Well – we got our top player props for each and every NFL Sunday Morning game out in the free article yesterday. We had quite the intro and analysis there if you want to check it out (link below) – but with all that already covered – we’re jumping right into the picks for the afternoon slate and SNF.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
*All data from PFF.com premium subscription.
NFL Week Four Sunday Afternoon Slate & SNF: Best Bets
Game One: Washington Commanders vs Arizona Cardinals
Pick: Marvin Harrison Jr. Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 2.0u via Coolbet
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- ARI TE Trey McBride (Out)
- ARI OT Kelvin Beachum (Questionable, LP all week, likely to play)
- WAS RB Austin Ekeler (Out)
- WAS DE Clelin Ferrell (Out)
One thing that hasn’t changed to this point in the season – the WAS defence getting burnt through the air. They’re ranked 31st in pass coverage grade on PFF – and it shows, with Baker Mayfield and Joe Burrow both going for 280+ pass yards and 3+ TDs against this rag-tag squad. Hell, even Daniel Jones had a good passer rating against WAS with 178 pass yards, 2 TDs, and no picks. The Commanders defence is there to be exploited – and their 29th graded PFF pass rush doesn’t get near enough pressure to make up for the deficiencies in the secondary. Nobody with 70+ coverage snaps on this defence can pull a PFF grade higher than 60. That’s rough.
Meanwhile – this ARI OLine (that was projected to be a Bottom 5 unit in the League prior to the season) is actually performing well when it comes to pass protection. They’re Top 10 in PFF pass block grading through three games – and the matchups haven’t been easy in BUF (Top 10 in sacks), LAR (Top 10 in pressure rate), and DET (3rd in PFF pass rush grading). The ARI OLine is assisted by Kyler Murray’s ability to escape sacks, but there’s no doubt that Kyler should be able to get the ball out to his playmakers with good protection here.
With TE Trey McBride on the shelf after getting that conk last week – we’ll see a big opportunity for Marvin Harrison Jr. to own the target share in ARI this week. To this point, Mazerati Marv has 21 targets and 10 catches – with a pretty stellar 198 receiving yards through three weeks. ARI will have a harder time moving the ball on the ground with lost-a-step James Conner and this 17th PFF ranked run blocking ARI OLine. Unless this mediocre ARI defence can hold up against what looks to be a high-powered offence in WAS, the gamescript will be in our favour for more pass attempts – and therefore, more targets for Marv.
Let’s fire it up.
Pick: Jayden Daniels Over 210.5 Passing Yards (-114) 2.0u via NorthStar
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- ARI TE Trey McBride (Out)
- ARI OT Kelvin Beachum (Questionable, LP all week, likely to play)
- WAS RB Austin Ekeler (Out)
- WAS DE Clelin Ferrell (Out)
Okay friends – let’s ride the hot hand with JD taking us Over in this one. This pick basically comes down to the pure mismatches between the ARI passing defence and the WAS pass offence. Let me explain.
So – Washington. They’re the 27th PFF ranked run blocking OLine, and they’ve only had high-level success with their RBs against bad run defences (i.e. – the NYG). Austin Ekeler, the RB that looked most effective against a bad CIN rush defence last week, is now Out. Arizona – actually decent against the run. They held James Cook under 4 yards/carry in Week 1 and stunted the LAR rush attack in Week 2 (understandably, they got owned by DET in Week 3). With the ARI offence holding a decided advantage in the air against the WAS defence – there will be points. So, what do you think WAS will do?
Pass the damn ball – that’s what they’ll do. The passing game looked really in sync last week against a pretty decent CIN secondary. The key to that performance – JD having time to throw, as the WAS OLine handled a banged-up CIN DLine with ease. With more time, Jayden was able to open up the offence more, and this WAS OLine gets better with each game in pass protection (now ranked 10th in PFF pass block grading).
Meanwhile, ARI’s defence isn’t nearly as proficient in pass coverage as they are in rush defence. This 30th PFF graded pass coverage defence has trouble in all aspects of the secondary, and the pass-rush doesn’t get home nearly enough to speed up the opposing QB (25th PFF graded pass rush). Expect Jayden to take shots through the air at will – he’s on his way to another banger.
Game Two: Cleveland Browns vs Las Vegas Raiders
Pick: Brock Bowers Over 5.5 Receptions (+112) 2.0u via Betsafe
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- LV WR Devante Adams (Out)
- LV DE Maxx Crosby (Doubtful, DNP all week, unlikely to play)
- LV LB Divine Diablo (Out)
- LV TE Michael Mayer (Out)
- LV OT Thayer Munford (Doubtful, DNP all week, unlikely to play)
- CLE OT Jack Conklin (Out)
- CLE TE David Njoku (Out)
- CLE OT Jedrick Wills (Out)
How do you bet on anyone from the CLE side of this? Their lines are nerfed, so it’s hard to take Unders. Their OLine is in shambles, but Maxx Crosby likely won’t play. Well, I’ll just pass – as it’s my view that we’ll see a pretty tough LV defence out there after HC Pierce called them out last week for playing like Sally’s:
Therefore, we look to the Raiders – and with the injury situation they find themselves in, this one looks like a lock with Bowers leading the charge.
First off – good luck to LV if they want to run on this CLE defence. LV OT Thayer Munford likely won’t play (replaced by DJ Glaze – 58.4 PFF run block grade, subpar), and the CLE defensive front is at full health, ranked as the 7th best graded rush defence on PFF. LV before the Munford injury – 31st PFF graded run block unit. Not happening buds.
So – Raiders have to pass the ball. Number one target in the offence, Davante Adams, made some business decisions and vacates a 20%+ target share for Bowers to inherit. Bowers was already challenging for being the #1 target in this offence through the first three weeks – leading all TE’s in receptions (18) and ranking 2nd in TE receiving yards (197). If he’s not the go-to guy in this spot – I don’t know who is. Let’s lock it in.
Pick: Tre Tucker Over 18.5 Yards Longest Reception (-105) 2.0u via Betway
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- LV WR Devante Adams (Out)
- LV DE Maxx Crosby (Doubtful, DNP all week, unlikely to play)
- LV LB Divine Diablo (Out)
- LV TE Michael Mayer (Out)
- LV OT Thayer Munford (Doubtful, DNP all week, unlikely to play)
- CLE OT Jack Conklin (Out)
- CLE TE David Njoku (Out)
- CLE OT Jedrick Wills (Out)
Out goes Davante – in goes Tre to fill his spot. Tucker isn’t a proven commodity by any stretch of the imagination – but he does have burners, and he knows how to catch balls downfield.
Last year, this guy had a 19+ yard average-depth-of-target – that’s nuts, and good for 2nd highest in the NFL among those with 15+ receptions last year. That means he specialized in the deep ball – and while he hasn’t popped one off this year, he’s got all the opportunity in the world in this one with a projected 50%+ boost in snaps and QB Minshew T-5th in pass completions of 20+ yards this year.
Just like Bowers – he’s going up against a bad defence – one that’s allowed 7 receptions and 229 receiving yards on 20+ yard passes to this point (Bottom 5 in the NFL). Expect at least one long snag in this game – and Tucker should be the recipient.
Game Three: KC Chiefs vs LA Chargers
Pick: Ladd McConkey Over 3.5 Receptions (-115) 2.0u via Betway
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- LAC OT Joe Alt (Out)
- LAC OT Rashawn Slater (Out)
- LAC LB Junior Colson (Out)
- LAC OLB Joey Bosa (Out)
- LAC QB Justin Herbert (Questionable, expected to play)
- LAC CB Ja’Sir Taylor (Questionable, unlikely to play)
- KC DE Mike Danna (Out)
Wow – just as I thought the LAC were figuring out their injury situation with new strength and conditioning coach Herbert. Guess not – as LAC is without their two stud OT’s and one of their stud pass-rushers. Even Justin Herbert has the injury tag – but nothing stops that guy from playing, so I expect him in.
Where will KC kill this Chargers offence? At the line of scrimmage, as Chris Jones and Co. rank as the 9th PFF graded pass-rush. Slater and Alt are BY FAR the best PFF graded pass blockers on this OLine, with the other three guys holding sub-49 PFF pass blocking grades (that’s turrible). I expect pressure to build up – especially with LAC struggling in the run game (middle of the pack LAC PFF run block grade without Slater + Alt and middle of the pack KC PFF rush defence grade – cancel each other out).
With a lot of pressure and the lack of a run game – Herbert will have to get the ball out of his hands quickly. Who, out of the LAC WRs, has a low average-depth-of-target and the most slot snaps on this LAC offence? McConkey, of course.
Ladd is the leader in targets (17) for this team, and KC slot CB Chammarri Conner has given up 12 catches for 89 yards to this point in the season (most receptions allowed by KC CBs). Volume, volume, volume – that’s the name of the game for Ladd here.
Pick: Carson Steele Over 12.5 Rush Attempts (+105) 2.0u via Sports Interaction
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- LAC OT Joe Alt (Out)
- LAC OT Rashawn Slater (Out)
- LAC LB Junior Colson (Out)
- LAC OLB Joey Bosa (Out)
- LAC QB Justin Herbert (Questionable, expected to play)
- LAC CB Ja’Sir Taylor (Questionable, unlikely to play)
- KC DE Mike Danna (Out)
I’m calling my shot here – I still think Steele gets the majority of carries in this backfield with Kareem Hunt being activated to the 53-man roster. There’s a reason Kareem was left on the FA pile until last week – the juice isn’t worth the squeeze, and he’s obviously lost a step. Steele went hard against a solid rush defence in Atlanta (12th PFF graded rush defence), racking up 72 rush yards on 17 attempts. And the Chiefs weren’t even leading by a large margin in that one – KC runs the football regardless of the game script.
In this one – KC’s line is -7. You think they won’t be feeding Steele the ball as they salt away this game? This LAC defence is strongest in pass coverage through three games, ranked as the 2nd PFF pass coverage graded defence. That’s not good news for KC and their mediocre passing offence (truly, Mahomes has mediocre numbers – the weapons just aren’t there). Where LAC can be exploited? Pittsburgh showed where last week. The run game and play action. LAC ranks as the 10th PFF rush defence, but loses Bosa this week (their highest PFF graded run defender by a mile) and just got thrashed by Najee Harris.
KC should be able to find success through the run game – and if they can do that, why would they throw the ball against this tough pass defence? I think Steele gets absolutely fed.
Game Four – Sunday Night Football: Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens
Pick: Keon Coleman Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (-114) 2.0u via NorthStar
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- BAL DT Michael Pierce (Doubtful, unlikely to play)
- BAL OG Andrew Vorhees (Doubtful, unlikely to play)
- BUF LC Terrel Bernard (Out)
- BUF CB Taron Johnson (Out)
We had Shakir’s Over last week because the opposing slot CB was so poor in that matchup – and he smashed it. Now – we have a damn good slot CB in Marlon Humphrey ready to lock down Shakir/Kincaid (don’t know which way they’ll go for that matchup, but I’d lean Hump being on Shakir with Kyle Hamilton on Kincaid). Where this BAL secondary can be exploited (leading to their 23rd PFF ranked pass coverage unit) – at the outside CB position, where Brandon Stephens and Nate Wiggins have given up a combined 254 receiving yards (Stephens has given up the most receiving yards on the team). Coleman will see a lot of these two – and he should be the guy getting the targets with how things have shook out in this Bills offence.
Coleman is the clear #3 on this team when it comes to routes run (Hollins, Shakir, and Coleman are all 50+) – and he has the most targets by outside WR’s on this team. All while rocking a 0% slot snap percentage (even Hollins gets in the slot, and that’s where Shakir lives). This is Coleman’s matchup to exploit – as things may be tough on the ground for this Bills offence with BAL ranking 3rd in PFF rush defence and BUF’s OLine 26th in PFF run blocking.
Pick: Lamar Jackson Over 9.5 Rush Attempts (+105) 2.0u via Betway
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- BAL DT Michael Pierce (Doubtful, unlikely to play)
- BAL OG Andrew Vorhees (Doubtful, unlikely to play)
- BUF LC Terrel Bernard (Out)
- BUF CB Taron Johnson (Out)
I saw this BUF defence go up against a mobile QB in Week One – and Kyler Murray ran all over their collective ass. The pass coverage is good for this Bills D (13th PFF graded pass coverage unit) – but the pass rush is even better, ranked as the 5th best pass rush in PFF grading. They get after the QB well – but they get gouged in the run game (26th graded PFF rush defence). While we only have a one game sample size of a mobile QB vs BUF – it’s enough for me, especially with Lamar going for 88 rush yards on 14 rush attempts last week while DHen also ate on the ground.
OG Vorhees is Out, but he’s been mediocre in every sense of the word based on his pass block and run block PFF grades. Meanwhile, BUF are still without their athletic LB duo of Milano and Bernard – leading to a perfectly exploitable matchup for Lamar to scramble his dick off.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with more NFL picks. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
NFL Week Four Sunday Afternoon Slate & SNF: Best Bets
Game One: Washington Commanders vs Arizona Cardinals
Pick: Marvin Harrison Jr. Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 2.0u via Coolbet
Pick: Jayden Daniels Over 210.5 Passing Yards (-114) 2.0u via NorthStar
Game Two: Cleveland Browns vs Las Vegas Raiders
Pick: Brock Bowers Over 5.5 Receptions (+112) 2.0u via Betsafe
Pick: Tre Tucker Over 18.5 Yards Longest Reception (-105) 2.0u via Betway
Game Three: KC Chiefs vs LA Chargers
Pick: Ladd McConkey Over 3.5 Receptions (-115) 2.0u via Betway
Pick: Carson Steele Over 12.5 Rush Attempts (+105) 2.0u via Sports Interaction
Game Four – Sunday Night Football: Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens
Pick: Keon Coleman Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (-114) 2.0u via NorthStar
Pick: Lamar Jackson Over 9.5 Rush Attempts (+105) 2.0u via Betway