Another NFL Sunday Special on deck – how does anyone get by in life without this beautiful game? We’ve been grinding away this season with over 180 player props logged to this point – the record: 93-88, in addition to 2 pushes. It’s not bad – but we’re feeling better about this week than most with some great spots in prime matchups:
Let’s get started with multiple player props from every game on the morning slate.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
*All data from PFF.com premium subscription.
NFL Week Eight: Sunday Slate Best Bets – Top Player Props for Every Morning Game
Game One: Green Bay Packers vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: Jordan Love Over 255.5 Passing Yards (-110) 1.0u via Coolbet
Has anyone been tracking J Love’s season to this point? Guy would likely be the front-runner for MVP if he’d played every game to this point – and he’s bringing back that GB Favre-magic while landing himself Top 3 in both TD passes and Interceptions. If nothing else, Love is one of the most exciting QBs in the League.
Love is also 2nd place in the NFL in pass yards per game (270.2), as we’ve seen this GB offence lean more on the pass game than the run due to limited success from their OLine. For as good as the offence is as a whole, their PFF run block grade ranks 28th in the NFL – and Josh Jacobs has yet to surpass 76 yards rushing since Week 2 vs the lowly Colts. Meanwhile, this Jacksonville defence has given up minimal yardage on the ground to this point in the season (6th fewest rush yards allowed per game at 102). Why is that?
A part of it is personnel. The Jags rush defence ranks 11th in PFF grading, led by stud LB Devin Lloyd (84.5 PFF rush defence grade – elite). The other reason teams don’t run the ball well against JAX? Because they don’t have to. They can take advantage of the Jags through the air instead, where JAX has given up the 2nd most pass yards per game through 7 weeks (285). That’s a juicy matchup for Love on paper.
In terms of gamescript – the Jags offence has started to look better, making it seemingly plausible that this game stays close. Even if GB gets up early in this one – the only way they will likely be able to move the ball on offence (with any efficiency) is through the air. Lock in Love – averaging 270 pass yards on a D giving up 285 pass yards per game.
Pick: Travis Etienne Over ?? Receiving Yards (-110) 1.0u via ??*
*Etienne appears to be a longshot to play. If he is in, I like his receiving line at any number. If not – load up D’Earnest Johnson Over Receiving Yards, as he’s the primary pass-catching RB if Etienne is Out.
Might be an interesting choice here with Tank Bigsby seemingly taking the backfield from Etienne – but if this guy’s healthy, that only gives him more opportunity for pass-catching out of the backfield against a defence that doesn’t have many other vulnerabilities.
The last game where Tank and Etienne were active? Against Indy in Week 5. In that game: Etienne had 7 targets and 6 receptions for over 40 receiving yards – and Tank had 7 rush attempts (leading the team). That was a little bit of a weird one with the JAX RB committee filling snaps due to injury in the game – but what I gather from it is this: JAX appears to be filtering Etienne into more of a pass-catching role with Tank handling the rushing work. And as I said – this GB defence doesn’t give up much other than receiving yards to RBs.
Passing yards allowed per game? 15th in the NFL. Rush yards allowed per game? 16th in the NFL. Pass yards allowed to WRs? Top 10 fewest in the NFL. Pass yards allowed to TEs? Well, we’ll get to that, as that’s addressed in the next pick.
All the while – they’re Bottom 10 in receiving yards allowed to RBs per game (giving up 40 yards per game). The targets for Etienne so far? 23. Tank Bigsby’s targets? 2. Nuff said.
Pick: Evan Engram Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-114) 1.0u via Pinnacle
Perfect bounce back spot for Engram here after putting up a bit of a stinker in London last week. That stat I talked about above – regarding how many receiving yards GB gives up to opposing offences? Yeah, about that.
GB has given up the 7th most receiving yards per game to TEs to this point in the season. And it’s not exactly like they’ve faced elite TE competition to this point. I mean, the Rams and Titans TEs each put up 65+ receiving yards on GB. Chig Okonkwo and Colby Parkinson? That’s absurd, as it seems like TEs eat in any matchup against this GB defence.
Gamescript is the same as it is for Etienne – JAX is throwing the ball in this one with GB projected to be the superior team – so let these guys cook. I wouldn’t shoot my shot on any WR for JAX this week – even with Brian Thomas Jr. looking like the stud I knew he’d be.
Game Two: Arizona Cardinals vs Miami Dolphins
Pick: Tyreek Hill Over 27.5 Yards Longest Reception (-108) 1.0u via Pinnacle
Pick: Jaylen Waddle Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.0u via Bet365
Everybody and the mother is going to be on the Tyreek Hill Over receiving yards player prop this week. And fair enough – this is a stellar matchup for MIA WRs against an ARI secondary that’s giving up the 7th most yards to WRs per game (161). However – I think Vegas has that line projected too high (line is 82.5 yards), and with Tyreek as likely as anyone on Earth to break off a long one, I’m going with his over longest reception. Tua’s back everyone, rejoice!
It’s not like ARI isn’t giving up the deep ball at a high rate (13th in average yards per reception allowed, and all ARI starting CBs are giving up more than 10 yards per reception). What else needs to be said? If you see Tyreek getting through this game without a long reception after multiple weeks down-bad with poor QB play? I don’t know what to tell you.
As for the Waddler – I hardly see any love going around for his props. Remember when he had over 100 yards receiving in his only full game with Tua this year? Yeah, me neither. But he did, and with Tua back in and this matchup, there couldn’t be a better bounce back spot. We’ve been waiting for the Dolphins offence for some time – I don’t think they let us down in this spot.
Pick: James Conner Over 66.5 Rushing Yards (-111) 1.0u via Sports Interaction
I’m not saying MIA is exactly vulnerable on the ground (though they have given up the 8th most rush yards to opposing RBs so far) – it’s just that their pass defence remains elite. Yes, they have faced the 2nd easiest strength-of-schedule to this point according to PFF, but the stats speak for themselves:
- Pass yards allowed per game: 1st at a mere 164 per game
- Rush yards allowed to QBs: 7th at a mere 12 per game
- Receiving yards allowed to WRs: 4th at a mere 115 per game
- Receiving yards allowed to TE: 4th at a mere 29 per game
Do you trust any of the pass-catchers on ARI after seeing that? I don’t, but with James Conner’s 72 rush yards per game – and coming off a 100+ rush yard performance last time out against a tough LAC defence – I sure trust him.
There’s nothing else that has to be said – Conner is getting all the work, he’s primed for a good day in the matchup, and he’s got a healthy yards-per-carry on the season for the second year in a row. Let’s go.
Game Three: Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns
Pick: Lamar Jackson Over 47.5 Rushing Yards (-110) 1.0u via Bet365
Cleveland’s rush defence and pass-rush remain elite (Top 5 in PFF grading for both categories). Should that really surprise you with how great this defence was last year? No, the real glaring stat is that despite this success in other areas, they’re giving up massive production to QBs – mostly on the ground. While CLE still ranks 10th best in pass yards allowed per game (right around 205) – they give up the 10th most rush yards per game to opposing QBs (right around 25). This includes the likes of Trevor Larence (45 yards), Jalen Hurts (33 yards), and Jayden Daniel (84 yards). If I had to compare Lamar to anyone on that list – it’s Daniels. And I expect him to have a similar day in this one.
Though Lamar has been lighting it up in the pass game as of late, he’s still averaging 6.5 yards per carry and has 40+ rush yards in every game this season. There’s a reason this guy is likely to win another MVP this year. Further, with the increased blitz rate in Cleveland (3rd in the league), there should be plenty of man coverage for Lamar to take advantage of on scrambles. Probably the easiest read in this game – let’s go.
Pick: Nelson Agholor Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-104) 1.0u via Pinnacle
Well, you remember when I said Cleveland is the 10th best team in pass yards allowed per game? The funny thing about that is, the Browns are Bottom 15 in receiving yards allowed to WRs – and with Zay coming off a down game while being banged up coming into this one, and Bateman coming off multiple good performances (too obvious), we’re going with the other WR of the bunch to produce.
Agholor is still 3rd in snaps (47%) and targets (16) among WRs in this locker room – and I’d expect him to see more work with Zay nursing his injury. The line is so minimal – and with a 16.8 yards-per-reception rate this year, I’m expecting at least a couple from Agholor to hit this line.
It would legitimately take 2 receptions for Nelson to hit this line, and with DHen likely to struggle on the ground (at least in the early stages of the game vs this Top 10 rush defence), the opps will be there. Let’s get it.
Pick: David Njoku Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-105) 1.0u via 3ET
It’s the same story with different characters when it comes to this Ravens defence – great run-stuffing, great pass-rush (Top 10 in both when it comes to PFF grading) – very mediocre pass coverage. Ravens rank as the worst pass defence in the League when it comes to pass yards allowed per game – and with Jameis cooking at QB, this spot couldn’t be better for the Njokester.
Yes – that does mean that the Browns should burn this Ravens defence through the WRs – as BAL is also giving up the 3rd most WR receiving yards of all teams in the NFL (179). However – are you going to trust Jameis and a collection of WR rejects and rookies to hit their lines in this one?
Not me – I’m just going with the most prolific pass-catcher in this offence with a low average-depth-of-target (ADOT) guaranteeing the ball gets to him – regardless of the pressure.
Though most of Njoku’s production last week was with QB Deshaun Watson (10 total receptions for 75+ receiving yards), there’s no indication that the offence will change with Jameis in. Couple that with the play-calling duties being shifted to Ken Dorsey (guy loved the pass-attack in BUF as the play-caller for Josh Allen) – I’m expecting more value, with more upside. Let’s go Njokes – you’re primed for a big game against a defence giving up the second-most receiving yards per game to TEs on the year (70+ receiving yards per game).
Game Four: Tennessee Titans vs Detroit Lions
Pick: Tim Patrick Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.0u via Bet365
The Tennessee defence has been elite through the last 3 weeks when it comes to stopping the run (3 straight games with a PFF grade of 70+ in rush defence – and 6th best in the League when it comes to rush yards allowed per game). TEN Rookie DT T’vondre Sweat and Pro Bowl DT Jeffrey Simmons are holding up their end of the bargain on this defence. However – the secondary has taken a massive hit – where 2nd string CB Chidobie Awuzie remains on the IR, and top CB La’Jarius Snead has been ruled Out.
DT Sweat may miss this game – but with the injuries to TEN’s secondary – the clear play is WR yards for the Lions with a clear advantage in the pass game. I mean, the TEN defence is 5th in the League in WR receiving yards allowed per game (124), but the Bills WRs put up 250+ receiving yards last week with Awuzie and Snead Out (and the Bills offence has been anything but prolific through the air to this point).
If you want to take Amon-Ra in a game where his line is set to the max and he’s coming off a massive performance – be my guest. I’m more interested in Timmay here.
Patrick has been the unsung WR3 hero for this DET team through 7 games – and Jameson Williams continues his streak of irresponsible behaviour with the suspension for performance enhancing substances. Insert – Tim Patrick, with his 50+ receiving yards in 2 of the last 3 games (that was with Williams in, and only 53% of snaps max). Lock it in.
Pick: Calvin Ridley Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-111) 1.0u via 3ET
Yup – we’re hitting this one again after Ridley bailed us out last week with his lateral at the end of the second half leading to 40+ receiving yards. Well – with Hopkins gone and a Top 5 rush defence on deck – I’m expecting more work for the guy.
I said the same thing last week thinking Levis was going to be in at QB – and even with the shitty Mason Rudolph leading the offence, Ridley had action. With Levis’ arm-talent and the projection that he’ll play this week – there is so much more upside for deep-shots to the Riddler. The QB situation is bad in Tennessee – doesn’t mean there’s no production to be had here.
On top of all that, the Lions defence ranks worst in the League in receiving yards allowed to WRs per game (213). With Aidan Hurchinson Out – the pass rush should be negated to a large extent (like it was last week vs the Vikes). You know what that means: more time for Ridley’s routes to develop, leading to more deep-shot opps. Things can’t get much worse for Ridley – and his line suggests as much. Now – it’s time for a resurgence.
Game Five: Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans
Pick: CJ Stroud Over 236.5 Passing Yards (-110) 1.0u via Coolbet
I’m telling you right now – Stroud feasts in good matchups at home, and shits the bed on the road against tough defences:
There’s enough of a sample size there to support the assumption that Stroud is about to go off against the Colts – even with Nico Collins still on the shelf.
Sure – you can keep betting on Stroud’s downfall after his 86 passing yard performance last week. However – you know that Stroud will have commendable stats by season’s end. So, coming off that performance, with an average of 237 passing yards per game to this point – you think Stroud is going to play it conservative?
In addition to that, the Colts are allowing the 8th most pass yards per game – and the defence remains banged up with DeForest Buckner likely missing the game and Grover Stewart (2nd string DT) missing Friday’s practice due to undisclosed reasons.
Mixon will get his on the ground (Colts are giving up the 3rd most rush yards per game to RBs), but I don’t trust his volume in this game with my projection that the Colts keep this game close. That means full steam ahead for Stroud – let’s hit it.
Pick: Dalton Schultz Over 3.5 Receptions (+104) 1.0u via Pinnacle
Uh oh spaghetti-o – I’ll take the rarely used TE to get going in this matchup.
For one – the Colts are allowing over 6 receptions per game to opposing TEs so far (4th most in the League) – and Schultzy’s been getting more work with Collins Out through the last 3 weeks:
- First 4 weeks: 82 receiving yards on 10 receptions
- 3 weeks with Nico Out: 89 receiving yards on 9 receptions
What else needs to be said? Sure, I think Diggs and Dell will eat in this one, but the production is too unreliable for how high their lines are set. This way – we take a minimal line, with big upside, in a matchup where Stroud should throw for 250+ yards. Easy lock – rock on.
Pick: Alec Pierce Over 16.5 Yards Longest Reception (-115) 1.0u via Bet365
We all know the recipe by this point for the Colts – send Pierce deep and throw a jackpot-ball up to him.
The thing is: Pierce hasn’t been connecting on these deep shots like he did earlier in the season. Through the first 5 games, Pierce lit it up with 386 receiving yards at over 30 yards per reception. That yards-per-reception figure leads the League if you were wondering.
We saw a deep shot to Pierce last week – and he drew a pass interference penalty for 40+ yards. With ARich in again to start at QB – you should expect more of these long-shots. I don’t see a line on Ashton Dulin (the other deep threat), and Mike Pittman is one step away from a spot on the IR with his back injury. That means more of a lean on Pierce – and it doesn’t hurt that the Texans allow the 6th most yards per reception in the League.
Game Six: New York Jets vs New England Patriots
Pick: Breece Hall Over 74.5 Rushing Yards (-111) 1.0u via NorthStar
Breece may have lost his juice ladies and gentlemen. He had almost 1,000 rush yards last year on an inept offence with 4.5 yards-per-carry. The year before that in his rookie campaign – he was at 5.8 yards-per-carry with an OLine in the bottom 10 when it came to PFF run block grading.
This year – Hall is averaging 3.7 yards-per-carry with an average of 49 rush yards per game. That’s piss-poor – especially considering the OLine is in better shape than any other year Breece has been with the Jets.
HOWEVAH – this is Breece’s big spot, with the NE defence giving up the 4th most rush yards per game on the season (122). The last time Breece played NE in Week 3, he went for 54 rush yards on 16 rush attempts. Another piss-poor performance considering the matchup. Yet we all think that Breece is just going to go through the motions and have a similar game this time out? Not me.
You watched the London game last week, right? JAX ran 20+ straight run plays against NE – because they could. Mayo can call his defence “soft” all he wants – that shouldn’t make a difference when the whole team is seriously contemplating a mutiny. Breece will show out – truss.
Pick: Davante Adams Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-111) 1.0u via 3ET
The breakout game for Adams + Rodgers? Incoming. I’m not a huge fan of this duo (they both appear as whiners), but the production is there with this tandem racking up the 2nd most receiving TDs among QB-WR combos.
Sure – we saw JAX dominate NE on the ground last week with Bigsby going off. But don’t forget – Brian Thomas Jr. went for 89 receiving yards on 5 receptions last game out vs NE. The chances that Garrett Wilson gets more targets than Adams with another week of practice for Adams and that horrible drop leading to an INT last game?
Well – I believe the chances are minimal. That’s why we’re going with Adams in this one, as the guy is prone to putting up numbies in smash-spot match-ups. Just look at his game vs the Ravens in Week 2 w/ Minshew under Center.
This guy is still an elite WR – you just have to feed him. I think that’s coming in this game – always bet on talent.
Game Seven: Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Bijan Robinson Over 21.5 Receiving Yards (-107) 1.0u via Pinnacle
Pretty easy read here – Bucs are giving up the 3rd most receiving yards to RBs through the season (54), Bijan is averaging 29 receiving yards per game, and the stud RB just put up 40 yards through the air in his last game.
The disparity from a target standpoint is astounding in this RB room – Bijan’s 24 receptions to Allgeier’s 8. The gameplan for the Falcons is obviously built around Bijan in the passing game – and the Bucs are Top 15 in rush yards allowed to RBs with under 100 rushing per game.
End of the day – the Falcons went for 73 rush yards on 18 rush attempts the last time they played this TB team (in Week 5). Yes – the Bucs are depleted on offence, and they just got gashed on the ground by BAL. But you know how the NFL works – teams give and they take. That’s what will happen on the ground to ATL in this one – so take the alternate route with Bijan’s receiving.
Pick: Kyle Pitts Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.0u via Coolbet
I’ve already told you how I feel about the ATL run game in this one – so why not target another pass-catcher in a good matchup. TB gives up the 11th most receiving yards to TEs – and their strength-of-schedule on the TE front is meagre at best. Oh, right – TB is also giving up the 8th most yards-per-reception to TEs, largely due to Kelce and Goedert going for 75+ yards against this defence.
Sure, Pitts isn’t the most reliable pass-catcher in the world. But he had 1,000 yards receiving as a Rookie, and he’s been low-key good with Cousins at QB with 47 receiving yards per game. To add to how impressive that figure is – last time out against the Bucs (Week 5), Pitts had a goose-egg with 3 targets and 0 receiving yards. You think he’s going to do that again? Always bet on positive regression – it’s the easiest way to profit.
Pick: Rachaad White Over 3.5 Receptions (+115) 1.0u via NorthStar
Caught me red-handed – I’m getting greedy with the RB receptions on the Bucs side in this one. But the opportunity is there for these RBs with Godwin and Evans Out, coming off a big Cade Otten day where defences will surely gameplan some bracket coverage for him.
It may seem bullish to just take the workload from one game without Evans, but with Godwin playing the full game last week, this tandem of RBs combined for 9 catches on 9 targets for a clean 100% reception rate (6 receptions for Rachaad). This isn’t a new thing either – Bucky and Rachaad have combined for 36 receptions on 38 targets thus far this season.
Also – ATL is giving up the 12th most receptions per game to RBs through 7 weeks – and the Bucs RBs had 5 receptions their last time out vs this defence with a full compliment of pass-catchers on deck. These RBs should be much more active through the air in this one (especially when the Falcons only concede 92 rush yards per game to RBs) – I’d bet on it.
Game Seven: Philadelphia Eagles vs Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Grant Calcaterra Over 21.5 Receiving Yards (-111) 1.0u via 3ET
I wouldn’t blame you if you didn’t know this guy’s name until now – I didn’t until Goedert went Out of the lineup and made way for the backup TE. Fact of the matter is – Calcaterra got 71% of snaps last week – and came through with the only receiving yards Eagles TEs got in that one.
Now – Calcaterra goes from facing the 7th best team against TEs when it comes to receiving yards per game (NYG are at 35 per game) to the 6th worst team against TEs (CIN is at 56 given up per game). I don’t know about you – but I expect some heat from this Eagles pass offence after they had under 150 yards passing last game out.
It’s a matter of how you beat this Bengals defence – they’re middle-of-the-pack when it comes to pass yards allowed per game and WR receiving yards allowed per game – so why wouldn’t the Eagles go to their TE, along with the run game through Hurts – as I’ll explain in the next section.
Pick: Jalen Hurts Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-111) 1.0u via NorthStar
Tried this one last week and Hurts didn’t come through – I wasn’t wrong, I was just early.
It wasn’t a bad read (NYG give up the 4th most rush yards to opposing QBs), but at the end of the day, the Eagles offence just didn’t get going. I’m still betting on the QB that is Top 5 in rush yards per game among QBs and averages 36 rush yards per game (with consistency).
Now – Hurts gets a chance to bounce-back against a team that’s Top 5 in rush yards allowed to QBs (checks notes) ….. Oh, wait, CIN is giving up the most rush yards per game to opposing QBs at 37 yards per game. It’s a sick mismatch – mobile QB against a team that can’t contain scrambling (Daniel Jones went over 50 rush yards on this team for crying out loud). Lock it in.
Pick: Chase Brown Over 53.5 Rushing Yards (-111) 1.0u via 3ET
My last pick of the morning slate is a banger – if for no other reason than the fact that I have to highlight how Chase Brown has taken over this backfield from the disappointing Zach Moss. Add on the fact that PHI is Bottom 15 in rush yards allowed per game (giving up 100 rush yards per game). That’s a recipe for Chase Brown to eat – especially with Tee Higgins Out and the Eagles being Top 15 in pass yards allowed per game (at a mere 210 per game. Lock in Chase (not Ja’Marr tho) – you won’t regret it.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with more NFL picks. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.