractice if you don’t give Tank more work after he went for 129 yards from scrimmage last week. Even though Doug Pederson isn’t the sharpest Coach in the proverbial coaching shed – he has been giving Tank more work:

Tank: Weeks 1-4 snap %: 32%, 0% (hurt), 13%, 29%
Tank: Week 5: 40%

It may seem like a modest increase – but the real glaring stat is the opportunities. Last week was the first time since Week 1 where Tank had 10+ touches – and in both games, he had 70+ yards from scrimmage. Seeing as he should get 10+ opps in this game, he’ll hit this line.

Pick: DJ Moore Over 5.5 Receptions (+112) 1.0u via Betsafe

Low-key, high-key – this JAX defence ain’t too bad against the run. They’re middle-of-the-pack in PFF rush defence grading (15th), but they’re 9th in the NFL in rush yards allowed per game (105.6). Meanwhile – this CHI offence may appear to be alright on the ground based on recent performances (Swift has revived his season) – but I won’t believe that they dominate this Jags D with the run. CHI is bottom 15 in PFF run blocking, bottom 10 in PFF run grading, and bottom 5 in rush yards per game. Yup – gonna have to pass if they’re going to beat the Jags.

But the Jags actually have a decent pass rush, while it might be underperforming to this point with a bottom 10 PFF pass-rush grade. Nevertheless, Arik Armstead, Josh Hines-Allen, and Travon Walker are competent pass-rushers – and CHI has a tough time protecting Caleb against good pass-rushes (two sub-58 PFF pass-blocking grades this season, the only two times they’ve faced competent pass-rushes).

That caters to a WR who has shorter routes. That shoves out WR Rome Odunze from consideration, as his ADOT is by far the highest of these CHI pass-catchers (15.3 yards). Further, the matchup to be had vs JAX in the secondary is on the outside, with outside CB Ronald Darby allowing the most receiving yards of all JAX DBs (326 receiving yards allowed, 4th most in the NFL). Stud JAX CB Campbell isn’t coming back this week from the news I’ve heard – and the WR who plays outside the most in this CHI offence? WR DJ Moore, with a meagre 19% slot usage percentage.

What does that mean with a low ADOT, pressure from the Jags, and a good matchup on the outside? DJ eating – so let’s ride him for another week.

Game Two: Houston Texans vs New England Patriots

Pick: Tank Dell Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-102) 1.0u via 3ET

This game is a mess – so many injuries, such a bad team in NE, Rookie 3rd Overall pick QB Drake Maye getting his first start in the NFL. It’s a volatile game to bet on – at best – but I have a good feeling with this pick. The books are still giving a reasonable number for Tank Dell’s receiving yards, and with Nico Collins Out and on the IR, the passes have to go somewhere. Sure, Houston should be up in this game and shouldn’t have to pass the ball at a high rate. BUT – HOU will still want to get first downs, right? Well, HOU RB Mixon may be back and ready to go in some capacity, but this team is a pass-first team at the best of times.

Mixon’s line is enticing with NE ranking 31st in PFF rush defence grading. I just can’t trust sizeable workloads for guys coming back from high ankle sprains – even if the reports have that being the case. This HOU passing offence is one of the most successful in the league (2nd in the NFL at 272 pass yards/game) while NE gives up a significant amount of production through the air considering they’re trailing in most games (7th most pass yards allowed per game to this point).

Doesn’t matter where you want to go against this NE secondary – they’ve all given up 150+ receiving yards, even supposed stud CB sophomore Christian Gonzalez. With WR Diggs being the primary WR with Collins Out (based on previous usage), you’d expect more freedom from coverage for Dell. That’s what I’m betting on.

Pick: Drake Maye Under 166.5 Pass Yards + Over 17.5 Pass Completions (+261) 0.5u via ParlayPlay

Perfect time to take a shot like this. This NE pass-blocking wasn’t good before they lost their best piece in C David Andrews to the IR. Now – you have a largely unproven unit in the trenches (NE is 30th in PFF pass block grading) going up against Danielle Hunter, Will Anderson Jr., and Co. That doesn’t seem like good news for a Rookie QB making his first start – unless this NE offence is smart and can cater to the offensive holes.

I’m betting that they are smart – I know, shocker. This is a culmination of a lot of things – Rhamondre Stevenson being Out, the OLine vs DLine disadvantage when it comes to the pass rush, and the conservative pass attack with this NE team. I expect a ton of throws around the line of scrimmage, while NE tries to take advantage of this middle-of-the-pack HOU rush defence (120+ rush yards allowed per game) with Antonio Gibson looking good in the backfield.

On top of that – HOU has looked good in pass coverage (3rd least pass yards allowed per game this year). We already saw them dominate a Rookie QB in Caleb Williams earlier this year. Difference is – CHI game-planned for a deeper passing attack with Williams, whereas that’s not in the bag for the NE offence based on what we’ve seen so far with Brissett. Further, starting HOU CB Kamari Lassiter is Out, opening up more opportunities for separation on short routes for NE pass-catchers. That means more completions – and less yardage – giving us a good possibility to hit this longshot. Dial it up.

Game Three: Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans

Pick: Adonai Mitchell Over ?? Receiving Yards (???) 1.0u via ???*

*The Books haven’t set a line yet for this one with Pittman being a game-time decision. As soon as the line opens for this, I’m comfortable betting it at whatever it’s set at, with right around -110 as the price.

Don’t trust ARich? Me either. So let’s take a minimal receiving line with a lot of opportunity in a game where IND should be encouraged to throw the ball with RB Jonathan Taylor Out. With Pittman likely dealing with limitations due to injury on the outside, and Flacco-favourite Josh Down banged up as well – Adonai has a ton of chances to hit this Over. The proof is in the snap percentage.

The first two weeks of the season, when Josh Downs was Out, guess who had the 3rd highest WR snap percentage after Pierce and Pittman? It was Adonai, with 64% and 59% respectively through the first two games. I don’t expect there to be another WR that fills in for Pittman missing some snaps this week – so dial up Adonai.

Further, I still expect Downs to take the slot WR snaps in this offence. Well, Tennessee just lost one of the best outside CB’s in the AFC in Chidobie Awuzie to injury – with La’Jarius Snead left to man the outside alone. I expect Pittman/Pierce to get more Snead in this game – leaving Adonai with a backup and increased snaps to make things happen. This guy can produce (4 catches and 38 receiving yards last game, plus 30 yards receiving with ARich in Week 2) – so let’s ride him this week.

Pick: Tony Pollard Over 87.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-111) 1.0u via Sports Interaction

Man – Tony P’s resurgence is getting lost in the mess that is this TEN team. Did you know that Pollard is averaging over 83 yards from scrimmage per game to this point in the season? The guy is producing, and he’s had plenty of opportunity (over 18 touches per game – that’s bellcow territory). I don’t expect that to stop with TEN just having their bye week – leading everyone to increased health and a bigger workload.

Really though – it doesn’t matter the game script – Tony is bound to get the volume on the ground + through the air. Meanwhile IND’s D has given up absurd production to opposing RBs. Here are the last few week of production against them:

JAX Week 5: 120+ rush yards allowed (JAX 23rd in PFF run blocking)
PIT Week 4: 120+ rush yards allowed (PIT 8th in PFF run blocking)
GB Week 2: 260+ rush yards allowed (GB 26th in PFF run blocking)

Full disclosure – the Bears offence failed to produce on the ground against this IND D – but I remember watching that game, and even Swift would be with me when I say he ran poorly that game. Now – it’s the Pollard show – and this Indy D is still banged up enough to get gouged in the run game.

Game Four: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints

Pick: Alvin Kamara Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.0u via Bet365

Buccaneers rush defence – it’s no joke. Vita Vea continues to shut down opponents that try to run the ball: here’s the RB rushing totals for opposing teams when TB DT All-Pro Vita Vea has played this season:

WSH RBs: 15 carries for 50 rush yards
DEN RBs: 23 carries for 89 rush yards
PHI RBs: 12 carries for 93 rush yards (Saquon’s a beast, had a 59 yard rush)
ATL RBs: 18 carries for 73 yards

You get the picture, right? Kamara won’t be able to get production going on the ground – yet the Bucs also rank Top 10 in PFF pass coverage grading, with some solid DBs like Zyon McCollum (lowkey Top 5 among DBs in PFF pass coverage grading) and S Jordan Whitehead (under 100 receiving yards allowed as a starter). Further, Derek Carr is missing this one, so I don’t expect much success for the Saints WRs.

What does that leave for a first-time starter filling in at QB in Spencer Rattler? Dumpoffs and screens for Kamara, of which there have been many to this point in the season. In each of the last 4 games, Kamara has surpassed 40 yards receiving. In his last two games? 13 receptions. You think they’re going to pass him the ball less with Carr Out and the OLine so banged up? That’s what I thought.

Last point – Bucs have given up 25+ receiving yards to opposing RB groups in every game this season. What more do you need?

Pick: Bucky Irving Over 82.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-111) 1.0u via NorthStar

Rachaad White = bench duty. Well, not really, as White is still getting the majority of the snaps (64% last week vs Irving’s 43%) and touches (13 touches last week to Irving’s 11). The fact still remains – Irving looks way more explosive running the ball in this offence – as the efficiency numbers testify to:

Irving yards per touch: 5.63
White yards per touch: 4.61

The TB coaches seem set on only letting Irving hold a 50% snap share, despite this. All good, because he can still easily go Over this line with the matchup this week vs the Saints.

First things first – TB should roll NO in this game with first time starting QB Rattler in. Game script for Irving – about the best it’s going to be this year, as there should be plenty of time to run the clock out with the lead TB is projected to have.

Next point – NO is weak when it comes to defending the rush. Weird after NO had such a renowned rush defence in the few years prior – but this year, they’re 27th in PFF rush defence grading and give up the 7th most rush yards per game (251.2 rush yards allowed per game). More opps for Irving to be efficient and put up big production.

Game Five: Cleveland Browns vs Philadelphia Eagles

Pick: Deshaun Watson Over 33.5 Passing Attempts (+101) 1.0u via Pinnacle

Just as the Browns get their two starting Tackles back in the lineup from injury (Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin) – they are now without two starters on the interior of the OLine (one being Pro Bowl G Teller). An already struggling run offence with the Browns (still missing Chubb this week and 26th in rush yards per game) is expected to struggle mightily in moving the ball on the ground against the Eagles and a rush defence that recently held Kamara to 3 yards per carry. Philly can have the ball run on them – just not by subpar rush units and OLines. Chalk CLE up as both.

So that leaves the game in the hands of Deshaun – which is a pretty uncomfortable sentence to write based on his play thus far. His lack of protection from the OLine is acknowledged – but it’s still obvious he’s playing the QB position poorly. However – that gives us some value on Deshaun’s Passing Attempts – as it’s really the only option for the Browns in this one. Further – while PHI Darius Slay still locks down opposing WRs (under 100 receiving yards allowed on the year), other starting CBs Avonte Maddox and Rookie Quinyon Mitchell are both susceptible (Maddox with the sub 55 PFF coverage grade and Mitchell with 200+ receiving yards allowed).

There are enough holes in that Eagles secondary to leave me confident that Deshaun should be able to move the ball at times on this PHI team. More first downs, more throwing attempts …. this one’s looking good.

Pick: AJ Brown Over 25.5 Yards Longest Reception (-108) 1.0u via Pinnacle

While it’s hard to trust the passing volume in this offence in a game where the Eagles are projected to dominate – there is an edge for Brown exceeding this longest catch line. The guy is one of the most explosive WRs in the NFL, and they love to cash with him+Hurts on the deep shot.

His yards/reception in the only game he played this year? Over 20 yards. His yards/reception from all of last year? 13.7 yards. That average is so high when considering where this line is. And things only get better with the matchup against this CLE secondary.

CLE starting CBs Martin Emerson and Denzel Ward – both in the Top 15 among DBs with more than 100 snaps when it comes to most yards/reception allowed. These corners get exposed more through length than volume – and that’s right up Brown’s alley with his capabilities.

Lock it.

Game Six: Arizona Cardinals vs Green Bay Packers

Pick: Kyler Murray Over 209.5 Passing Yards (-110) 1.0u via Bet365

This one is a pretty simple read for a few reasons.

For one – GB is going to score a lot in this game. The ARI D is a bad unit, and they give up points at will to any team not named the LA Rams (that was a gross Week 2). Whether it be through Love slinging it in the air – or Jacobs destroying them on the ground – ARI will have to keep up. That falls on Kyler, who may be more of a mobile QB, but can certainly pass this line with 3 performances this year over 195 yards passing.

The next reason – GB’s defensive weakness is the pass game. GB ranks 11th in rush yards allowed per game and hold the 8th best PFF tackling grade in the League. ARI’s run game with James Conner and Co.? Not terrible, but certainly not good, with the obvious limitations being the Cards lack of explosiveness in the backfield.

Meanwhile – this Cards OLine has put in work this season in pass blocking. For the expectations placed on this unit (projected to be very bad), this has been a surprise, as they rank 11th in PFF pass block grading. Some of that is aided by Kyler’s mobility – but the fact still remains. Kyler’s getting time and he’s hitting his pass catchers.

Meanwhile – GB ranks middle of the pack on PFF in pass coverage and pass rush grading. They’ve allowed the 9th most pass yards against per game this year. Safety FA addition McKinney is playing like a stud with his 5 picks through 5 games – but these boys are giving up passing production. Rely on Kyler to fill it up because of that.

Game Seven: Washington Commanders vs Baltimore Ravens

Pick: Rashod Bateman Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-111) 1.0u via Betano

Lowkey – Bateman has been a steady producer for this BAL offence. 40+ receiving yards and 3+ catches in 3 of 5 games this year – not too shabby when we know this BAL team doesn’t throw the ball much. However – as was the case last week – we expect BAL to throw the ball more with the WAS offence and the projected success they’ll have against BAL and their porous secondary.

Honestly – every other part of this BAL defence is good. The rush defence is stellar, the pass rush is good …. but the Cornerbacks outside of slot CB Humphrey just aren’t getting it done. Joe Burrow absolutely torched them last week – and I expect the same here with Jayden Daniels this week. That means more points for WAS – which should keep BAL throwing the ball.

Well, you know where WAS’s secondary can be exploited based on the numbers? On the outside, up against Benjamin St. Juste, who is in the Top 10 for yards allowed among qualified DBs (285 receiving yards allowed). Zay Flowers typically operates in the slot – so we’re taking the secondary pass-catcher with the 2nd most amount of snaps to go along with the lowest slot snap %.

That’s Bateman – and he should clear this line easily. Ride it out.

Pick: Terry McLaurin Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-113) 1.0u via Betano

Everything I said above about the BAL secondary being piss poor and only slot CB Humphrey doing well – applies to this pick. Terry is the main man on the outside for this team (lowest slot snap % on WAS) – and if JaMarr Chase last week is any indication for how a WR1 does against this BAL D – we’re in for a good day with some long passes connecting.

Want further proof? BAL’s D, this year, has given up 12/25 and 371 receiving yards on passes of 20+ yards. If you look to the NFL QB leaders in 20+ yard passes – that would be 2nd place in yards and 1st place in completions. This secondary is bound to be exposed by Scary Terry – let’s ride.

Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with more NFL picks. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.