We’re officially at the halfway point of the NFL Regular Season – and this week was as much fun as any we’ve had this year. There were some stellar early slate performances, followed by some fireworks on the afternoon slate with the Rams pulling out a huge dub in OT vs the Seahawks. As for how we performed with our analysis and player props picks – it was another successful week, as we pulled out a 11-6 record with over $400 profit (if you’re a $100 unit bettor):
You see the results in that post – almost $2,000 profit in the last 40 days if you stuck with my exclusive player props. It’s all free, for the love of the game – but we’re staying humble, because the steady climb can be derailed by poor reads and lack of effort on my part.
Lucky for all of you – I’ve been dialed in on the data, and the reads for tonight’s game are about as educated as they get. You can never guarantee a win in this game – but the effort put into these picks reflects the results. So, without further ado, let’s get to the picks.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
*All data from PFF.com premium subscription.
NFL Week Nine: MNF Best Bets – Top Player Props for Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs KC Chiefs – TE Edition
Pick: Cade Otten Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.1u via Coolbet
Pick: Cade Otten Over 5.5 Receptions (+110) 1.0u via NorthStar
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- KC DE Mike Danna (Out)
- TB WR Chris Godwin (IR)
- TB WR Mike Evans (Out)
- TB RB Bucky Irving (Questionable, expected to play)
- TB WR Jalen McMillan (Questionable, expected to play)
- TB WR Sterling Shepherd (Questionable, true question to play)
Yes – these are the most square picks on the board tonight, and almost everyone will be on Otten. I’m not buying into a public-heavy mush here though – there’s just too much going right for Otten in this offence right now.
I expect both Bucky Irving and McMillan to play in this one – but they might not be at their best out there, and the snaps/targets will likely be reduced (to an extent). However – it wouldn’t even really matter if they were at full health in this one, because the Chiefs shut down every aspect of opposing offences (except one aspect, which we’ll get to).
Pass yards allowed per game? Top 15 in the NFL at 220. Rush yards allowed per game? 1st in the NFL at a mere 50 allowed per game. Receiving yards allowed to RBs? 12th in the League at only 30 allowed per game. Receiving yards allowed to WRs? 1st in the NFL at 108 allowed per game. Those are absurd numbers, and it’s the only reason the Chiefs remain the only undefeated team in the NFL.
With all of that success elsewhere – the Chiefs have made what looks to be a logical decision in allowing TEs to go off. They are the worst team in the NFL when it comes to receptions allowed to TEs (7 per game) and receiving yards allowed to TEs (over 80 per game).
So – many people would jump to the conclusion that they’ve faced a killer’s row of TEs to this point of the season. And they have played some good ones. However, even the mediocre TEs go off vs the Chiefs D. Bengals TEs had combined for over 150 receiving yards and 14 receptions in Week 2 vs the Chiefs, and even the shitty Saints TEs (without Taysom Hill) had 7 receptions and over 40 receiving yards in their Week 5 matchup.
And now – they have Cade Otten on deck. A guy who may seem as mediocre as the Saints and Bengals TEs – but clearly isn’t when he becomes the #1 target in the offence. We only have one week of Godwin and Evans being Out (Week 8 vs ATL), but in that game, Otten was a magnet for targets. 11 targets, 9 receptions, and 80+ receiving yards: and that was all against an ATL D that gives up 2 receptions less per game to TEs, and 30 receiving yards less per game to TEs, when compared to the Chiefs.
Otten had a similarly juicy matchup vs the Ravens in Week 7 (Ravens give up 2nd most receiving yards to TEs per game, and Evans went out early in that one) – and would you look at that: he had 10 targets, 8 receptions, and 100 receiving yards. I have enough faith in the Otten + Mayfield combo to have these two picks locked and loaded tonight – regardless of how much the Chiefs game plan against Otten.
Pick: Travis Kelce Over 5.5 Receptions (-125) 1.25u via Pinnacle
Pick: Travis Kelce Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.1u via Coolbet
Pick: Noah Gray Over 2.5 Receptions (+132) 1.0u via Pinnacle
Pick: Noah Gray Over 21.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.1u via Coolbet
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- TB CB Tykee Smith (Questionable, likely to play)
- TB CB Jamel Dean (IR)
- TB S Antoine Winfield (Questionable, true question to play)
- KC WR Juju Smith-Schuster (Out)
- KC TE Jared Wylie (IR)
I guess I’m a little late to National TEs day – but I’m making up for it with this full board of TE plays. You know how I said that KC was the worst in the League at defending the TE position season-long? Well, about that.
TB came out firing against TEs, allowing a mere 20 receiving yards per game and close to 2 receptions per game to TEs. Then – shit hit the fan. It could be due to many things – the aging LB core with their two starters under 55 in PFF coverage grading, injuries and missed games from Pro Bowl Safety Antoine Winfield (likely missing this one), or schematic weaknesses due to increased blitz rate (Bucs have the 6th highest Blitz % in the NFL). It’s probably a combination of all three – but since that Week 3 game, here’s the production they’ve given up to opposing TEs:
- Week 4 vs Eagles: 9 receptions and 92 receiving yards allowed to a TE room led by Grandpa Goedert
- Week 5 vs Falcons: 7 receptions and 88 receiving yards allowed to the inconsistent Kyle Pitts and Co.
- Week 6 vs Saints: 5 receptions and 102 receiving yards allowed to ??? – Juwan Johnson & Foster Moreau (both went for over 48 receiving yards, lol)
- Week 7 vs Ravens: 7 receptions and 72 receiving yards allowed (the only one that makes sense here)
- Week 8 vs Falcons: 5 receptions and 104 receiving yards allowed (again to Pittsy)
If you’re keeping track at home – the averages given up to TEs since Week 4 would be 91.6 receiving yards per game and 6.6 receptions per game. That’s the most yards allowed to TEs per game since that point – and the 3rd most receptions. Yeah – this Bucs defence is primed to get burnt down the middle of the field.
And not much has to be said to support the Kelce pick. After a slow start to the season, the guy has gone over 7 receptions and 70 receiving yards in 3 of his last 4 games. He’s finally found his form – just in time to save this KC passing attack without Rashee Rice.
The sneaky pick: Noah “The Future” Gray. Lowkey – could take over for Kelce in the not-so-distant future. He’s an athletic big man that’s logging 67%+ of snaps in the last two weeks (with Kelce only at 77%+), and here’s his production as of late:
- Week 4 vs LAC (56 yards allowed to TEs per game): 4 receptions for 40 receiving yards
- Week 5 vs NO (56 yards allowed to TEs per game): 2 receptions for 29 receiving yards
- Week 6 vs SF (38 yards allowed to TEs per game): 4 receptions for 66 receiving yards
- Week 7 vs LV (60 yards allowed to TEs per game): 3 receptions for 23 receiving yards
That’s pretty steady production for a backup TE – and now Jared Whylie (who logged 24% of snaps last week) went on the IR, and the matchup is much more favourable vs the Bucs than any of those games. Let’s rock with the Gray + Kelce lines and ride this one to the bank.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with more NFL picks. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
NFL Week Nine: MNF Best Bets – Top Player Props for Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs KC Chiefs – TE Edition
Pick: Cade Otten Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.1u via Coolbet
Pick: Cade Otten Over 5.5 Receptions (+110) 1.0u via NorthStar
Pick: Travis Kelce Over 5.5 Receptions (-125) 1.25u via Pinnacle
Pick: Travis Kelce Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.1u via Coolbet
Pick: Noah Gray Over 2.5 Receptions (+132) 1.0u via Pinnacle
Pick: Noah Gray Over 21.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.1u via Coolbet