Week 11 is here – and this NFL season has to slow the hell down. I swear, the season just started last week! But here we stand, with a 115-86 record on Player Props season-long and $2,700 profit (if you’re a $100 unit bettor as I am). With this kind of success and excitement – it can be easy to get out over our ski’s with big bets to take advantage of our growing bankroll. My advice – don’t do it. The NFL can be a fickle mistress – and it’s best to stick with the method that got us here: 1 to 1.5 unit bets spread across a board of stellar reads. Proof is in the pudding:
As I had posted on X previously – we have joined the MoneylineGo team (https://moneylinego.com/experts/PlusMoneyJ) and will now be offering NFL full slate analysis for a very small subscription fee ($20 per month) on that site. We will still be sharing a free preview (all TNF and MNF plays) here on our site, and on Moneyline – but full analysis for my 20+ player props every Sunday will be subscription only.
Enough of that shameless self-promoting – let’s get to the analysis.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
*All data from PFF.com premium subscription.
2024 NFL Week Eleven: Sunday Best Bets – Top Player Props for Every Early Game
Game One: Minnesota Vikings vs Tennessee Titans
Pick: Sam Darnold Over 11.5 Rushing Yards (-110) 1.1u via Coolbet
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- MIN QB Sam Darnold (hand, cleared to play early in the week)
- TEN CB La’Jarius Snead (Out)
- TEN S Quandre Diggs (IR)
- TEN CB Chidobie Awuzie (IR)
The Titans D is a tricky one – as they’re an amazing defence when it comes to yardage allowed this season (1st in pass yards allowed and 12th in rush yards allowed), but not when it comes to scoring defence (9th highest PPG allowed). It’s a decent defence, don’t get me wrong – but there’s still a lot to be had against this unit.
One of the susceptible parts of this defence – preventing QBs (with even an ounce of athleticism) from scrambling. Let’s go through their season so far to see how mobile QBs have done against the TEN D:
- Week 1: 15 rush yards allowed to Caleb Williams (decent scrambler, but it was his first NFL game)
- Week 2: 1 rush yard allowed to Aaron Rodgers (no duh)
- Week 3: 73 rush yards allowed to Malik Willis (mobile QB)
- Week 4: 40 rush yards allowed to Tyler Huntley (mobile QB)
- Week 6 (Week 5 bye): 1 rush yard allowed to Joe Flacco (cement boots)
- Week 7: 1 rush yard allowed to Josh Allen (weird game where Allen could have anything he wanted through the air with 320+ passing yards – no need to run)
- Week 8: 1 rush yard allowed to Jared Goff (makes sense)
- Week 9: 95 rush yards allowed to Drake Maye (similar in my mind to Darnold)
- Week 10: 32 rush yards allowed to Justin Herbert (similar in my mind to Darnold)
The two key matchups are those last two in bold – as Darnold (148 rush yards this season) has just as much athleticism as Justin Herbert (117 rush yards this season), and he isn’t far off from Drake Maye (more rush yards per game for Maye, but mostly because he’s forced to run with the lack of offensive weapons on NE).
Those two weeks of QB rushing production came with TENs two starting CBs Out (Awuzie and Snead) – which makes me think it might be a change in TEN scheme/play-calling to account more for pass-coverage. Well – those two CBs are Out in this one as well, and with Darnold nursing a hand injury earlier in the week, what do you think he prefers? Slinging the ball 40 times against a tough pass defence unit? Or taking the rock himself a couple times to alleviate the pressure he’ll be facing?
My bet is he’ll take the easiest route to success – which means more scrambling for a guy that has sneaky athleticism (aka – a white guy with athleticism).
He’s been above 14 rush yards in 5 of 9 games this year – not hard to see him breaching that mark again this week. Let’s roll.
Pick: Cam Akers Over (??) Rushing Yards (-110) 1.0u via ??*
*I’d take this line wherever it ends up, as soon as they drop it
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- MIN QB Sam Darnold (hand, cleared to play early in the week)
- TEN CB La’Jarius Snead (Out)
- TEN S Quandre Diggs (IR)
- TEN CB Chidobie Awuzie (IR)
Aaron Jones, banged up again, coming off a rib injury last week? Say it ain’t so. I’m sure the Vikes don’t love the fact that they’re stud RB has continuous durability issues (though it shouldn’t be a surprise with his history and usage). However – I am sure that they love their foresight in trading for Cam Akers right before the deadline to supplement this RB room (as Ty Chandler had his struggles earlier in the season).
So what better time to roll out Akers than a game the Vikings should win handily, while Jones limits re-injury, against a defence that just doesn’t give up much through the air? It was clear last week (as well as the week before) that Akers took over the #2 job in this backfield (Akers out-touched and out-snapped Chandler in each game). And Cam didn’t look half-bad on the ground either, churning out 38 rush yards last week and 46 rush yards on only 6 carries the week before.
And you know how I was waxing poetic about this TEN D preventing opposing rush yards? Well – it’s true, but secondary RBs have had their day against this D on more than one occasion.
Last week, they gave up 50+ rush yards to 2nd RB on LAC, Gus Edwards. In Week 7, 40+ rush yards allowed to 2nd RB on BUF, Ray Davis. The week before that? 50+ rush yards allowed to 2nd RB on IND, Tyler Goodsen. It’s a weird trend – but it kind of makes sense if you connect the dots: teams don’t really fear this TEN squad, so they’re more willing to split workloads in the backfield. Take advantage of it in this one – regardless of if Aaron Jones comes in with an injury designation.
Game Two: Jacksonville Jaguars vs Detroit Lions
Pick: David Montgomery Over 71.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-114) 1.14u via NorthStar
Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 91.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-111) 1.11u via Northstar
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- JAX QB Trevor Lawrence (Out)
- JAX RB Tank Bigsby (Out)
- DET TE Sam LaPorta (Out)
You guys all saw how impressive JAX backup QB Mac Jones was out there last week, right? Well – you’d have to be blind and deaf to think that, as his first drive TD was the only bright-spot in a soiled pair of underwear that was last week’s game. This Jags offence is of minimal concern to a Detroit defence that remains stellar (even without Aidan Hutchinson bringing the heat off the edge).
That’s just one part of the equation though. A friendly game-script never hurts RB duos in smash-spots. But what about the Jags’ defence? Aren’t they an absolute sieve through the air (3rd most pass yards allowed per game at 271)? Shouldn’t Goff just rip passes all over the field the whole game? Lee Corso – hit us with a not so fast.
The Jags secondary has been banged up all year – and they were missing their top corner, Tyson Campbell, up until Week 7. Let’s assume it took a week for the secondary unit to gel after his return. Here are opposing pass-game production since Week 8
- Week 8 vs GB and Jordan Love: 252 pass yards allowed
- Week 9 vs PHI and Jalen Hurts: 230 pass yards allowed
- Week 10 vs MIN and Sam Darnold: 241 pass yards allowed (and 3 INTs to boot)
It’s definitely not an elite coverage unit in Jacksonville – but it’s better, and DET should be more inclined to go run-heavy with Goff coming off 5 picks last time out.
Then – you go to RB production against this Jags’ D. RB duos are averaging 140+ yards from scrimmage vs the Jags D season-long, and this defence has given up 140+ rush yards to opposing RBs the last three weeks (148 to Packers RBs in Week 8, 168 to Eagles RBs in Week 9, and 144 to Vikings RBs in Week 10). And it’s not like the gamescripts were titled to the RBs in any one of those games – they were all one-score matchups.
Which brings us to the Lions RB duo. In a game where they should have a much better gamescript than those teams – I expect Sonic & Knuckles (they’re self-proclaimed nickname – very cute) to run roughshod all over this JAX D. Monty has 70+ scrimmage yards in 7 of 9 games thus far, and Gibbs has 95+ yards from scrimmage in 3 of his last 4.
Dial these two up ladies and gents.
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