9th Edition: The Books Have Swung Back
My Lord – we are getting so damn close to the NFL Season! Plus Money’s NFL Futures Betting Article Series is back, and it’s now right around 3 weeks until NFL Kickoff. 7 more free articles coming in the next 3 weeks, with 14 Futures bets locked and loaded. If you haven’t taken a look at the previous articles in the series (they’re below), the premise is that each week (sometimes twice a week) leading up to the Regular Season, we scour the NFL Season-Long Futures lines for value picks before the season starts.
We had the first edition, Rookie QB’s, the second edition, New Offensive Coordinator Magic, the third edition, Overvalued Pass-Catchers, the fourth edition, Changes in the Trenches, the fifth edition, Don’t Run Forest, the sixth edition, I’m Getting Old, the seventh edition, Do My Eyes Deceive Me, and the eight edition, I Don’t Buy Hype Mothafucka I Sell It. As I said in the original article: make sure to manage your bankroll. Each bet for me is a half unit ($50), and we will end up with 30 total bets before the season starts ($1500 total) – so a lot will be invested prior to the season. Regardless, you can decide your unit-size, and this should give you some extra juice throughout the season, keeping the interest up all the way to the final whistle.
In this 9th edition, we’re seeing the books take a step back in terms of projected production, especially when it comes to pass-catchers. For example, way back in the 3rd Edition of this series (written and published on June 20), Chris Olave had a season-long receiving yards line of 1200.5 yards. We took the Under, seeing the value on such a high projection. Now, Olave’s line is 1075.5 receiving yards – a full 125 yards fewer than the original projection. This has happened almost unanimously across the board for pass-catchers – and in some cases, I’m seeing very good value on Overs to compensate for these reductions. As a result – that will be the theme of this edition in the free betting article series.
One guy is a perennial stud – one that continuously churns out yardage and destroys cornerbacks at the point-of-attack on contested throws. The books are projecting that he’s going to have the worst production of his career since he was a rookie (in 2019) – and he’s still only 26, without much change to his situation. The other guy is also a stud – and projects as the WR1 in a pass-heavy offence. However, the books see him ending up with under 900 yards – something he hasn’t done in a full season since he was locked in as the WR2 behind a legendary counterpart. With all of that considered – let’s get to these picks. Time to join the Overs’ Club.
Previous Articles in Series
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
Season-Long Receiving Yards – Player Props (Futures):
Pick: D.K. Metcalf Over 950.5 Receiving Yards (-115) 0.5u Bet365
Okay, so you see that line set at 950.5 receiving yards. Here are DK’s season-long totals since entering the league in 2019:
- 2019: 58 receptions, 900 receiving yards
- 2020: 83 receptions, 1303 receiving yards
- 2021: 75 receptions, 967 receiving yards
- 2022: 90 receptions, 1048 receiving yards
- 2023: 66 receptions, 1114 receiving yards
My question is: How in the hell do the books have him having his worst season since his rookie year? Let’s break down each aspect of his situation to see why.
First of all – the perceived biggest threat to DK’s production – the emergence of Jaxon Smith-Njigba. JSN is a stud, and was drafted in the 1st round last year to supplement an already strong receiving corps. In 2023 – he was a disappointment based on expectations. He was utilized poorly by the coaching staff (with a majority of his targets coming behind the line of scrimmage) and ended up with under 700 yards receiving. Now, there’s a new coaching staff at the helm – and one would assume they get the young, stud receiver some more looks. However, the probability of JSN’s output eating into DK’s is quite minimal in my mind, as there are other factors at play here.
Tyler Lockett, the other primary WR in this trio, has fallen off much more than DK has in recent years. In fact, DK has largely been trending up as he’s gone along in his career. Tyler Lockett’s performance has been trending down, which makes sense considering his advanced age (31). Lockett had 5 straight seasons with over 1,000 receiving yards going into last year. Last year? He goes for 894 yards. If you compare that to DK from 2022 (1,048 receiving yards) to 2023 (1,114 receiving yards), you can see what I’m getting at. While JSN’s entry into the lineup boosted the production of DK, it lessened the production of Lockett. One could say that more weapons on the offence made DK more effective, as he was able to garner more 1-on-1 coverages and better looks, resulting in more efficiency (50 more receiving yards in 2023 vs 2022 on 24 less receptions). While we could see an increase in JSN’s production, the impact on DK will be minimal because of the regression Lockett has shown, as well as the increased potency of the offence under new OC Ryan Grubb.
Ryan Grubb is the new OC for the Seahawks. He was the offensive play-caller for the Washington Huskies, where he turned a middling program into one of the best passing offences in College Football on the back of Michael Penix Jr. and 3 stud WR’s. Grubb facilitated an average of over 350 passing yards/game over his 2 years at Washington, and Penix’s deep-ball rate increased from 16% to 21% in 2023. This can only mean good things for DK, who is the perceived deep-threat on this team and has absolute burners – as can be seen from this immaculate TD chasedown:
The ex-OC for the Seahawks (Shane Waldron) also wasn’t afraid to lean on the pass game (13th in pass rate last year), but with Grubb’s history considered (his running game production was quite poor at Washington for such a good team), I could see this team entering the Top 10 in pass rate.
Geno Smith is still …. meh. But with an increased focus on lengthening the field with deep passes, and a heightened pass-rate compared to last year, he could get back to his 2022 form (where he was the QB5 in fantasy football). If you look back, the Seahawks did have a higher pass-rate (5th) and downfield passing rate (#1 Deep Passer in the NFL) in 2022. That should translate well here for both Smith and DK.
The Oline (ranked 31st in NFL by PFF entering 2024) and the defence (ranked 24th in NFL by Sportsnaut entering 2024) are poor. While the defence should be better with Mike MacDonald taking over as HC and defensive play-caller (he was the Ravens DC last year), there are still massive deficiencies at multiple positions on the backend. I would expect Seattle to give up quite a few points this year (before becoming a top 15 defence in 2025), and with a poor OLine, god knows there’s going to be massive down-and-distances with holding calls, sacks, and failed rush attempts. That all sets up well for your boy – so why keep fading the most athletic specimen in the NFL? Ride him till the wheels fall off – which I expect won’t be for a while with how stellar and healthy this guy’s been his whole career.
Season-Long Receiving Yards – Player Props (Futures):
Pick: Calvin Ridley Over 875.5 Receiving Yards (-115) 0.5u Bet365
While Ridley may not have the track record that DK has (primarily due to playing second fiddle to Julio Jones, his gambling suspension, and the resulting break he took from football). Regardless – his skill is undeniable, and if he is utilized even close to the same way he was used on the Jags last year (where he had 1,016 receiving yards), he will smash this line. Let’s get into why.
The first big reason: offensive scheme and play-calling. Out with the old, boring offence that was overseen by Vrabel and Co. – in with the revolutionary passing offence overseen by new Head Coach and play-caller, Brian Callahan (the Bengals ex-Offensive Assistant). We all saw what Callahan did with sick receivers and solid QB play in Cincinnati. Now, I’m not saying Will Levis is the same level QB that Burrows is – but the play calling should be much more advanced with 11 personnel aplenty (1 TE, 3 WR sets). The Bengals ranked Top 5 in 11 personnel in the NFL last year – the Titans were in the Bottom 10. Further, the Bengals were in the Top 10 in pass rate the last 2 years, with Tennessee ending up in the Bottom 10, again. Add in the fact that the Titan’s have moved on from Derrick Henry – and there has to be a bigger focus on the passing game. If there’s one thing I see happening – it’s that this passing game should be nearly as potent as the Jags were last year (as I see Levis and Lawrence similarly this year). Further, Ridley isn’t getting any more competition for targets than he had there.
Deandre Hopkins still had a respectable statistical season when all was said and done (1,057 receiving yards in 2023), but he was not consistent. While this can be attributed both to the poor offensive scheme and the growing pains of Will Levis, he didn’t look like that bulletproof WR1 that owns QB targets. Regardless of the fact that the Titans didn’t have any other reliable WR’s last year, Hopkins still had his lowest targets/game (in seasons where he played 15+ games) since 2014. Further, he had one of the lowest catch-per-target rates in the NFL, with 137 targets only resulting in 75 catches. Now, you can blame those stats on (i) Will Levis’ struggles with accuracy while injured, (ii) the low rate of passing in the offence, and (iii) Nuke being the only guy in town who could catch passes. The fact still remains that Hopkins had the worst statistical year of his career since 2014 (when playing a full season), and there’s increased concern due to recent injury troubles and previous suspensions.
Hopkins missed 7 regular season games in 2021 due to injury. He then was suspended 6 games in 2022 for violating the NFL’s drug policy (ingesting Ostarine, an agent known to help with muscle recovery). I always start to get worried with PED pops for older players, as that usually means the guys are supplementing extra hard to recover because their body can’t handle the punishment anymore. After coming back from the suspension in 2022, he missed another 2 games with injury. Now, in the 2024 preseason, Hopkins has suffered another injury (knee), and is projected to miss the whole preseason. They’ve even reported that there’s a possibility of Hopkins missing the season opener. So with everything considered on the Hopkins front, what is stopping Ridley from becoming the #1 target in this offence like he was with the Jags. He had to contend with Christian Kirk and Evan Engram in Jacksonville, who are pretty solid pass-catching options. And that was on an offence that passed the ball at about a league-average rate (10th in the NFL).
Further – the Titans will have to throw the ball quite a bit with the defensive line their fielding. While Tennessee did make upgrades to the CB room (adding Sneed), their defensive pressure is still a problem, and they’re losing a defensive mastermind in Vrabel. Jeffrey Simmons is a great run-stopper, and Harold Landry may have some juice left on the rush, but it’s certainly not a strength of the team. I don’t care how good your DB’s are – if you can’t get pressure on the QB, you will not be successful on defence. I imagine them being right around where they were last year – middle of the league in PPG allowed – which is more than enough for this team to lean pass over run for a majority of the season.
A decent offence, a more friendly pass-heavy scheme, an old receiving corps, and a middling defence. This all lines up well for a guy the bookies don’t expect to have more than 900 receiving yards from. Smash this one baby.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with UFC and PGA bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
Season-Long Receiving Yards – Player Props (Futures):
Pick: D.K. Metcalf Over 950.5 Receiving Yards (-115) 0.5u Bet365
Season-Long Receiving Yards – Player Props (Futures):
Pick: Calvin Ridley Over 875.5 Receiving Yards (-115) 0.5u Bet365