Seventh Edition: Do My Eyes Deceive Me?
Your favourite NFL Futures Betting Article Series is back ladies and gents! It is now right around 7 weeks until Kickoff (just under two months folks) – which means there’s another 9 free articles on the horizon with 18 Futures bets waiting in the wings. If you haven’t taken a look at the previous articles in the series (they’re below), the premise is that each week (sometimes twice a week) leading up to the Regular Season, we scour the NFL Season-Long Futures lines for value picks before the season starts.
We had the first edition, Rookie QB’s, the second edition, New Offensive Coordinator Magic, the third edition, Overvalued Pass-Catchers, the fourth edition, Changes in the Trenches, the fifth edition, Don’t Run Forest, and the sixth edition, I’m Getting Old. As I said in the original article: make sure to manage your bankroll. Each bet for me is a half unit ($50), and we will end up with 30 total bets before the season starts ($1500 total) – so a lot will be invested prior to the season. Regardless, you can decide your unit-size, and this should give you some extra juice throughout the season, keeping the interest up all the way to the final whistle.
In this seventh edition, we’re again focusing on the Running Backs to take a look at their season-long player props concerning rushing yardage totals and rushing touchdown totals. After scanning the market and going through some analysis, there are two key spots where I see the lines as severely undervalued. But, unlike the two previous articles where I focused on RB’s to go Under their totals (mostly due to their increased injury rates) – I’m flipping it up this time around. I have two RB Over Props that I envision hitting even if these guys miss 5-6 games over the year. In fact, they should easily smash these lines based on a variety of factors – all of which I’ll lay out below.
One guy is a fantasy darling with immense upside and an apparent disrespect from the bookies regarding his rush game. One guy is a fantasy question mark that jumps into a huge opportunity – and the books just don’t seem to believe he can be the guy. Two very different stories; but for each guy I’m envisioning the same thing. Success. So without further ado, let’s fire off two more Futures.
Previous Articles in Series:
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
Season-Long Rushing Yards – Player Props (Futures)
Pick: Bijan Robinson Over 925.5 Rushing Yards (-125) 0.5u Bet365
We all know Bijan is a Saquon-level RB based on his prospect profile and his efficiency as a Rookie. I just don’t get this line. 926 rushing yards – that’s all we need for this one to hit. Last year, Bijan ripped off 976 rushing yards on 214 carries (good for a 4.6 yard average, 12th best among all RB’s) – and it didn’t feel good at all. I mean, sure he had some decent games/great plays – but it mostly felt like Arthur Smith was throwing shit at the wall the whole year, trying to figure out what stuck. Bijan was big in the receiving game (close to 500 yards receiving on 58 receptions), but he seemed very underutilized on the ground. Smith still seemed obsessed with the Allgeier + Patterson combo, that sicko.
Just look at how many rushing opportunities were syphoned from Bijan with Arthur at the helm: Allgeier almost had the same amount of carries last year with 186 attempts, and Patterson ripped off another 50 attempts on the ground. All of the sudden – you realise that Allgeier + Patterson had more rushing attempts than Bijan. I know you run the ball a lot Arthur, and you need to split the opportunities up to keep guys healthy. But the reality of the situation is – if Bijan plays 17 games (as he did last year), it’s coaching malpractice not to have him carrying the ball a majority of the time. Allgeier is a fine RB, and should still definitely be involved in this offence to lessen the chances of Bijan succumbing to fatigue and/or injury. But Allgeier should be getting 30-35% of the rushing opportunities – not 46% like he did last year. The good news is – it’s a new era in the ATL.
Arthur Smith? Gone. Cordarrelle Patterson? Gone. Any threat from FA RB’s or Rookies for touches in the backfield? Nope.
Those three points should be enough for optimism to spring eternal. But just wait until I get to the additions this team made:
- Raheem Morris was hired as Head Coach (ex-DC of LA Rams), which means the offence is now in the hands of Zac Robinson (who followed Morris from LA, previously serving as QB Coach/Passing Game Coordinator). Zac has already gone on record saying he’s going to use Bijan like Christian McCaffrey – which sounds pretty decent when Chrisitian had 280 rush attempts for 1,500 rushing yards last year. I know that’s just coach-speak, but the Rams offence was notorious for running a Bellcow-back setup, as is evidenced by guys like Todd Gurley (remember him), Cam Akers, and Kyren Williams. While I don’t necessarily expect Bijan to have McCaffrey-like volume (guy takes 90% of snaps from the backfield, absurd), the volume of rush attempts should still be much higher than last year.
- ATL also added Kirk Cousins in free agency. There are multiple points to be made with this addition – all of which are advantageous to Bijan. First off – the team will be better. Moving from Desmond Ridder to Kirk Cousins – who will be a huge upgrade even if he’s lost a step with the achilles tear – is huge for Bijan’s gamescript game-to-game. The Falcons will be ahead in more games, and you know what happens when NFL teams are leading into the 2nd half? They run the ball a lot more. Not only that, but with a more proficient passing game, Bijan should have a lot more room to operate at the line of scrimmage. Those stacked boxes that defences would often bring with Ridder at the helm – well, there should be way less of them now.
With all of that considered, this one just seems like a layup. The Falcons still have a Top 10 OLine in the NFL (ranked 6th in PFF’s projected 2024 OLine ranks) – which ranks even better in the run game than the pass. Bijan will be the guy, and the offence will operate much more efficiently. The team will win more, leading to more positive game scripts. The Rams offence makes any RB look like a world beater, let alone a first rounder that was tagged as a generational talent at the position. Don’t think too hard about this one – even with a 12 game season (accounting for possible injuries), I find it very likely Bijan gets Over this total. So let’s ride folks.
Season-Long Rushing Touchdowns – Player Props (Futures)
Pick: Zack Moss Over 6.5 Rushing Touchdowns (+100) 0.5u Bet365
Zack Moss is such an interesting case of a player who had decent expectations as a rookie, who then failed to live up to those expectations, only to join a new team last year and revive his career. Well, good on him, because it ended up getting him a starting job with Cincy this year to replace Joe Mixon. And please – don’t give me any of this “Chase Brown could be the starter” nonsense. I realise this could be a committee, but there is no doubt in my mind that all signs point to Moss getting 60-70% of the snaps.
With that said, who would you have running the ball inside the opponent’s 10 yard line for a prolific offence in the Cincinnati Bengals? We have to follow the money. Cincy obviously felt that they needed another significant piece next to Chase Brown, which is why they signed Moss to a 2 year, $8 Million deal. For as modest a contract that is, he is getting paid much more than Brown. And Brown didn’t handle any opportunities inside the 5 yard line last year – that was all Mixon. So one could easily assume that Cincy is bringing Moss in to fill the Mixon role – one that includes all the goal line work. That’s significant considering Mixon vacates the third most inside-the-20 rushes (56), the most inside-the-10 rushes (38), and third most inside-the-5 attempts (18). For reference – here are Mixon’s rushing TD totals over his career with Joe Burrow (leaving out Burrow’s injury shortened rookie season):
- 2021: 13 rushing TD’s, 16 games played
- 2022: 7 rushing TD’s, 14 games played
- 2023: 9 rushing TD’s, 17 games played
And that’s not even taking into account the fact that at this point in their careers – Moss might be the better pure RB.
Many might not realize that Moss was a Top 5 RB on the Colts last year from weeks 2-5, where he was the de facto starter with Jonathan Taylor out. Over those 4 games, Moss had over 500 yards rushing with 4 rushing TD’s. But the bookies see him with around 6 rushing TD’s this year … when he will be projected to have the same role he had in Indy for those 4 weeks (where he averaged one rushing touchdown per game) … with more rushing touchdown opportunities in a better offence in Cincy. Tell me how that adds up?
It doesn’t make sense. We had the same thing with Kyren Williams last year. All of the Rams RB’s were going late in fantasy drafts – but in a good offence with a good QB, the TD’s had to go SOMEWHERE. Mark my words, Moss will be the Kyren Williams of this year – and he will smoke this line with room to spare.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with UFC and PGA bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks
Season-Long Rushing Yards – Player Props (Futures)
Pick: Bijan Robinson Over 925.5 Rushing Yards (-125) 0.5u Bet365
Season-Long Rushing Touchdowns – Player Props (Futures)
Pick: Zack Moss Over 6.5 Rushing Touchdowns (+100) 0.5u Bet365