Well, Week 8 in the NFL sure was something. The Rams started the week last Thursday with an ambitious upset vs the Vikes. Then – shit went crazy. It seemed like every TE popped off – and of course it happened on Kittle’s made-up holiday for TEs (only George could pull off such a feat). This TE-explosion was like finding water in the desert following the dismal TE performances we’ve seen to this point. On top of all that – the upsets came hot & heavy like Yankees fans after last night’s dub (psyche). The Browns beat the Ravens with Jameis looking like the saviour Cleveland deserves; the Cardinals beat the Dolphins, even with Tua back in the lineup slingin it; and worst of all – the Jets lost a game that looked impossible to lose as -7.5 favourites to the lowly Patriots.
In terms of our Player Props for last weekend, it was another strong showing at 13-9 on 22 picks with +$330 profit (if you’re betting with $100 units). That gets us up to +$1,150 profit in the last month – not bad for a guy that just loves to watch ball and write about it:
This week is no different – we’re looking for mismatches based on advanced analytics and PFF data. So, without further ado, let’s get to the Thursday Nighter.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
*All data from PFF.com premium subscription.
NFL Week Nine: TNF Best Bets – Top Player Props for Houston Texans vs New York Jets
Pick: CJ Stroud Under 221.5 Passing Yards (-110) 1.0u via Coolbet
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- HOU WR Nico Collins (IR)
- HOU WR Stefon Diggs (IR)
- NYJ LB CJ Mosley (Out)
- NYJ Safeties Ashtyn Davis and Tony Adams (Out)
I realize that this NYJ defence is banged up with Pro Bowl LB CJ Mosley on the shelf and their starting Safety (along with his backup) ruled Out. However – the stats tell the story when it comes to how CJ Stroud plays on the road against tough matchups – and regardless of the injuries to the NYJ defence, they still have a Top 5 CB tandem, with a stud slot Corner, and allow the 2nd least pass yards to opposing QBs per game (at a mere 180 pass yards/game):
It’s important to note that the Jets have faced some truly horrendous pass attacks to this point in the season (aiding their pass yards per game allowed). But, the only time the Jets have allowed more than 215 pass yards in a game since Week 1 – was to Russ and the Steelers in Week 7 (he was truly cooking that night). In that span, they played QBs such as Josh Allen, Sam Darnold, and Bo Nix (killing it right now). Full disclosure – you can make excuses for each one of those lacklustre QB performances (i.e. – Bills just ran the whole game because they could). But – those are some pretty decent QBs, and if I’m being honest: if those guys can’t surpass 215 pass yards on the Jets, I don’t see Stroud doing it with his two best pass-catching options Out.
Further – is it even fair to compare this version of Stroud to the Allen’s and Darnold’s of the League (hilarious I’m grouping those two together right now, but they’re both Top 10 QBs in my mind so far). Let’s play a fun game: I give you the matchups to this point in the season for the Texans, and you guess if Stroud had Over 215 pass yards in that matchup:
- Week 1 @ Indy
- Week 2 vs Chicago
- Week 3 @ Minnesota
- Week 4 vs JAX
- Week 5 vs BUF
- Week 6 @ NE
- Week 7 @ Green Bay
- Week 8 vs Indy
If you guessed that he only had over 215 pass yards in the home games and the @ Colts matchup (a truly horrendous defence) – you get a gold star. Away in Minnesota? 215 pass yards on the dot. Away in NE? 192 pass yards. Two weeks ago, away in Green Bay? 86 pass yards (ouchie). Proof is in the pudding – if I added @ Jets to the end of that list, would you be betting the Over?
You’re too smart for that – and with the way this Houston run game has been going with Mixon slugging it out (averaging over 100 rush yards per game at 5 yards per carry) behind a subpar OLine (Bottom 12 in both categories in PFF grading) – I’m betting they go that route. Further, with the pressure that Stroud has faced lately (18 QB pressures by the Colts last game), and with NYJ Edge Haason Reddick more game-ready after another week of practice – things could get real ugly for Stroud.
Pick: Garrett Wilson Over 21.5 Yards Longest Reception (-110) 1.0u via Bet99
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- HOU FS Jimmie Ward (Out)
- HOU LB Azeez Al-Shaair (Out)
- NYJ LB CJ Mosley (Out)
- NYJ Safeties Ashtyn Davis and Tony Adams (Out)
That game last week vs the Patriots – THAT’s what we’ve been looking for from Wilson. I can’t say Garrett’s played perfect football to this point in the season – but he’s extremely talented, and in an otherwise disappointing game, he showed that “Alpha WR1” ability.
Here’s an idea Jets – get Wilson going deeper down the field and keep Adams at a lower average-depth-of-target (ADOT) as a possession receiver. Oh, wait, they made that move last game? I wouldn’t have thought the Jets capable of making a right decision – but the stats bare it out:
- Wilson: 8 targets, 5 receptions, 113 receiving yards, 21.3 yard ADOT
- Adams: 7 targets, 4 receptions, 54 receiving yards, 9.3 yard ADOT
That’s what we’re looking for from Wilson on this prop – and don’t forget the cherry on top: HOU is allowing the 2nd worst average yards per reception to WRs in the NFL (14 receiving yards per reception). The deep ball has been the achilles heel for this defence – as there really aren’t any other weaknesses to exploit. The pass-rush is good, they’re Top 10 in pass yards allowed per game, and they’re Top 10 in rush yards allowed per game. So go with the easy cheese here – Wilson has that big play ability, as we saw with his 35 yard grab last game (among other big plays he’s had):
Last note: in four other games this year – he had a long reception of 23+ yards. Put that all together – and things are looking good for a Wilson long-shot.
Pick: Tyler Conklin Under 25.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.0u via Coolbet
A rare Under prop from me – this is all matchup-based. Conklin has actually been decently involved in this Jets pass attack (50+ receiving yards in 3 games this year), and it doesn’t hurt his upside that the Texans starting ILB and S are Out. Thing is – those two have both missed a few games now, yet the Texans D still refuses to allow TEs the ball.
Houston’s D when it comes to TE receiving yards allowed per game? Best in the NFL, allowing only 21 yards per game. For reference, the next best is 30 yards per game, and the worst is 80. That’s straight domination on the TEs.
Houston’s D when it comes to TE receptions allowed per game? Also best in the NFL, allowing a mere 2.62 receptions to opposing TEs per game. For reference, the next best allows 3.43 receptions per game, and the worst allows 7. Those two stats were staggering to me – so we have to ride the data.
I can hear it already: “But HOU obviously hasn’t played any decent TEs to this point.” Wrong. In just the last 4 weeks, Houston has played both Dalton Kincaid and Tucker Kraft – and neither put up more than 4 receptions or 35 receiving yards. That’s enough for me to bet against Conklin here – sorry guy.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with more NFL picks. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
NFL Week Nine: TNF Best Bets – Top Player Props for Houston Texans vs New York Jets
Pick: CJ Stroud Under 221.5 Passing Yards (-110) 1.0u via Coolbet
Pick: Garrett Wilson Over 21.5 Yards Longest Reception (-110) 1.0u via Bet99
Pick: Tyler Conklin Under 25.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.0u via Coolbet