We’ll keep the intro short here, as this is the second part of this article and we want to get straight into the picks. Part One lays things out pretty well, where we broke down the first six games of the Sunday slate – if you want to check that out before going on in this one, here ya go:
No need to wait – let’s get into the analysis.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
2024 NFL Regular Season: Week 1 Best Bets – Part 2
Game: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Atlanta Falcons
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers Team Under 19.5 Points (-125) 0.5u Bet365
Pick: Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (-110) 0.5u Bet365
Regardless of who’s starting at QB for the Steelers in this one – I’m expecting a pretty easy win for this Atlanta Falcons team to start the season.
The Steelers OLine is improved, but not in great shape to start the season. While PFF has them as a Top 10 unit in 2024, they’re missing their best piece in Isaac Seumalo in Week 1. They have a below average LT in Dan Moore starting over 1st Round Rookie T Fautanu, and there’s a Rookie making his first start at Center in Zach Frazier (albeit a pretty highly regarded Rookie). This OLine may end up solid at the end of the season, but I expect struggles early.
The OLine issues only become magnified when considering the offensive scheme new OC Arthur Smith will implement. A run-heavy scheme with high TE usage and routes over the middle. It’s going to be tough for Fields or Wilson to get throws off without pressure, and there will be a heavy reliance on RB Najee Harris to carry the load with Jaylen Warren coming off a hamstring injury. That already sounds like a Team Under – but now consider Atlanta’s revamped defence.
The Falcons were actually a decent defence last year – but everything will change this year with new Head Coach Raheem Morris bringing the Rams defensive scheme over from his time in LA. We saw last year that Morris can produce results with substandard CB’s (trust me, as a Rams fan, I can admit our CB’s were weak sauce). That’s because he gets the best out of his Safeties, and would you look at that: he’s now scheming up two of the best Safeties in the League, Jessie Bates and Justin Simmons. On top of that, Morris will be able to utilize newly-acquired Matt Judon from NE (it was just 2 years ago he had 15.5 sacks) and Grady Jarrett in the pass-rush. And the run defence for the Rams last year under Morris? Top 15 in opponents yards/rush and yards/game. If that’s the only path to victory and points for the Steelers, I’m pretty encouraged that this unit will meet the challenge and run the Steelers offence off the field. That’s a Team Under.
So, the Falcons are going to keep the Steelers Under that Team Total. If that’s the case, the spread at -3.5 is almost guaranteed. While the Steelers D is very potent, so are the Falcons on offence with a Top 10 OLine, good weapons with Pitts likely playing and London + Bijan, Kirk Cousins at QB (who looked great in Day 7 of camp – so I’m not worried about him post-achilles tear), and a new OC that’s going to implement a Rams-like offence with heavy motion and great run scheming. The Falcons may not go Over the Team Total – but they will cover this spread.
Game: Tennessee Titans vs Chicago Bears
Pick: Tennessee Titans Team Under 19.5 Points (-105) 0.5u Bet365
Pick: Chicago Bears -4.0 (-110) 0.5u Bet365
Pick: Under 44.5 Total Points (-110) 0.5u Bet365
We’re going Monsters of the Midway all day in this spot my friends – with an Under total mixed in. Let’s get into why.
Starting with Tennessee on offence. The OLine still has some work to do before we can consider this an average NFL unit up front. While PFF has them ranked 30th going into this year on the OLine, there is upside with this unit. Standout sophomore Skoronski will be a good starter at Guard, and they used a Top 10 pick in the Draft this year on Tackle JC Latham, one of the best prospects in the draft. Add to that the signing of FA Center Lloyd Cushenberry, who was pretty decent in his time with DEN. This line may experience some issues at the beginning of the season, but if they remain healthy, expect them to improve over the year.
With this early struggle at OLine considered, it may be tough for Will Levis to get the protection he needs to unleash his best weapon: the deep ball. I expect a few shots downfield, but the majority of this game should be played through the short passing game. New Head Coach Brian Callahan should introduce an offensive system similar to his time in Cincy with a heavy reliance on moving the ball through the air. That includes short passes to the RB’s with high frequency (Mixon had 52 catches last year (9th among RB’s) and Chase Brown had another 14 receptions). The Titans should find success doing this with Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears, two really good pass-catching RB’s. Add in Calvin Ridley on the outside, and this offence is set up in a good spot. I just don’t think they’ll have the juice early in the season – especially when it comes to this Bears Defence.
This is a Bears D that ranked 1st overall against the run last year. Couple that with 22 interceptions, tied for most in the League, and another year of continuity in Eberflus’ defence with almost the same personnel – this could be one of the top defences in the League this year. Jaylon Johnson is a bonafide CB1, Jaquon Brisker is one of the best young Safeties around, Edmunds and TJ Edwards form a formidable ILB duo, and Montez Sweat brings the pass-rush (he’s Questionable, but was a full participant in Friday practice). The only thing that I would’ve liked to see them do is add more to their pass-rush (32nd in the League in sack percentage last year). Nonetheless, I would still expect progression in the pass-rush after the young guys have another year under their belt and with a full season of Sweat. This all speaks to a Team Under for the Titans.
The Bears offence is still a bit of a question mark to me. Yes, Caleb Williams, the #1 overall pick in this year’s Draft, looked electric in the preseason, with Mahomes-esque throws and scrambles. There still may be some growing pains to start the season – but what should help with that: the 11th ranked OLine coming into 2024 according to PFF. Braxton Jones and Darnell Wright could be the best young Tackle duo in the NFL, with the signing of Ryan Bates at C completes an overall solid unit. Couple that with some good RB’s to form a committee (Swift, Johnson, and Herbert), as well as some of the most potent WR’s in the game (Odunze, Top 10 pick in Draft, and Keenan Allen coming from LAC). Everything sets up well for the Bears in this game – however, with the strength of the Titans defence, combined with this potent Bears defence, this one might be a low-scoring affair.
The Titans D is low key pretty damn good. The DLine is huge, and has a good combination of speed to go along with run stoppers (such as Jeffery Simmons, one of the better run-stuffers in the game). The LB core is very athletic, and got a huge boost with the acquisition of Ernest Jones, standout LB with the Rams last year. On top of all that, the DB’s are stellar as well, with the addition of LaJarius Snead (KC’s best corner last year) paired with Awuzie and McCreary to form a Top 5 unit in the Secondary. While the new DC coming in has never called plays for an NFL defence, he was really involved with gameplanning as a Ravens defensive assistant last year, and he has a wealth of experience at other spots coming up through the ranks. I’d expect a lot of disguise concepts (Ravens D scheme) to go along with some other exotic techniques he’s learned elsewhere. That should work out well for a unit with so much talent.
You can see why I favour the Under and Titans Team Under specifically. The Bears defence should be Top 5 in the NFL when all is said and done, and I expect the Titans offence to struggle more than the Bears offence. However, the Bears will still have their difficulties on offence against this staunch Titans D – so take all these plays and let’s work this one into submission.
Game: Denver Broncos vs Seattle Seahawks
Pick: Seattle Seahawks -6.0 (-115) 1.0u Bet365
We considered the Seahawks Team Over as well in this spot – I just don’t think Denver’s going to score enough to push Seattle in this spot. Let’s get into it.
Let’s start with the Denver offence. I’m very cautious with my optimism for this unit – especially to start the season. I like Rookie QB Bo Nix with his vast college experience (started the most games in NCAA history) and his fit within Sean Payton’s system. However, the team is still lacking when it comes to NFL, and specifically WR, talent. Something that might help to an extent: the 15th ranked OLine coming into 2024 according to PFF, with good Tackle play from Bolles and McGlinchey and good Guard play. That being said – it’s going to take some time for this offence to develop, and even with Seattle’s average defence considered – this still looks like a Seahawks blowout waiting to happen.
Let’s talk about the Seahawks D. I actually think this is a balanced unit that should improve this year. They have new DC, Aden Durde, coming in from Dallas after serving as their DLine coach, which should help a pass-rush/run defence that struggled last year. They also signed solid DE Leonard Williams in FA and added 1st Rounder DLineman Byron Murphy in the NFL Draft. On top of that, the LB’s are very athletic led by Jerome Baker, and the Secondary is elite with Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon manning the Corner spots. Expect an improved unit on this side of the ball, one that’s likely to come out of the gates hot against this porous Denver offence.
That being said – the Seahawks still have to score to cover the 6 points. Well, it’s a good thing I have a lot of faith in their offence bouncing back this year. I still think Geno Smith has some juice after he looked good to end Training Camp this year (based on reports). He has a great WR core to throw to in DK, JSN, and Lockett, and good RB’s to help in the run game in Walker and Charbonnet. The OLine may not be highly thought of going into the year (PFF has them 29th on 2024 list), but the FA signing of Connor Williams at C should help quite a bit, and young Tackle Cross should progress even more this year to protect the blindside.
The reason I have renewed faith in the Seahawks offence – new OC Ryan Grubb. This guy led the Washington Huskies and QB Michael Penix to two years averaging 350+ pass yards/game. This guy loves to toss the rock, and the deep-throw-rate was top-notch in his system at Washington (something Geno Smith excelled at in his 2022 breakout). Expect some very creative play designs and a renewed passing game in Seattle.
Pair that with a subpar Broncos defence – and I think this spread is covered. The Broncos do have a great CB in Surtain, but past him, there’s not much. DC Vance Joseph is still the play-caller after giving up 24.3 ppg last year (27th in NFL) and ranking 29th in yards allowed per game. This unit is almost the exact same as last year, so don’t expect too much improvement off the hop. Book the 6 points and let’s ride with the Hawks.
Game: Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers
Pick: Las Vegas Raiders +3.0 (-115) 0.5u Bet365
Pick: Los Angeles Chargers Team Under 20.5 Points (-110) 0.5u Bet365
Let’s start with the LV side of this equation.
Vegas now has Gardiner Minshew starting at QB – who actually can be a decent QB when provided with protection and a good scheme (as he was in Indy last year). Now, he has a potentially good OLine (19th on PFF list, but has the potential to be much better with stalwart LT Kolten Miller, Munford at RT, and JPJ (rookie IOL that was highly regarded) slotting into Guard). The scheme – is average under Luke Getsy, as there’s less pre-snap motion and more reliance on the run game based on Getsy’s time in Chicago. However, I’m willing to give Getsy a break based on Chicago’s offensive limitations when he was there – I could see Gesty getting back to his GB days with Aaron Rodgers. Overall, the offence should control the ball and score a decent amount of points this year (with good weapons at TE (Bowers) and WR (Adams)) – but they still might end up bottom 15 at year’s end.
Vegas’ real strength is on defence, especially with new Head Coach Pierce calling the shots. In fact, the Raiders were #1 in scoring defence after Pierce took over last year. Maxx Crosby is a beast on the edge, and now he’s paired with Pro Bowl DT Christian Wilkins who was signed in FA. The LB’s are athletic, and the Corners are very solid, with one of the better nickelbacks in the League (Nate Hobbs) paired with Jack Jones (who was unreal to end last year). This unit should be very solid yet again this year.
Meanwhile, the Chargers are at the beginning of the “retooling” road with a lack of skill position guys on offence to go along with a good OLine and a Franchise QB. I would expect that with Jim Harbaugh now at the helm, the offence will run alot like the Michigan offence last year. Tons of running the ball between the Tackles coupled with play-action boots – which should work well for the 12th PFF ranked OLine for 2024. However, the RB’s are below-average as a committee, and there are no WR’s that you could truly label as an “alpha”. McConkey might be decent as a 2nd Round Rookie pick, but there’s not much upside to be had here. Expect a “grind it out” approach from this Chargers offence.
Meanwhile, the Chargers D now has Jesse Minter, ex-DC for Michigan, running the defence. He ran a great defence at Michigan (aided by top recruits and elite units) with a lot of disguise concepts. However, the pass-rushers are one year older with a lot of wear and tear over the years (Khalil Mack the old man and Bosa is perennially hurt), the run stuffers are limited, and other than Asante Samuel Jr and Derwin James, the Secondary is subpar. My thought’s with this defence – they probably won’t get lit up, but it will be tough for them to stop Zamir White and Co. on the ground, leading to a ball-control battle that the Raiders should win. Lock it in.
Game: Dallas Cowboys vs Cleveland Browns
Pick: Under 41.0 Total Points (-110) 1.0u Bet365
One thing’s for sure – the Cowboys run game will struggle with a subpar RB committee in tow. However – this run game struggled last year with Pollard putting up a career-low in yards/carry – so not much has changed. This is the same play-caller (McCarthy), with the same solid starting QB (Prescott), and the same good pass-catchers (Lamb and Ferguson). However, there are 3 new concerns this offence will have to deal with: (i) they have a new starting LT in 1st Rounder Tyler Guyton, (ii) they have a new C in mid-round pick Cooper Beebe, and (iii) Ceedee might lack some conditioning considering his holdout. Those three points are enough to give me some concern for this unit to start the season.
The Cowboys lost their DC in Dan Quinn to the Commanders, leading to the hire of old man Mike Zimmer to run the defence. Zimmer inherits an elite unit that performed very well last year, led by the pass-rush with Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence. Zims has a lot of experience running defences, and prefers press-man (good with the skill in this Secondary, led by Diggs) with blitz variations that focus on stopping the run. There could be some regression on this side of the ball – but not much with almost the exact same personnel and an experienced play-caller.
The Cleveland Browns offence – not a fan. I like Stefanski’s system, but I just can’t get there with Deshaun. He’s looked so bad the past couple years – I think it’s insane to think he can get back to his pre-sexual-assault days of play. On top of that, this “great” OLine on paper is missing one of their best pieces in Week One with Jedrick Wills (LT) Out, and Conklin (RT) Questionable. For a team that relies on the run game and protection of their QB – this could be a problem, especially with an average RB in Ford and the only potent WR being Amari Cooper. Yea, I think this one might get ugly for the Browns offence.
Nevertheless – this Cleveland defence is still going to be pretty darn good after finishing last year Top 5 in many statistical categories. We have the same DC, Jim Schwartz, that made this defence elite last year. The Secondary is very solid, led by Denzel Ward. Devin White was added in FA to an already unreal LB core, and we still have Top 3 Edge Myles Garrett going after the QB. Points will come at a premium in this matchup, and I could see it being a real snoozer.
Game: Washington Commanders vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5 (-110) 0.5u Bet365
Pick: Washington Commanders Team Under 19.5 Points (-125) 0.5u Bet365
Bucs win and a low-scoring game from the Commanders. That’s the read here with an inexperienced offence taking on a Todd Bowles-led defence with good skill all over the place.
I like #2 overall pick Jayden Daniels, new starting QB for the Commanders. The guy has great athleticism and a rocket-arm. But this OLine …. It needs some work. The OLine has 2 new starters (career backup and a Rookie 3rd Rounder), which should lead to growing pains early in the season. Further, the skill position players don’t give us much to get excited about sans Scary Terry McLaurin. That’s just not enough firepower when going up against this Bucs D.
The Bucs D may have lost some pieces (Devin White for example), but I believe one more year of development for their pass-rushers (Diaby and Shoyinka) should make up for those losses. They are missing two starting DE’s (Kancey and Logan Hall), but the depth pass-rush options aren’t too far off these guys. The core 3 still run this defence, with Vita Vea clogging the middle, Lavonte David manning the midfield, and Antoine Winfield covering everything over the top. Expect this perennially good defence to continue the trend.
In terms of the Bucs offence – they brought the gang back together again with personnel looking almost exactly the same as last year. While they lost Canales as their OC – the replacement, Liam Coen, ran the Rams offence with McVay last year – so offensive production should translate into this year if he can manage the play-calling duties well in his first stint. I like Baker, I like White, I like Godwin & Evans – and the OLine is still middle of the pack with great bookends and solid Rookie 1st Round Center Graham Barton.
The Commanders defence should improve under Dan Quinn – but that isn’t saying much based on how bad they were last year. Quinn operates a good pass-prevention scheme that may falter against the rush. However, he does have good run stuffers on this roster in Payne and Allen at DT. Nevertheless, with the lack of talent at most other positions on this defence, there won’t be enough to stop this Bucs offence. Lock this one up for the last pick of the day.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with more NFL picks. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
2024 NFL Regular Season: Week 1 Best Bets – Part 2
Game: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Atlanta Falcons
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers Team Under 19.5 Points (-125) 0.5u Bet365
Pick: Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (-110) 0.5u Bet365
Game: Tennessee Titans vs Chicago Bears
Pick: Tennessee Titans Team Under 19.5 Points (-105) 0.5u Bet365
Pick: Chicago Bears -4.0 (-110) 0.5u Bet365
Pick: Under 44.5 Total Points (-110) 0.5u Bet365
Game: Denver Broncos vs Seattle Seahawks
Pick: Seattle Seahawks -6.0 (-115) 1.0u Bet365
Game: Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers
Pick: Las Vegas Raiders +3.0 (-115) 0.5u Bet365
Pick: Los Angeles Chargers Team Under 20.5 Points (-110) 0.5u Bet365
Game: Dallas Cowboys vs Cleveland Browns
Pick: Under 41.0 Total Points (-110) 1.0u Bet365
Game: Washington Commanders vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5 (-110) 0.5u Bet365
Pick: Washington Commanders Team Under 19.5 Points (-125) 0.5u Bet365