Another NFL Sunday – and another banger of a week for us in the Plus Money betting realm. It was 13-5 on Player Props for our full board on Sunday – and it was more than exciting, with all picks being Overs. The full recap is below – and with more than $2,700 profit on Player Props this season (if you’re a $100 unit bettor as I am), we’re feeling pretty good:
As I had posted on X previously – we have joined the MoneylineGo team (https://moneylinego.com/experts/PlusMoneyJ) and will now be offering NFL full slate analysis for a very small subscription fee ($20 per month) on that site. We will still be sharing a free preview (all TNF and MNF plays) here on our site, and on Moneyline – but full analysis for my 20+ player props every week will be subscription only.
Without further ado – let’s get to the analysis.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
*All data from PFF.com premium subscription.
2024 NFL Week Eleven: Thursday Night Best Bets – Top Player Props for Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: Saquon Barkley Over 93.5 Rushing Yards (-112) 1.12u via NorthStar
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- PHI OT Jordan Mailata (possibly returning from IR, FP all week)
- PHI TE Dallas Goedert (healthy, LP on Tues)
- PHI WR Devonta Smith (healthy, LP on Tues)
- WAS DT Jonathan Allen (IR)
- WAS CB Marshon Lattimore (Out)
The return of Pro Bowl LT Jordan Mailata would make this the nuclear-pick of the night – as the PHI run game was even better earlier this year (with him in) than it has been lately (with him sidelined). However, he only has “a chance to play”, as he stated earlier this week. Nonetheless, I’m still confident in this play with backup LT Fred Johnson in the lineup. Why is that?
Because Saquon is a fucking animal – and he feasts in almost any matchup. The game last week vs Dallas – was a bit of an apparition, as Saquon got banged up, the Eagles got up big, and snaps were ceded to Will Shipley and Kenneth Gainwell (the first time this year Barkley didn’t have 80%+ of opportunities in this backfield). So while Saquon only came away with 66 rushing yards in a very good matchup vs DAL – the Eagles RBs combined for over 130 rushing yards, showing how well this team runs as a unit.
The three games before that (all games with Mailata Out) – Saquon had 159 rush yards, 108 rush yards, and 176 rush yards. Those were matchups where the defences all allowed over 90 yards rushing per game (on average) to opposing RBs. Now – Barkley has an even tastier matchup with the Commanders on the docket.
For a team that wants to be a contender for years to come – there are a couple of key holes that this WAS defence has to fill. While their rush defence was struggling even earlier in the year, it’s only gotten worse with Pro Bowl DT Jonathan Allen on the IR.
The Commanders are letting up the 6th most rush yards per game to opposing RBs (116), and they continue to give up 85+ rush yards to every RB room they face this year. No defence in the NFL has been that bad on a consistent basis against the run – and the Steelers RB duo of Warren and Harris just tore this D up last week with 133 rush yards combined.
Saquon wasn’t on the injury report at all this week – giving me full confidence that he will once again be the bellcow-back in this backfield. With that much volume, and the clear weakness of this WAS defence, it would be hard for Saquon to fail. Hit it.
Pick: AJ Brown Over 77.5 Receiving Yards (-120) 1.20u via BetVictor
Pick: AJ Brown Over 28.5 Yards Longest Reception (-107) 1.07u via Pinnacle
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- PHI OT Jordan Mailata (possibly returning from IR, FP all week)
- PHI TE Dallas Goedert (healthy, LP on Tues)
- PHI WR Devonta Smith (healthy, LP on Tues)
- WAS DT Jonathan Allen (IR)
- WAS CB Marshon Lattimore (Out)
I thought about going for some Commanders offensive Player Props in this game – but this Eagles defence (specifically the secondary) has really turned things around as of late with their two Rookie CBs (Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper Dejean) showing out. There are very few ways to attack this Eagles defence – especially with WAS RB Brian Robinson banged up and Rookie Phenom Jayden Daniels’ rush attempts/game going down after his rib injury (don’t get me wrong, this stud could still rip off a 50 yard run – it’s just less likely to happen than it was earlier in the season):
So – we go back to player props for PHI studs. And no WR in this League is more of a specimen than the one-and-only AJ Brown (well, except maybe DK).
AJ came back last week after leaving the previous game due to a knee injury – and he goes for a ho-hum 109 receiving yards on 5 receptions (with a long reception of 44 yards). In every full game AJ has played this year – he’s been over 84 receiving yards – with his long receptions in each game as follows: 67, 40, 41, 29, and 44 yards. That’s absurd production – and you’d have to be blind by now not to realize the gameplan for this PHI offence – smashmouth run game with an explosive pass game.
And the funny thing – even though WAS is terrible when it comes to rush defence – they aren’t very good at keeping WRs covered either. Their stats (on paper) have improved in this area – but that’s primarily due to going up against bad WR rooms/bad passing attacks (NYG, CHI, and CAR). The game before those three matchups? Over 200 yards receiving given up to the Ravens WRs. Last game out vs PIT? 141 receiving yards, all given up on shot-plays for WRs George Pickens and Mike Williams.
If you think about it – PIT and PHI run very similar offences – so I’m expecting some nice shot plays for AJ in this one. I would’ve been in on Devonta Smith too – but his hamstring injury has me a little more tentative, as it seemed to affect him (to an extent) last game out where he had one of his worst showings of the season (and it’s a short week). AJ is the play in this one – hammer both lines.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with more NFL picks. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
2024 NFL Week Eleven: Thursday Night Best Bets – Top Player Props for Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: Saquon Barkley Over 93.5 Rushing Yards (-112) 1.12u via NorthStar
Pick: AJ Brown Over 77.5 Receiving Yards (-120) 1.20u via BetVictor
Pick: AJ Brown Over 28.5 Yards Longest Reception (-107) 1.07u via Pinnacle