Well, Week 4 of the NFL Season was absolutely electric, as we continue to stack up the winnings with our player prop bonanza every Sunday. We had a lot of fun breaking down every game last Sunday – and we continue to look for mismatches and valuable betting lines to make the season even more exciting than it already is. We had a winning night again on Thursday – with Drake London absolutely clutching up to continue our streak in Primetime games.
This weekend – we have even more stellar plays to share – with the analysis to back it all up with PFF data and advanced stats leading the way. Let’s have a great time on Sunday and cash some slips – now, the analysis.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
*All data from PFF.com premium subscription.
NFL Week Five Sunday Best Bets – Morning Slate
Game One: New York Jets vs Minnesota Vikings (London)
Pick: Aaron Rodgers Over 32.5 Pass Attempts (-115) 1.0u via Bet365
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- NYJ OT Morgan Moses (Out)
- NYJ LB CJ Mosley (Doubtful)
With the Jets set to face the best team in the NFL this Sunday – there’s really not much predictability to this game. The Jets secondary and pass-rush has looked pretty stellar as of late – but the only decent QB they’ve played to this point in the season is Brock Purdy in Week One – and we all saw how that went:
So – one would assume the Vikes will have relative success with their pass game going against the Jets D – and they have a decided advantage in the run game with Aaron Jones turning back the clock. If Minnesota succeeds on offence (as I believe they will), Rodgers will have to get the passing game going – especially so considering the Vikes rank as 2nd in PFF rush defence grading (NYJ are 27th in rush yards per game this year).
The Jets will face difficulty in the run game – and the pass game may not have that “explosive” element that many NYJ fans are clamouring for. The Jets OLine has performed valiantly in pass protection to this point in the season – but that last game with RT Morgan Moses Out showed how susceptible this unit can be. They played DEN last week, and while that is a decent pass-rush (17th in PFF grading), replacement RT Fashanu gave up 5 QB pressures and 4 QB hurries. Overall – the line gave up 3 sacks, 8 hurries, and 13 pressures. That’s not at all encouraging with the Vikes racking up 56 pressures through 4 games – so I’d expect Rodgers to be limited to throws around the line of scrimmage as opposed to deep shots.
You know what that means – more pass attempts for Rodgers, as he’ll have to move the ball more methodically with a lower ADOT to have any semblance of success against this defence. That all adds up to this pick – so lock it in.
Pick: Garrett Wilson Over 4.5 Receptions (-128) 1.0u via Betano
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- NYJ OT Morgan Moses (Out)
- NYJ LB CJ Mosley (Doubtful)
This goes along with the pick for Rodgers – as he’ll have to throw the ball more to shorter areas of the field with the projected pressure coming from the Vikings D. I believe the recipient of the majority of Rodgers’ completions will be Mr. Wilson – as it’s very hard to trust any other WR in this Jets pass-catching room.
It’s not only that though. Wilson has been on the end of some poor performances, primarily due to gameplanning from opposing DC’s – as has been stated by his QB:
My guess is – the Jets will have an increased focus on getting Wilson the ball. Best to grease the wheel before it gets squeaky. Further, while the Vikes rank as the 8th best PFF graded pass coverage unit, they have a serious deficiency at slot corner, where slot CB Byron Murphy has given up the most receiving yards to opposing pass-catchers in the NFL through 4 games (353 receiving yards allowed). That’s a tasty matchup for Wilson, who has a 39% slot usage in this offence (tied with Lazard for the most in the Jets WR room).
Further – we’ve seen this Vikings secondary give up big yards to good WR’s – as they often get the lead early and leave that as the only option for opposing offences. Last week, it was GB WR Jayden Reed going for 150+ yards. The week before: Diggs and Collins both went for 80+ receiving yards. The production is there to be had – Garrett just has to take advantage.
Game Two: Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans
Pick: James Cook Over 80.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115) 1.0u via NorthStar
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- BUF DT Ed Oliver (Out)
- BUF S Taylor Rapp (Out)
- BUF WR Khalil Shakir (Out)
- BUF LB Terrell Bernard (Questionable)
- BUF CB Taron Johnson (Questionable)
- HOU OT Tytus Howard (Questionable)
- HOU DE Jerry Hughes (Out)
- HOU RB Joe Mixon (Out)
- HOU LB Jake Hansen (Questionable)
Jimothy Timothy Cook – he’s got a smash spot this week with the HOU defence on tap. HOU is ranked as the 19th PFF rush defence – but even that seems generous with the production they’ve given up to RBs. Last week against JAX, a pretty mediocre rushing team? 150+ rush yards given up, on 6.7 yards/carry. The week before against Minnesota, a good rushing team? 100+ rush yards for Aaron Jones at over 4 yards/carry. Indy in Week One? 100+ rush yards allowed at over 4.5 yards per carry. This defence is there to be exploited by opposing RB’s – and the BUF pass game may take a step back with Shakir, their best pass-catcher, Out in this one.
I get it – this HOU defence can be exploited through the air too, and with this game likely to be a high-scoring affair, you’d think that means less rushes for James. But that’s ignoring the fact that James has 10+ touches in every game this year – even the game last week where they were getting blown out by Baltimore. To make things even more concrete, he’s averaging 4.5 yards/rush this year, and here are his totals in the three games before last week against Baltimore’s nasty defence:
- Week One vs AZ (Top 15 PFF rush defence): 23 touches for 103 yards
- Week Two vs MIA (Top 10 PFF rush defence): 12 touches for 99 yards
- Week Three vs JAX: 15 touches for 87 yards
All of those games – he would’ve cleared this line. Now, he’s going up against a worse rush defence and he’ll likely have more targets filtered his way due to Shakir being out. This one’s a banger – hit it.
Pick: Stefon Diggs Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (+100) 1.0u via Bet365*
*This play is only live if BUF slot CB Taron Johnson plays for the first time since Week 1 after he was limited in practice all week. He’s a stud corner – and this pick relies on a mismatch with the BUF slot CB currently playing. Make sure to monitor his status prior to the game.
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- BUF DT Ed Oliver (Out)
- BUF S Taylor Rapp (Out)
- BUF WR Khalil Shakir (Out)
- BUF LB Terrell Bernard (Questionable)
- BUF CB Taron Johnson (Questionable)
- HOU OT Tytus Howard (Questionable)
- HOU DE Jerry Hughes (Out)
- HOU RB Joe Mixon (Out)
- HOU LB Jake Hansen (Questionable)
Diggs has been quite the surprise this year – in only good ways. Many thought he’d be low man on the totem pole with Dell and Collins already having solid rapport with QB CJ Stroud – but that hasn’t been the case. Collins has been a stud – but Dell seems to get edged out by Diggs. I know Dell got hurt Week 3, and was out Week 4, leading to more Diggs. But even if Dell plays in this one, I’d consider his workload dialed back to some extent – and Diggs gets to eat yet again with a smash-spot matchup in the slot.
Diggs has the highest slot-snap percentage on HOU by a mile (61% compared to Dell’s 28%). In fact, he has more slot snaps this year (99) than any player in this game (Shakir is next at 75 slot snaps). He’s getting heavy utilization in this role, going for 20 targets, 15 receptions, and 150+ receiving yards over his last two games. With the Bills set to have a day on offence with Cook + Allen owning the ground, I would expect Houston to stick through the air on offence, especially with RB Mixon likely Out (we’ve seen the Cam Akers show – it sucks).
Meanwhile – BUF has Safety Cam Lewis and CB Ja’Marcus Ingram manning the slot spots on defence. Cam Lewis – one of the worst PFF pass coverage grades I’ve seen (44.3) while allowing more receiving yards than any other DB in this game (216 yards). CB Ingram? He has a better PFF rating, but has allowed 50 receiving yards in only a fraction of the snaps (60 coverage snaps played). The Bills D is there to be had in the slot – which becomes magnified even further with starting Safety Taylor Rapp ruled Out for this one. Hit it.
Game Three: Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Derrick Henry Over 7.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.0u via Bet365
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- CIN CB Mike Hilton (Questionable – unlikely to play DNP’s all week)
- CIN DT Sheldon Rankins (Doubtful)
- CIN DE Myles Murphy (Questionable)
I know, I know – this one might seem a little contrarian. BAL RB Justice Hill is the guy catching passes out of this backfield, and the CIN rush defence has been anything but impressive to this point. However – DHen has a very gettable receiving line here – and I’m expecting Baltimore to be a little shy in the run game with the Bengals running up the score in this one. Let’s get into why.
Baltimore – a great rush defence with a good pass rush. The secondary? Struggle-bus city to this point in the season by Baltimore’s standards (15th in PFF pass coverage grade). Sure, the Bills offence got stuffed in a locker last week in all aspects of the game. But we’ve seen this Baltimore secondary get diced up by the likes of Gardiner Minshew and Dak Prescott (both going for over 275 passing yards). If I had to guess – I’d expect the Bengals to rely solely on their passing game – which has looked pretty potent in every game following Week One. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins on these outside corners (BAL’s best CB, Marlon Humphrey, plays in the slot) – I expect points in this one, which should lighten Henry’s workload on the ground to an extent.
But then again – pass-catching backs haven’t had a ton of success against this Cincy defence. RBs Austin Ekeler and Chuba Hubbard were both kept under 30 receiving yards – so it’s obvious that they have a lock-on for the small, quick pass-catchers out of the backfield. However – that really doesn’t speak much to the designated screen game for DHen with his size and creative offensive scheming.
Yes – DHen only has 5 receptions this year for 45 receiving yards. But he’s had at least one reception and 10+ receiving yards in 3 of 4 games this year. It seems they’re becoming even more comfortable with him in the screen game, where he got 3 targets last game and churned out a receiving touchdown. Henry’s rushing line has gotten out of control – so why not take the easier cash with this one.
Pick: Zay Flowers Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.0u via Coolbet
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- CIN CB Mike Hilton (Questionable – unlikely to play DNP’s all week)
- CIN DT Sheldon Rankins (Doubtful)
- CIN DE Myles Murphy (Questionable)
As I said above – I’m expecting more passing volume from Baltimore in this one. Ipso facto – more work for their WR1. While this hasn’t been the case recently – Flowers is primed for a big game in this matchup.
Mike Hilton, the starting slot CB for Cincy, likely won’t play this weekend. Hilton has been very solid for Cincy, allowing a mere 78 receiving yards through 4 games. Now – we get a backup filling in for him, likely CB DJ Turner. Turner …. isn’t very good. He has a good PFF coverage grade on limited snaps (only 45 coverage snaps through 4 games) – but if we look to his PFF grading last year, he possessed one of the worst PFF coverage grades I’ve seen (48.4) while giving up 664 receiving yards (most yards allowed by CIN DBs last year). Zay lines up in the slot the most out of BAL WRs. You do the math.
Zay – the forgotten man on the BAL offence with DHen owning the rock the last two weeks. 30 receiving yards on 4 receptions over the last two games – pretty bad. That may have led you to forget that Zay had 13 receptions and almost 140 receiving yards through the first two games of the season. Further, Zay is still the leader in targets in this offence (24), and with the matchup and projected game script – it’s time for him to eat.
Game Four: Chicago Bears vs Carolina Panthers
Pick: Chuba Hubbard Over 79.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115) 1.0u via NorthStar
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- CAR LB Josey Jewell (Out)
- CAR LB Shaq Thompson (Out)
- CAR OG Robert Hunt (Questionable)
- CAR DT Shy Tuttle (Questionable)
- CHI OG Teven Jenkins (Questionable)
How do you beat this stellar CHI defence? Well, not through the air. The CHI secondary has been on a tear this year, as they’ve held opposing passers to these kind of numbers:
- Week One vs Titans: Levis goes for 127 yards, 1 TD, and 2 interceptions
- Week Two vs Texans: Stroud goes for 260 pass yards and 1 TD (mediocre numbers for that stud)
- Week Three vs Colts: Richardson goes for 167 yards, 0 TDs, and 2 interceptions
- Week Four vs Rams: Stafford goes for 224 yards, 0 TDs, and 1 interception
You can make the excuse that 3/4 QBs on that list might not be “elite” quarterbacks (although Stafford is Top 10 with all of his weapons healthy) – the fact remains that I don’t believe Andy Dalton to be at the “Stroud” level. I mean, even that game by Stroud wasn’t all that impressive – and it was his worst completion percentage of the year. Andy came back down to earth last week with only 220 pass yards against a lacking CIN secondary – so I won’t expect a prolific passing game.
Meanwhile – you can absolutely run the ball on this CHI defence. They’re graded as the 22nd rush defence in the NFL – and they recently let up 100+ scrimmage yards to Kyren Williams and Jonathan Taylor. If that bodes well for anyone, it’s Chuba Hubbard, with 150+ scrimmage yards in Week Three vs LV, followed up by 120+ scrimmage yards in Week Four vs CIN. Vegas and Cincy are both bad run defences – and the hits keep coming this week with CHI (especially with my projection that CHI’s offence struggles against this CAR D – see below).
Pick: Caleb Williams Over 20.5 Pass Completions + Under 216.5 Pass Yards (+282) 0.5u via Coolbet
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- CAR LB Josey Jewell (Out)
- CAR LB Shaq Thompson (Out)
- CAR OG Robert Hunt (Questionable)
- CAR DT Shy Tuttle (Questionable)
- CHI OG Teven Jenkins (Questionable)
Maybe trying to thread the needle a bit with this one – but it’s well worth it for what I project to be a conservative gameplan through the air for CHI.
It comes down to a few things – one of the biggest being the way this CAR team plays defence. They appear to give up everything underneath – where the numbers show a lower ADOT for opposing QBs when they go up against this unit. We saw it last week, where Joe Burrow went for a 6.0 yard ADOT, whereas he was at 7.5 and 7.4 the two weeks before. While this D can get shredded on the ground (25th PFF graded rush defence), they’ve held up well in the pass game as of late.
On the other side of the coin – the biggest part of this equation, which comes down to the Bears offensive game-planning. CAR should have relative offensive success through Hubbard – so I imagine the Bears relying on a conservative approach of runs and short passes. Further, you don’t have to look too far to see Caleb’s limitations within this offence. He has both: (i) the most 20+ air yard pass attempts, and (ii) the lowest 20+ air yard completion percentage in the League (under 15%). However – he’s tied for 11th in pass completions from 0-9 yards. OC Waldron has such a stupid offence – and one of the things it’s predicated on is deep shots mixed with passes near the line of scrimmage. The deep shots aren’t working – but the short passes are. While they might not be nearly as effective – it’s what CHI is comfortable with.
It all lines up – take these lines together and let’s cash.
Game Five: Cleveland Browns vs Washington Commanders
Pick: Amari Cooper Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-109) 1.0u via Betano
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- CLE OT Jack Conklin (Questionable)
- CLE OT Jedrick Wills (Questionable)
- CLE LB Jordan Hicks (Out)
- CLE TE David Njoku (Questionable)
- WAS RB Brian Robinson (Questionable)
- WAS DE Clelin Ferrell (Out)
- WAS OG Nick Allegretti (Questionable)
Let’s get this straight – despite the Commanders secondary performing at an NFL average level vs Arizona last week, they are not good. That’s especially so for their outside cornerback Benjamin St. Juste, who’s given up a team-worst 224 receiving yards on 19 receptions this year (7th worst in the NFL). It’s not like WAS has worldbeaters at the other secondary spots (all starters are sub-65 in PFF coverage grades) – but this is the guy that’s going to get exploited.
Meanwhile – the WR for CLE with the most outside snaps and targets – continues to be Amari Cooper. He had 80+ receiving yards in Week Three against a similarly bad secondary in the NYG – and he would have had 80+ again last week had his bomb not been called back on a cheese-dick holding call:
Cooper still has it – as you can see from that clip.
Meanwhile, I’m expecting much better protection from this CLE OLine with my projection that their two starting Tackles likely play for the first time since Week One. Even with these additions to the trenches, the run game should still struggle for CLE (bottom 5 in PFF run block grading and yet to have an RB go for 65+ rush yards in a game). They have the exploitable matchup through the air – and with more protection, the routes should develop for Cooper on his way to a big game.
Pick: Austin Ekeler Over ?? Receiving Yards (-110) 1.0u via ??*
*I don’t see a current line for Ekeler’s receiving yards – likely due to the uncertainty of Brian Robinson. Regardless of the line, or if Robinson plays, I’m good with this one. When it opens, take the best line available my friends.
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- CLE OT Jack Conklin (Questionable)
- CLE OT Jedrick Wills (Questionable)
- CLE LB Jordan Hicks (Out)
- CLE TE David Njoku (Questionable)
- WAS RB Brian Robinson (Questionable)
- WAS DE Clelin Ferrell (Out)
- WAS OG Nick Allegretti (Questionable)
I have been mighty impressed with Ekeler to this point in the season – he looks like he has his juice back. Understandable with the shape his ankle was in for most of last season:
(post on x about ekeler ankle)
Ekeler’s coming off a conky, but he cleared the protocol and will be a full-go in this one. Meanwhile, the thunder to Ekeler’s lightning, Brian Robinson, is severely banged up and will likely be Out/severely limited for this contest. That’s more snaps and opportunities for Ekeler to do what he does best – catch the ball.
This CLE defence? Lowkey good against the run and in pass rush (Top 5 in PFF grading in both those areas). Where they can be exploited? Through the air before the pass rush gets home (25th PFF pass coverage unit). What does that result in? Lots of short passes, which is the bread and butter of Ekeler’s game.
The first three games of the year for Ekeler? 9 catches for 120 receiving yards. And that was with Brian Robinson in the lineup. I’m not saying Ekeler’s going to get a bellcow workload – but there should be more opportunities for OC Kingsbury to scheme up more screens/dumpoffs for his new main man in the backfield. Lock it up.
Game Six: Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: Trevor Lawrence Over 233.5 Passing Yards (-110) 1.0u via Coolbet
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- IND DT DeForest Buckner (IR)
- IND C Ryan Kelly (Doubtful)
- IND OT Braden Smith (Questionable)
- IND CB Kenny Moore (Out)
- IND DE Kwity Paye (Out)
- IND RB Jonathan Taylor (Out)
- IND QB Anthony Richardson (Doubtful)
- JAX TE Evan Engram (Questionable)
- JAX OLB Josh Ines-Allen (Questionable)
- JAX S Darnell Savage (Questionable)
- JAX LB Devin Lloyd (Questionable)
This is the week folks – TLaw is getting back on track against this ravaged IND defence. Let’s get into the numbers to see why.
This IND defence gives up YARDAGE to opposing QBs. You had last week against PIT QB Justin Fields, where he put up 312 pass yards (averaging 207 pass yards per game). The week before, it was CHI QB Caleb Williams putting up 363 pass yards (averaging 197 pass yards per game). You’re seeing the trend. Even if the IND defence has held up well in the red zone and through takeaways – the yardage will absolutely flow.
Then – take into consideration how this Colts offence will truck through the JAX D with Joe Flacco likely starting this game. The ELITE Flacco operates this offence so well with what we saw from him last week, and this Jags secondary is anything but good (27th PFF graded pass coverage unit). The points will be coming hot and heavy in this one – which is good news for Lawrence and this JAX pass game. On top of that, the IND rush defence is coming off two high PFF grades for their rush defence against CHI and PIT. It all leads to passing volume.
While Lawrence has had his struggles this year – this line is pretty minimal, and JAX has relative health on their side with two good WR’s in BTJ and Kirk. This is the get-right game of the week – and it all starts with Lawrence.
Pick: Michael Pittman Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.0u via Coolbet
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- IND DT DeForest Buckner (IR)
- IND C Ryan Kelly (Doubtful)
- IND OT Braden Smith (Questionable)
- IND CB Kenny Moore (Out)
- IND DE Kwity Paye (Out)
- IND RB Jonathan Taylor (Out)
- IND QB Anthony Richardson (Doubtful)
- JAX TE Evan Engram (Questionable)
- JAX OLB Josh Ines-Allen (Questionable)
- JAX S Darnell Savage (Questionable)
- JAX LB Devin Lloyd (Questionable)
Pittman is back baby – and he has a great matchup in this one going against Ronald Darby, outside CB for JAX. Darby’s allowed the most receiving yards on the team (19 catches allowed for 297 receiving yards – almost double the next worst DB on JAX). If Joe Flacco is at the helm as I’m expecting – Mike (the primary outside WR for IND) is a shoe-in for this line after exploding for 113 receiving yards last week in a worse matchup (PIT’s worst DB has only allowed 120 receiving yards this year).
Honestly – with a competent QB, you see how effective Pittman can be. Not much else has to be said – with ARich at the helm, you can’t trust the over; with Flacco at the helm, you take the over.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with more NFL picks. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
NFL Week Five Sunday Best Bets – Morning Slate
Game One: New York Jets vs Minnesota Vikings (London)
Pick: Aaron Rodgers Over 32.5 Pass Attempts (-115) 1.0u via Bet365
Pick: Garrett Wilson Over 4.5 Receptions (-128) 1.0u via Betano
Game Two: Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans
Pick: James Cook Over 80.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115) 1.0u via NorthStar
Pick: Stefon Diggs Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (+100) 1.0u via Bet365*
Game Three: Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Derrick Henry Over 7.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.0u via Bet365
Pick: Zay Flowers Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.0u via Coolbet
Game Four: Chicago Bears vs Carolina Panthers
Pick: Chuba Hubbard Over 79.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115) 1.0u via NorthStar
Pick: Caleb Williams Over 20.5 Pass Completions + Under 216.5 Pass Yards (+282) 0.5u via Coolbet
Game Five: Cleveland Browns vs Washington Commanders
Pick: Amari Cooper Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-109) 1.0u via Betano
Pick: Austin Ekeler Over ?? Receiving Yards (-110) 1.0u via ??*
Game Six: Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: Trevor Lawrence Over 233.5 Passing Yards (-110) 1.0u via Coolbet
Pick: Michael Pittman Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.0u via Coolbet