Hello again my friends! This is a continuation of the first part of this article, where I went through all the NFL Week 7 morning games and dialed up 14 player props based on mismatches derived from the data. If you want to check those picks out, here you go:
No need to beat a dead horse – let’s just roll on with the picks and analysis.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
*All data from PFF.com premium subscription.
NFL Week Seven: Sunday Slate Best Bets – Top Player Props for Afternoon Games and SNF
Game One: Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Rams
Pick: Kyren Williams Over 87.5 Rushing Yards (-116) 2.0u via NorthStar
Key Injuries impacting pick:
- LV DT Christian Wilkins (IR)
- LAR WR Cooper Kupp (Questionable, unlikely to play)
Why do the LV Raiders have the 7th least pass yards against per game to this point in the season? Because nobody has to pass the ball against them. Teams are always up against the Raiders, allowing them to run the ball at a high rate with “much success” against this weak Raiders front without DT Christian Wilkins. I believe the same thing will happen this weekend with the Rams as 7 point favourites, coming off a bye.
On top of that – the LAR have slowly gotten back their OLine pieces after multiple injuries plagued them to begin the season. While the starting Center and Guard are still on IR, LT Alaric Jackson coming back from suspension has been a godsend with his OLine leading PFF run-block grade (79.6). Havenstein at RT and Dotson at RG are both still solid – and with Edge Maxx Crosby being the only concern here, it’s good to know that the LAR OLine is strongest on the outside.
Further, the Raiders’ tackling is just straight bad. Last place in PFF tackling grading to go along with a bottom 10 ranking in rush yards allowed per game (140.3). Which leads us to Kyren – you know, the stud RB who has 89+ rush yards in each of his last three games. This guy is so damn good – and now, he’s coming off a week of rest at full health, ready to take a big workload in a game script that should cater to him. Lock it in folks.
Pick: Brock Bowers Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-111) 2.0u via Sports Interaction
Key Injuries impacting pick:
- LV TE Michael Mayer (Out)
- LV WR Jakobi Meyers (Doubtful, unlikely to play)
- LAR S John Johnson II (Out)
The LAR give up the 3rd most receiving yards per game to opposing TEs (59 yards receiving allowed per game). Guess who has the most receiving yards in the NFL at TE? Brock Bowers, with 384 receiving yards and 4 games with 58+ receiving yards
The Rams LBs are sooooo bad. They can easily be rushed on, as is evidenced by their last place ranking in rush yards allowed per game (over 150). However – there’s no trust to be had with this gross RB Committee in LV. Further, the Rams should be leading in this game as a big favourite, leading the Raiders to lean strictly on the pass with AOC starting at QB again.
Last week with AOC – Brock had 9 receptions on 11 targets for 70+ receiving yards. And that was against the Steelers, who allow 10 less yards per game to TE’s than the Rams. The opportunity is there for Brock to go off again – as I don’t trust any other Raiders offensive player in this one.
Game Two: Carolina Panthers vs Washington Commanders
Pick: Chuba Hubbard Over 95.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-105) 2.0u via Bet365
Key Injuries impacting pick:
- WAS DT Jonathan Allen (IR)
- WAS Edge Dorrance Armstrong (Out)
- WAS DE Clelil Ferrell (Questionable, likely to play)
Chuba Chuba Chuba – lowkey, one of the more solid RBs in the league since Andy Dalton became the starter. Here are his games with Andy to this point:
- Week 3: 160+ scrimmage yards
- Week 4: 120+ scrimmage yards
- Week 5: 90+ scrimmage yards
- Week 6: 100+ scrimmage yards
Not bad, right? Well now consider the Washington defence. They were already bottom 10 in rush yards allowed per game (137.7) – and now they just lost their best run stopper, Pro Bowl DT Jonathan Allen, to a pec injury. I’m really having trouble thinking that WAS will be able to stop anything on the ground without him.
The good part about this bet – Chuba is basically gamescript-proof. Out of the last 4 games where he had 90+ yards from scrimmage, they lost 3 of those games by 10 points or more. Regardless, he still gets the work, and Rookie 1st rounder Jonathon Brooks isn’t ready to come off the PUP yet. Expect more work for this stud, leading to more production.
Pick: Austin Ekeler Over (???) Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110) 2.0u via (???)*
*I’m good with this line wherever it gets set once WAS RB Brian Robinson’s status is confirmed near gametime.
Key Injuries impacting pick:
- CAR ILB Shaq Thompson (IR)
- CAR ILB backup to Shaq (C. Cherelus) – (Out)
- CAR OLB Jadaveon Clowney (Doubtful, unlikely to play)
- CAR LB Josey Jewell (Out)
No trust in Brian Robinson after coming back from injury – you’re in the same boat as me. Yet Carolina can get run on (and they’re usually in gamescripts that make running the ball the best course of action), as is evidenced by their 30th rank in rush yards allowed per game (over 150). So – we look to Austin Ekeler, who has looked great to this point regardless of BRob playing or not.
Ekeler is averaging 73.8 scrimmage yards per game – with a big workload in the passing game (more receiving yards to this point than rush yards). While CAR is exposed more against the run, they are middle-of-the-pack in yards allowed to RBs through the air – so they can be taken advantage of there as well.
BRob being a gametime decision – coupled with Ekeler’s solid production through the air and on the ground – makes this the play for this game. He may not be the redzone guy – but Ekeler is producing everywhere else on the field.
Game Three: Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers
Pick: George Kittle Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-105) 2.0u via Pinnacle
Key Injuries impacting pick:
- KC Edge Mike Danna (Out)
- SF WR Jauan Jennings (Out)
Death, taxes, and the KC Chiefs giving up production to TEs. That’s the way it’s been all year – as the Chiefs seem fine with you beating them over the middle as opposed to on the outside / on the ground. Let’s go through it.
The run defence for KC? Stellar with a Top 10 PFF grade and ranking 5th overall in rush yards allowed per game. Even with the 49ers enhanced focus on running the ball, RB Jordan Mason was limited through the week. So considering that + this matchup leads me to stay away from those lines.
Then – how KC has matched up against WRs. Out of 32 teams in the NFL, the Chiefs are 3rd best in yards allowed to WRs with a mere 110 receiving yards allowed per game. For reference – Lions top the list with over 210 receiving yards allowed per game to WRs. This KC secondary is stellar, and with Aiyuk + Deebo playing on the outside/slot, there should be an increased focus on shutting them down.
That leaves us with the TE position – and would you look at that – KC is the worst defence in the league when it comes to receiving yards allowed to TEs (81 yards per game). Sure, they shut down BAL TE Mark Andrews in Week 1, leading to the weird Isaiah Likely 100+ yard performance. But the key example I want to draw your eyes to is the game against Cincy.
We all know Cincy – they don’t use the TE much. They like to rely on their two stud WRs, Tee Higgs and Ja’Marr (akin to Deebo and Aiyuk). However – when Cincy played KC, the TEs went for 151 receiving yards on 14 receptions. That’s absurd when you consider the go-to guy in that game was Mike Gesicki (lol).
That’s why I’m confident in Kitts – he should be the go-to guy in the pass game, yet Aiyuk and Deebo both have higher lines. Lock it in.
Pick: Kareem Hunt Over 13.5 Receiving Yards (+107) 2.0u via Pinnacle
Key Injuries impacting pick:
- SF DT Javon Hargrave (IR)
- SF S Talanoa Hufanga (IR)
- SF Edge Yetur Gross-Matos (IR)
I’m taking the shot on Kareem getting more work through the air after the bye – as that’s one of the only places that KC can expose this SF defence based on the stats.
SF is very good against the run (Top 10 in PFF grading and yards allowed per game), they’re solid against TEs (Top 10 in yards allowed to TEs per game), and they’re decent against WRs (Top 15 in yards allowed to WRs per game). So – how do you attack the SF defence?
With your running back – through the air. While SF is solid in the trenches at shutting down running lanes, they give up the 5th most receiving yards to RBs per game (44 ypg allowed). Now consider that their best coverage LB, Fred Warner, will likely be locked on to Travis Kelce for a majority of the game. That leaves Hunt for some opportunities on dumpoffs and screens – where he’s already found some success with 3 catches and 30 receiving yards through 2 games.
C’mon Chiefs – make the right call, don’t force-feed the ball to Kelce, and move the ball efficiently down the field with Hunt. Let’s go.
Game Four: New York Jets vs Pittsburgh Steelers (SNF)
Pick: Najee Harris Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-118) 2.0u via Betsafe
Key Injuries impacting pick:
- NYJ CB Michael Carter II (Out)
- NYJ CB DJ Reed (Questionable, likely to play)
- NYJ DE Jermaine Johnson (IR)
- NYJ S Chuck Clark (Out)
Very square pick – but it’s as simple as this: if you want to have success against the NYJ defence, you have to run the ball. You saw their game against BUF last week right? The NYJ knew each and every time that BUF was going to run right down their throats – and that’s just what they did to the tune of 149 rush yards on 4.5 yards per carry. Sick.
I mean, it makes sense. The NYJ are Top 10 in PFF coverage grading and in pass yards allowed per game (2nd in the League at 148.8). However – if a team commits to the run, they’re a full-go on this NYJ D as they allow 124.2 rush yards per game. With PIT switching to QB Russ Wilson in this one (stupid), I’m expecting a run-heavy gameplan (as is usual for PIT, as they rank 2nd in the NFL in rush attempts per game at over 33).
The last piece of the puzzle – Najee. He looked so much stronger last week (106 rush yards on over 7 yards per attempt), albeit against a weaker defence in Las Vegas. Coming off that great performance, the volume should be there in this one with the PIT defence bringing the noise against Rodgers and the NYJs banged up OLine (both Tackles limited in practice this week).
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with more NFL picks. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
NFL Week Seven: Sunday Slate Best Bets – Top Player Props for Afternoon Games and SNF
Game One: Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Rams
Pick: Kyren Williams Over 87.5 Rushing Yards (-116) 2.0u via NorthStar
Pick: Brock Bowers Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-111) 2.0u via Sports Interaction
Game Two: Carolina Panthers vs Washington Commanders
Pick: Chuba Hubbard Over 95.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-105) 2.0u via Bet365
Pick: Austin Ekeler Over (???) Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110) 2.0u via (???)*
Game Three: Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers
Pick: George Kittle Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-105) 2.0u via Pinnacle
Pick: Kareem Hunt Over 13.5 Receiving Yards (+107) 2.0u via Pinnacle
Game Four: New York Jets vs Pittsburgh Steelers (SNF)
Pick: Najee Harris Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-118) 2.0u via Betsafe