8th Edition: I Don’t Buy HYPE Mothafucka I Sell It
The juices are definitely starting to flow people. Plus Money’s NFL Futures Betting Article Series is back, and it’s now right around 1 month until NFL Kickoff. With that said – we need to kick this article series into overdrive. 8 more free articles coming in the next 4 weeks, with 16 Futures bets locked and loaded. If you haven’t taken a look at the previous articles in the series (they’re below), the premise is that each week (now twice a week) leading up to the Regular Season, we scour the NFL Season-Long Futures lines for value picks before the season starts.
We had the first edition, Rookie QB’s, the second edition, New Offensive Coordinator Magic, the third edition, Overvalued Pass-Catchers, the fourth edition, Changes in the Trenches, the fifth edition, Don’t Run Forest, the sixth edition, I’m Getting Old, and the seventh edition, Do My Eyes Deceive Me. As I said in the original article: make sure to manage your bankroll. Each bet for me is a half unit ($50), and we will end up with 30 total bets before the season starts ($1500 total) – so a lot will be invested prior to the season. Regardless, you can decide your unit-size, and this should give you some extra juice throughout the season, keeping the interest up all the way to the final whistle.
In this 8th edition, we’re looking at guys who have the hype-train going full speed right now. Whether it be sterling camp reports, projected opportunity, change in scenery – or a combination of the three – these guys are getting the double wrister sandpaper finish from every beat reporter and their mother. In reality – these two fellas that I’m targeting have to hit their absolute ceiling to justify these lines – and even then, it’ll be difficult.
One guy is coming off an amazing season, one that stands in the record books, and things can only seemingly get better with the addition of more offensive weapons. The other guy is a perennial stud as a pass catcher – and his line is set accordingly. But recent complications with the team, his age, and his perceived selfish attitude leave me wanting a lot more than what this betting line suggests. So without further ado – let’s rack em’ up.
Previous Articles in Series
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
Season-Long Passing Yards – Player Props (Futures):
Pick: CJ Stroud Under 4,275 Passing Yards (-140) 0.5u Bet365
Before you get your panties in a bunch and start going in on me about how CJ is the future of the league and a Top 5 QB – I agree with you. The guy is a stud, breaking the Rookie record for passing yardage with an unreal 4,108 passing yards in 15 games. The guy is no joke – and neither is the offence with Bobby Slowmo calling the plays (pure genius with his play designs) and the addition of Stefon Diggs to the WR group.
The thing is – there were 5 QB’s last year who went over 4,275 passing yards. Notable omissions from that Top 5 include Patty Mahomes, Jordan Love, Baker Mayfield, Matt Stafford, and Jalen Hurts. All of whom played 15 games or more on the season – so injury didn’t play a role in their output. The fact is – throwing for this many yards is fucking difficult, and everything has to break right for an Over here. Let me explain further.
We’ll start with the protection – as offensive line play is just as important to QB play as the offensive weapons IMO. The Texans OLine last year suffered from numerous injuries. 7 different OLineman logged 400 snaps – and another 3 players got in 200 snaps or more. One could suggest that the OLine is developing, and another year under their belt should vault them into the OLine Top 10. The difficulty with that is – because the injuries in 2023 were to projected starters, who then missed a majority of the year, they weren’t able to develop last year. In reality, this OLine can only put forth Tunsil and Shaq Mason as plus-starters (and fair is fair, those are two stud OLineman). The difficulty comes everywhere else on the line. They drafted a Tackle in the 2nd round this year (Blake Fisher from Notre Dame) who could’ve used another year of College and will primarily be a backup to start. You have Kenyon Green and Juice Scruggs, both with upside and potential, but yet to prove they can be reliable game-to-game. PFF has some good reads on OLines going into the season – and they project Houston as the 22nd best OLine this year. That’s about where I see them too – so don’t expect a lot more protection for a guy who was sacked the 8th most times last year (38 sacks taken).
Now – onto the offensive weapons. The Texans made a huge splash this offseason and cashed in their chips for two skill position upgrades on offence – ex-Bills WR Stefon Diggs and ex-Bengals RB Joe Mixon. The question is – how will these two entities affect the offence? My answer to that question: not much
Well, that’s not exactly true. I think Joe Mixon will breathe some life into the run game. He’s a more powerful back than Singletary, and I think that even a marginal increase in skill from the backfield should add to a more conservative run vs pass split (Texans threw the ball the 12th most last year at 57.1%). Regardless, Slowick (the OC) is still going to favour the pass – which leads us to Stefon Diggs. Call me crazy, but I don’t think Diggs makes all that much of a difference. This is not an offence that predicates itself on the receivers getting separation and beating their men one-on-one. There’s a reason why Noah Brown looked like a world-beater last year when Tank Dell went out with injury – it’s because of the offensive scheme. You could put almost any WR out there for the Texans with marginal skills and some good wheels – and they would put up decent production. I believe that at this point in their careers, Dell and Collins are both better WR’s than Diggs. So just because Houston added the flashy name with a stellar past – doesn’t mean all that much when it comes to production. Even if Stroud’s # of completions go up because he gets a little more separation from his skill guys – that’s offset by his projected lower workload. Why the lower workload you may ask?
Well, the Texans have to be better on defence this year. You have another year of progression from the young studs, Stingley and Will Anderson. You have the upgrade of FA gem Danielle Hunter and Demeco Ryans favourite linebacker just got signed to the squad (Al-Shaair). Even Demeco Autry (suspied to start the season) should add some “oomph” to the DLine. While Houston’s Defence was pretty great on the ground last year (2nd in the NFL allowing 3.6 yards/rush), they were very bad when it came to the pass (20th in pass yards/game and 30th in completion %). They addressed their lack of pass coverage through the draft (their highest pick, early in the 2nd, was on standout CB Kamari Lassiter) and through FA (CJ Henderson – 2019 9th overall pick, and Jeff Okudah – 2020 3rd overall pick both added). When opponents start scoring even less – the run game will be implemented more often, and the pass game will take a backseat. That means less attempts for Stroud – who already was relying on insane efficiency last year to get to over 4,000 passing yards (out of the 10 QB’s that had over 4,000 passing yards last year, only Brock Purdy and CJ Stroud had under 550 pass attempts).
All in all, we’re looking at a situation where very little substantial change has occurred (even though it may look like a big shift on the surface) – yet we expect a better result from Stroud because guys HAVE to get better with more experience. One side of the equation that’s often left out is that the more experienced these guys get, the more experienced the opposing play callers get when it comes to game-planning against them. I’m not saying Stroud will struggle this year – but I would not be surprised if he has some pee-yew stinker games throughout the year because the tape’s out on him and Slowick’s offence. That will make this Total hard to reach – especially considering he has to be a Top 5 pocket-passer to get there.
Season-Long Receiving Yards – Player Props (Futures):
Pick: Davante Adams Under 1,100.5 Receiving Yards (-130) 0.5u Bet365
Oh Davante – what could have been had you never forced your way out of Green Bay. I kind of get it with the Aaron Rodgers nonsense going on at that time – but this guy could’ve been catching Jordan Love’s filthy spirals last year, enjoying playoff success in the green and gold. Instead, he was crying about how shitty the offence was in LV while cussing out any QB he could find. Oh, and there was also the comments about how “wins and losses” don’t really matter – take that for what you will:
My question is this: How on earth do guys like Waddle, Devonta Smith, and DJ Moore have lower yardage total lines than Davante? The only excuse: because those WR’s have crowded pass-catcher units, whereas it seems as though Davante will be the only guy in town again. And fair enough, Davante did end up with 1,144 receiving yards last year on the back of his 2nd highest target total of his career (his highest target total was also with the Raiders in 2022). He was force-fed the ball, with a ridiculously low yards-per-target total when compared to his career average. The thing is – this year, I don’t see that same kind of force-feed happening – and we can’t really say the QB situation has gotten any better with both Minshew and AOC struggling to start camp (with AOC actually looking better recently):
One big reason for a downtick in targets for Adams this year – Brock Bowers. Each and every pass catcher from last year’s Raiders team is back – and now they have to make up more targets for the best all-around TE to come out of the draft in a long while. We’ve seen more recently that the transition for rookie TE’s is becoming easier, and while I don’t expect Bowers to have a Laporta-level season (120 targets), I would expect at least a Kincaid-level season from the guy (91 targets). So there, already, you’re expecting some of Davante’s targets to get syphoned off.
Then, we look to new HC Antonio Pierce and how his offence performed last year. Prior to Pierce getting hired, the Raiders were at 199 passing yards/game and 70 rushing yards/game. Following Pierce getting the Interim tag, the Raiders still ended up with the same passing yards/game (199), but increased the rushing total to 109 rushing yards/game. Pierce has always preached a physical style of football, so this makes sense. Now, Pierce has hired Luke Getsy (previous OC for Bears and Offensive Coach in Green Bay) to run the offence. While Getsy does have experience with Davante, his scheme is predicated on smash-mouth running and play action with deep shots. Davante still has some wheels and can still catch the deep ball, but can that actually work with the 19th ranked OLine (PFF ranks) and a subpar QB with more competition for targets? Very hard to envision that being the case, as Davante has always been more of a possession-based WR.
There’s also the Raiders defence to consider. Under McDaniels, the Raiders defence allowed 23 points/game, and had to pass more to keep up in those games. Under Pierce, the Raiders’ defence was much better, allowing a mere 16 points/game which allowed them to implement the run more (see their increased rushing totals under Pierce, which was noted in the paragraph above). That’s not good for any pass-catcher on the Raiders – let alone their best one.
If you add up it all up, this year, everything is the exact same other than the facts that: (a) Davante is one year older at an advanced age already, (b) he now has to rely more on explosive plays and not 14 targets a game, and (c) he has increased competition from a stud skill-position player. With a better defence, which should limit the passing-game upside for this team – this one is juicy. Lock it in.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with UFC and PGA bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
Season-Long Passing Yards – Player Props (Futures):
Pick: CJ Stroud Under 4,275 Passing Yards (-140) 0.5u Bet365
Season-Long Receiving Yards – Player Props (Futures):
Pick: Davante Adams Under 1,100.5 Receiving Yards (-130) 0.5u Bet365