Week 11 is through besides this Monday Night offering between a struggling Texans team and an even worse-off Dallas Cowboys squad. As for us – we continue to add to our bankroll with Sunday’s best bets – going 16-8 for +$720 profit (if you’re a $100 unit bettor), which leaves us at 131-94 for +$3,370 profit on the year. Not so bad for a guy just ID’ing mismatches and big-time spots:
As I had posted on X previously – we have joined the MoneylineGo team (https://moneylinego.com/experts/PlusMoneyJ) and will now be offering NFL full slate analysis for a very small subscription fee ($20 per month) on that site. We will still be sharing a free preview (all TNF and MNF plays) here on our site, and on Moneyline – but full analysis for my 20+ player props every Sunday will be subscription only.
Enough of that shameless self-promoting – let’s get to the analysis.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
*All data from PFF.com premium subscription.
2024 NFL Week Eleven: MNF Best Bets – Top Player Props for Houston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys
Pick: Jalen Tolbert Over 12.5 Yards Longest Reception (-115) 1.15u via Bet99
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- DAL WR Ceedee Lamb (true question to play, but recent news is he’s likely playing)
- DAL WR Brandin Cooks (IR)
- DAL QB Dak Prescott (IR)
- HOU DE Will Anderson (Out)
- HOU DT Fatusaki (Out)
- HOU CB Kamari Lassiter (Q, likely to play with LP Fri)
Here’s a little trick for everyone out there when it comes to Player Props – if a defence is Bottom 10 in yards allowed per reception to WRs (HOU is 10th with 13.41), and a WR has an average-depth-of-target (ADOT) over the longest reception line (Tolbert’s at a 13.3 yard ADOT this season, with a 14.2 yard ADOT last year), you almost always take it. The caveat – Dak being Out and Cooper Rush taking over as the QB for this DAL team.
Why I’m still taking this line regardless of that fact – is two-fold. First off, Ceedee Lamb being as banged up as he is definitely plays into this. Ceedee could still dominate targets in this passing offence (I expect that), but any of those extra snaps he has to take off to rest his ailing body – will go to Tolbert. Tolbert is the border-line 2nd option in this DAL pass-attack (he has more receiving yards on the year when compared to TE Jake Ferguson (367 vs 358)), and the only reason that’s close is because this DAL pass-game to WRs (regardless of the QB) has been anything but prolific.
Secondly – this DAL offence went up against a buzz-saw defence last week vs an Eagles defence that pretty much neutralized OROY Jayden Daniels this week. It’s no surprise Cooper Rush had such a bad day. But Rush is one of the better backup QBs in the League, especially with the experience he’s gained in this DAL offensive scheme.
When Rush had 5 starts in 2022 as the QB of this team – he put up 178.6 pass yards per game, while having three starts Over 215 pass yards. That isn’t amazing – but it sure is reliable for a backup QB. I don’t see Rush absolutely shitting the bed tonight – as Will Anderson being Out means this HOU pass-rush is average at best.
What that should turn into – more intermediate passes for Rush, which gives Tolbert a lot of opportunity to hit this longest reception. Lock it in.
Pick: Nico Collins Over 25.5 Yards Longest Reception (-120) 1.20u via Bet99
Pick: Tank Dell Over 21.5 Yards Longest Reception (-108) 1.08u via NorthStar
Key Injuries Impacting Picks
- DAL CB Da’Ron Bland (Out)
- DAL CB Jourdan Lewis (Out)
- HOU WR Stefon Diggs (IR)
First off – this is the first week DAL starting CB Jourdan Lewis is missing this year. He’s got a 77.2 PFF coverage grade on the season (best of the DAL secondary) and plays primarily in the slot (most coverage snaps there of all Cowboys DBs). Point one for this pick – Tank Dell has a higher slot snap percentage than Collins (25% vs 17% season-long), and Dell should get more work here with Diggs (the HOU leader in slot snaps) done for the season.
Secondly – Da’Ron Bland is Out yet again for this one (he’s missed the whole year thus far). You may not understand the excellence of Bland – but last year, he had one of the highest PFF coverage grades in the NFL (86.4). That’s elite coverage – and the results have shown that this secondary is definitely missing Bland.
Yes – the Cowboys still have Pro Bowl CB Trevon Diggs playing in this one. However, Diggs is more of a feast-or-famine CB, taking his chances for big-time turnovers while allowing a high yards per reception (he allowed 13 yards per reception last year, higher than average).
Meanwhile – Nico is finally making his return from a hamstring injury – and there’s no doubt what he’s going to do: stretch the field with amazing speed and a big frame. Out of Nico’s 5 games played this year, here are his long receptions: 55, 28, 34, 26, and 67. That’s good, right? It’s tremendous, and with Tank being Over 19 yards on his longest reception 5 of 9 times this year: both lines are in play.
Further – we can see what the DAL secondary injuries have meant for this defence in recent weeks: in their last four games, they’re allowing 15.05 yards per reception to WRs (that would be good for 2nd worst in the NFL season-long). They’re obviously susceptible to chunk plays – so take the two Texans who are most prone to popping off chunk plays.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with more NFL picks. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
2024 NFL Week Eleven: MNF Best Bets – Top Player Props for Houston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys
Pick: Jalen Tolbert Over 12.5 Yards Longest Reception (-115) 1.15u via Bet99
Pick: Nico Collins Over 25.5 Yards Longest Reception (-120) 1.20u via Bet99
Pick: Tank Dell Over 21.5 Yards Longest Reception (-108) 1.08u via NorthStar