Another week of NFL = more data for us to crunch and churn out winners. This last week was another good one for our player props picks – 25+ props going for +3 units is all in a week’s work friends. That now has us at +8 units over the last 10 days ($800 profit if you’re a $100 unit bettor) – not a big dealllllll.
We’re having a lot of fun doing the analysis – and we get to sit down every Sunday and have a great time watching props cash. Tonight – we’re looking to continue to stellar reads in an interesting matchup between two teams that should make the Playoffs. Baker has been lighting the lamp with this Bucs offence not skipping a beat after the change from Canales to Coen at OC. Meanwhile – the gritty Falcons just continue to keep games close – always leaving themselves a chance for the backdoor cover and upset win. We have 5 player props we feel great about tonight based on the data – so without further ado, let’s get to the analysis.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
*All data from PFF.com premium subscription.
NFL Week Five TNF: Best Bets for TB Buccaneers vs ATL Falcons
Pick One: Drake London Over 5.5 Receptions (+102) 1.0u via NorthStar
Pick Two: Drake London Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (+100) 1.0u via Bet365
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- ATL LB Troy Anderson (Out)
- ATL C Drew Dalman (IR)
- TB OT Luke Goedeke (Out)
- TB DT Calijah Kancey (Out)
- TB WR Jalen McMillan (Out)
- TB WR Trey Palmer (Out)
- TB S Antoine Winfield (Out)
London may be one of the more disappointing fantasy picks to this point in the season – but that doesn’t mean he isn’t producing at a much higher rate than last year. 20 receptions for 200 yards through four weeks is a pretty mediocre stat line – but he’s been consistent, with 50+ receiving yards and 6+ receptions in 3 out of 4 games. Not only that: but his targets have also increased as the season’s gone along. 3 targets in Week One, 7 targets in Week Two, 9 targets in Week Three, and 12 targets in Week 4. Now – he gets a Bucs defence that can defend the run very well (at least when TB DT Vita Vea is playing), but has difficulty with certain matchups in the secondary. Let’s get into it.
Off the rip – this TB defence has done a stellar job in pass coverage to this point in the season, ranking 2nd in PFF pass coverage grading. This is made all the more impressive when considering All-Pro Safety Antoine Winfield has been Out for all four games to start the year. Head Coach/Defensive Play-Caller Todd Bowles is a schematic genius – but these CB’s still give up receiving yardage. TB CB Jamel Dean, the outside CB who should see alot of London, has allowed the most receiving yards to opposing pass-catchers on the team (17 receptions for 222 receiving yards – 8th most receiving yards allowed among NFL CBs). Further – London’s actually been playing from the slot at an increased rate (steadily risen from 27% slot snaps in Week One to 43% in Week Four). Guess who has given up the 2nd most yards among the TB secondary? That’s right – the slot corner, Tykee Smith (16 receptions allowed for 127 receiving yards). Whatever way you cut it – London has a good matchup in this one, despite the fearsome PFF coverage grade of this Bucs D.
I know what you’re thinking: why doesn’t ATL just run the ball with the fearsome duo of Bijan + Allgeier? Well – here’s the RB rushing totals for opposing teams when TB DT All-Pro Vita Vea has played this season:
- WSH RBs: 15 carries for 50 rush yards
- DEN RBs: 23 carries for 89 rush yards
- PHI RBs: 12 carries for 93 rush yards (Saquon’s a beast, had a 59 yard rush)
You’ll see that other than that Saquon 50+ bust-off run – RBs have been held in check for an incredible 3.5 yards/carry allowed. ATL RB Bijan Robinson struggled last game (4 yards/carry) against a Saints run defence that’s 17th in PFF rush defence grading. I expect more reliance on the pass game for the Falcons in this one due to the perceived struggles they’ll face on the ground.
Last point – game script. You think that high-powered Bucs offence (that’s impotent in the run game) won’t drive points up in this game with the ATL defence susceptible through the air? We’ll get into that mismatch below – but let’s just say that the ATL pass coverage unit (10th in PFF grading) looks susceptible to this TB passing game (9th in PFF grading) in certain areas. That’s enough for me to think more receptions + receiving yards for Drako – let’s hit it.
Pick Three: Chris Godwin Over 6.5 Receptions (+113) 1.0u via Pinnacle
Pick Four: Chris Godwin Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-111) 1.0u via Pinnacle
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- ATL LB Troy Anderson (Out)
- ATL C Drew Dalman (IR)
- TB OT Luke Goedeke (Out)
- TB DT Calijah Kancey (Out)
- TB WR Jalen McMillan (Out)
- TB WR Trey Palmer (Out)
- TB S Antoine Winfield (Out)
Godwin – my man in the slot. This is one slot WR who I love to bet on – the guy’s just so consistent, and has such a defined role in the Bucs offence. Now – they have two of their backup WR’s missing in this one (less targets filtered away from Godwin) and there’s a really good matchup for Godwin against a mediocre slot corner. Things are looking up for Rod (that’s Godwin’s real first name – so dumb of him not to take advantage of the Rod-God nickname).
Let’s just take a high-level look at things for Godwin. 8 targets, 6+ receptions, and 50+ receiving yards in every game this season. Chris has the “safety-blanket, middle-of-the-field” role on lock in this offence. He’s taking 63% of his snaps from the slot, and his solid performances have come in tough matchups against Denver (5th in PFF pass coverage grading) and Detroit (12th in PFF pass coverage grading). Now – they have a similar matchup with the 10th ranked PFF pass coverage team in ATL – but the matchup in the slot is what this one is all about.
ATL’s DB that plays the most in the slot? ATL CB Dee Alford – who has the worst PFF pass coverage grade in this ATL secondary (52.7). Dee has also allowed the most receiving yards to opposing pass-catchers (176 receiving yards on 21 receptions), accounting for 32% of receiving yards given up by this team (out of 6 full-time players in the secondary). The spot is there for Godwin – especially with Evans attracting the tougher coverage from the outside CBs.
Lock it in – death, taxes, and Godwin Overs in good matchups.
Pick Five: Baker Mayfield Over 22.5 Pass Completions (-111) 1.0u via Betano
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- ATL LB Troy Anderson (Out)
- ATL C Drew Dalman (IR)
- TB OT Luke Goedeke (Out)
- TB DT Calijah Kancey (Out)
- TB WR Jalen McMillan (Out)
- TB WR Trey Palmer (Out)
- TB S Antoine Winfield (Out)
You get the message, right? Mediocre TB run game (26th in PFF running back ranks, 13th in PFF run blocking, 25th in rush yards/game). Pretty decent run defence for ATL (13th in PFF rush defence ranks with tough matchups against Saquon, Pacheco, and Kamara). Unless TB gives the reins to Bucky Irving – and the run blocking sans starting Tackle Goedeke goes nuclear – the Bucs will have to move the ball through the air. Seeing as ATL will likely be able to get some points on the board – it’s obvious we need to take this Over.
I mean, c’mon. The Bucs don’t rush for first downs – they pass for them (4th in the NFL in passing play first downs). Baker through 4 games: 30+ pass attempts and 24+ completions in 3/4 of them. It’s clear that the pass game is the route the Bucs want to travel through every game – and now, we get a matchup that should have some points scored, and the opposing secondary isn’t a lockdown unit like DEN or NYJ.
What are you waiting for folks – let’s get it in.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with more NFL picks. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
NFL Week Five TNF: Best Bets for TB Buccaneers vs ATL Falcons
Pick One: Drake London Over 5.5 Receptions (+102) 1.0u via NorthStar
Pick Two: Drake London Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (+100) 1.0u via Bet365
Pick Three: Chris Godwin Over 6.5 Receptions (+113) 1.0u via Pinnacle
Pick Four: Chris Godwin Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-111) 1.0u via Pinnacle
Pick Five: Baker Mayfield Over 22.5 Pass Completions (-111) 1.0u via Betano