Another NFL Sunday in the books through Week 7 – and I can’t get enough NFL Football. The games this week may have lacked entertainment at times (this weeks’ Primetime offerings and Afternoon games were pretty atrocious), but we kept up the excitement with a couple player props riding in every game. Last week, we put in the work to ID mismatches and scheme-advantages – but our picks didn’t come through as we hoped. Still had a winning record at 11-10 on Player Props – but we had a couple tough breaks with injury and guys selling out. That leaves us with a lot of excitement and projected upside coming into this week – with over $500 profit in the month of October:
Now – we have a TNF matchup between teams that may be more similar than their records suggest. Both teams blitz over 30% of the time (a top 10 rate in the NFL), both team are top 5 in QB hurry %, both teams are in the bottom 15 in rush yards per game, and both teams have a premier WR (don’t get in a tizzy, I agree J Jeff is better than Kupp at this point) with a pocket passer QB. The only difference? The Rams are 2-4 and at serious risk of missing the Playoffs, while the Vikes are 5-1 and are likely locks for a Divisional Round berth. Why? A combination of injuries and inexperience on the defensive side of the ball for the Rams. Tonight? They might surprise you, as things are looking up for this Rams team the further we get into the season.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
*All data from PFF.com premium subscription.
NFL Week Eight: TNF Best Bets – Top Player Props for Minnesota Vikings vs Los Angeles Rams
Pick: Aaron Jones Over 69.5 Rushing Yards (-110) 1.0u via Betway
Key Injuries impacting pick:
- LAR S John Johnson III (IR)
- LAR LB Troy Reeder (Out)
- LAR DT Braden Fiske (Questionable)
The Rams defence when it comes to stopping the run: Vomit-inducing. No word of a lie – watching these guys try to tackle and fill holes makes me think I’m watching an Army vs Navy game out there (no offence intended to those squads). Fact of the matter is – the Rams have the 4th most rush attempts against per game (32), and they’ve allowed the 3rd most rush yards per game (151.7). It’s not like this is all gamescript-induced due to teams blowing out the Rams – LA has been in every game except that ARI mess in Week 2.
The LAR just can’t get this portion of their defence right. When you filter out rush yards allowed to opposing RBs to this point in the season – they still rank 5th worst at over 120 rush yards per game allowed to RBs.
Now, on top of all that, Rams LB Troy Reeder is Out for this one. He’s BY FAR the better run stopper when compared to the other starting LB in this core, Christian Rozeboom (61.7 PFF rush defence grade vs 49.4). Now, the Rams will have to insert a backup LB to an already shit rush defence unit to stop the one and only: Aaron Jones.
Jones is having a resurgent season of sorts after leaving GB, as he’s now averaging 82.8 rush yards/game in every game he’s completed to this point of the season. Why? Because the Vikes run such a good offence, with a good pass blocking / decent run blocking OLine, that constantly has the defence guessing with good pass-run splits. It’s not hard to see that the Vikes have a significant advantage on the ground in this one – and with the Rams projected to be behind in this game (2.5 point underdogs), the gamescript is also there for Jonesy.
Last point – no need to be afraid of Ty Chandler here. While AJ is a little nicked up with a hamstring injury, he had a full practice Wednesday, and Ty Chandler dropped all the way down to a 18% snap share vs the Lions last week (getting out-touched by Jones 17-2). Let’s ride Jones in this one – everyone kills the Rams on the ground.
Pick: Kyren Williams Over 2.5 Receptions (+125) 1.0u via Pinnacle
Pick: Kyren Williams Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (-109) 1.0u via Pinnacle
Key Injuries impacting pick:
- LAR G Jonah Williams (IR)
- LAR G Steve Avila (IR)
- LAR OT Joe Noteboom (IR)
- LAR WR Puka Nacus (IR, LP Wednesday, could play)
- LAR WR Jordan Whittington (Out)
- MIN LB Blake Cashman (Out)
I’m grouping these two together as they go hand-in-hand – I’m expecting a bounce back for Kyren here after a paltry 76 rush yards with 0 receptions last game out. Don’t get it twisted – Kyren does catch the ball, and this Rams offence can work wonders through the dump-off/screen game. In 3/6 games this year, he’s had 3+ receptions. Further, he’s had double-digit receiving yards in 3/6 games as well, with 27 receiving yards in two straight games Weeks 2 & 3. That just goes to show that in the right matchup – Kyren can take advantage through the receiving game. Now, the main reason we’re rocking this pick: the weakness of the Vikings D.
The run game? No bueno against this Vikes D that is top 5 in rush yards allowed to RBs (a mere 72 rush yards per game). The deep pass game? Not if you want your QB to survive, as MIN has the most QB hurries (34) and pressures (89) in the League. The only path to success – pass the ball to the short & intermediate areas of the field, with heavy utilization of RBs through the air. Don’t believe me? Check the stats.
For all the glorified praise this MIN D has received (some of it deserved, some not), they’re 2nd worst in the League in pass yards allowed per game (285). If we take it a step further – they give up this yardage primarily to the WRs (2nd most receiving yards and receptions allowed to WRs) and the RBs (11th most receiving yards and 8th most receptions allowed to RBs). I don’t think Puka will play, Whittington is Out, and I’ll get to Kupp in the next pick. That leaves Kyren in a smash-spot with filthy-low lines that are just asking to be bet. Let’s do it folks.
Pick: Cooper Kupp Over 6.5 Receptions (-125) 1.25u via BetVictor
Key Injuries impacting pick:
- LAR G Jonah Williams (IR)
- LAR G Steve Avila (IR)
- LAR OT Joe Noteboom (IR)
- LAR WR Puka Nacus (IR, LP Wednesday, could play)
- LAR WR Jordan Whittington (Out)
- MIN LB Blake Cashman (Out)
Final pick for the night – gotta cap things off with the returning Cooper Kupp – primarily due to the stats laid out above. With MIN allowing so many receptions to WRs, and the LAR expected to be behind in this game – it’s open season for Kupp.
You could ride this line all the way to Over 8.5 (depending on your degen status), but I like this standard line with the win set at 7 receptions. I know – Kupp may not be the most proficient at getting to this reception total (though it’s really hard to gather a reliable sample size with all of the time he’s missed in the last 2 years). The bottom line: the Rams shouldn’t be able to run at all on this Vikes D, and the middle of the field should be more open with PFF stud LB Blake Cashman missing another game. That’s prime Kupp feeding territory – so let the guy eat.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with more NFL picks. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
NFL Week Eight: TNF Best Bets – Top Player Props for Minnesota Vikings vs Los Angeles Rams
Pick: Aaron Jones Over 69.5 Rushing Yards (-110) 1.0u via Betway
Pick: Kyren Williams Over 2.5 Receptions (+125) 1.0u via Pinnacle
Pick: Kyren Williams Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (-109) 1.0u via Pinnacle
Pick: Cooper Kupp Over 6.5 Receptions (-125) 1.25u via BetVictor