Fifth Edition – Don’t Run Forest, Don’t Run:
We might be a little late getting the 5th article of this series out after being on vacation last week – but don’t fret, we’re back with the weekly NFL Futures Betting article series! It is now right around 10 weeks until Kickoff (fuck yes) – which means there’s another 11 free articles (making up for last week) on the horizon with 22 Futures bets waiting in the wings. If you haven’t taken a look at the previous articles in the series (they’re below), the premise is that each week leading up to the Regular Season, we scour the NFL Season-Long Futures lines for value picks before the season starts. We had the first edition, Rookie QB’s, the second edition, New Offensive Coordinator Magic, the third edition, Overvalued Pass-Catchers, and the fourth edition, Changes in the Trenches. As I said in the original article: make sure to manage your bankroll. Each bet for me is a half unit ($50), and we will end up with 30 total bets before the season starts ($1500 total) – so a lot will be invested prior to the season. Regardless, you can decide your unit-size, and this should give you some extra juice throughout the season, keeping the interest up all the way to the final whistle.
In the fifth edition – we’re going back to the Season-Long Player Props. Each of the articles to this point have focused on Season-Long Player Props (excluding the last article on Regular Season Team Win Totals) – but none have included RB’s. Today, we’re going after these beastly ball carriers to see if we can find a few edges to play. It didn’t take me too long to scope out a few prime opportunities to cash – and as you should always be doing with running back season-long player props – we’re going for two Unders. It’s simple: 28% of RB’s were healthy for the full season last year, while 48% of WR’s were healthy for the full season (per MassLive). That’s a big bloody difference – one we intend to exploit with these picks. So without further ado, let’s get to the plays.
Previous Articles in Series
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
Season-Long Rushing Yards – Player Props (Futures)
Pick: Jonathon Brooks Under 800.5 Rushing Yards (-110) 0.5u Bet365
For as much as this seems like hate against Brooks – that couldn’t be further from the truth. I think the kid’s a stud, and I’d be shocked if he doesn’t have an impressive career with his deadly one-cut speed and impressive pass-catching chops. The thing is …. there are more than a few things lined up against Brooksy in his rookie season that could prevent him from getting that top-24 RB output for the whole year. In fact, I’d be surprised if he has the most rushing yards for a rookie RB this year – and that’s saying something with the strength of this rookie RB class (very mid).
Let’s start with the most obvious piece to the puzzle: Brooks’ torn ACL at the end of last season. He got lucky to have a clean tear of the ACL, speeding up recovery time, but there’s no guarantee this guy is ready to start the season. I mean, it would be a serious mismanagement of assets for the lowly Panthers (who really aren’t looking for wins this year as much as development) to throw a rookie RB they took early in the 2nd round out there without absolute certainty he is at 100%. Reports are that he might not miss any time to start the season – but even if he doesn’t miss time – the coaching staff would be idiotic not to ease him into NFL action, making sure his body is holding up to the increased contact after major surgery. With Canales at the helm now as Head Coach in Carolina (smart guy from all accounts), that will likely be the route they choose.
But it’s not only the limited opportunity with the ACL tear that plays into this Under pick. The Fantasy Footballers recently put out an article that concluded RB’s are generally less efficient in the year following their ACL tear (no duh, but they had the data to back it up). Now – the article also states that this is not always the case when the RB is young – but it’s definitely happened:
- Dalvin Cook tore his ACL in his rookie season (2017) – and the next year (2018), he’s constantly hampered by hamstring injuries and poor performance, resulting in a 615 rushing yard season in 11 games (for reference, the seasons after that, he put up 1135, 1557, 1159, and 1173 rushing yards respectively).
- Saquon Barkley tore his ACL in his third year (2020) – and the next year (2021), he’s troubled by nagging injuries, poor OLine play, and less explosiveness. He ends up with 593 rushing yards in 13 games.
- Javonte Williams tore his ACL in his second year (2022) after putting up 903 rushing yards in his rookie year (2021). The next year (2023), he actually gets a lot of work (most carries in career), yet he ends up with 774 rushing yards in 16 games.
I mean, there are mitigating circumstances you can point to in each instance to explain why this might’ve happened (poor offensive play, etc.), and there are outliers when it comes to this comparison (think Breece Hall or Purple Jesus (AP) in their post ACL-tear seasons). Nonetheless, the outliers are the exceptions to the rule (AP and Breece are from another planet after all), and there’s just too much data to back up the fact that a post ACL-tear season is no bueno for RB’s.
Further, while Brooks may have the clearest path of any rookie to being a Day One starter on this Carolina team, he really doesn’t need to be for them to have success on the ground. While the other options are middling (Chuba Hubbard, Miles Sanders, Rashaad Penny), they did just fine in a committee last year. Chuba specifically showed to be a serviceable back that can catch the ball (important in Canales system – see Rachaad White). Canales does like to ride a bellcow RB like he did in Tampa. But even last year, Rachaad only had 990 yards rushing (with the most total snaps by an RB in the League last year – holy shit). This is somewhat due to the weakness of Tampa’s running game in general, but it’s also predicated on the fact that Canales utilizes the RB as a receiver a lot more than other coaches. This Under only considers rushing yards – so this helps us tremendously.
Last but not least – it’s the Panthers. While I expect improvement from them with their OLine additions (Bradley Bozeman, Robert Hunt, and Damien Lewis added on the IOL) and WR additions (Legette and Diontae), the offence still won’t be a world-beater this year. I have watched football for a long time, and if there’s one thing I know, it’s that you’re always going to bet on the RB with the better offence to put up more rushing yards than the RB in a mediocre offence. Simple math: if a defence has more to be worried about in the passing game, they won’t be as proficient against the run. This all adds up to a mediocre season for Brooks before his breakout in year two – and man, that should be a hell of a breakout.
Pick: Tony Pollard Under 750.5 Rushing Yards (-110) 0.5u Bet365
I don’t think anyone will get mad at me for hating on Pollard here: he burned everyone and their mother last year who picked him in Fantasy Football. Not due to poor production necessarily (1,005 rushing yards and 55 receptions is dece) – but the expectations. It was Tony’s first year as the bell cow back – and he really wasn’t any better than he was the previous eason as the lightning to Zeke’s thunder (1,007 rushing yards in 2022 on 60 less carries). Tony might be losing a step – or it could be that he doesn’t hold up at the 1A in a backfield. Either way – that’s gonna be a problem in an offence that will now rely much more on the passing game, with a very competent 1B RB (Tyjae Spears) waiting in the wings to syphon touches.
I get it – 750 rushing yards is really not that much. Well, I’ll let you in on a little secret: Pollard had gone under this line in all of his first 3 seasons. He then had the unreal 5 yards-per-carry season in 2022, with 190 carries for 1,007 yards running behind a very proficient offence with a top 5 OLine. Then, he put up just over 1,000 yards last year with an absurd amount of carries (which he won’t get in Tennessee), when he was still in a proficient offence with a good OLine. While the Titans should have an improved OLine this year with the rookie Latham, the sophomore Skoronski, and FA addition Lloyd Cushenberry – it is not the Dallas Cowboys OLine from 2022, and it’s not particularly close.
But let’s also look at the offensive scheme and play-calling. The Titans hired former Bengals OC Brian Callahan to be their Head Coach. He will be calling the offence. We all saw what Callahan did with sick receivers and solid QB play in Cincinnati. We also saw what he did with his pass-run splits in games, even with a solid RB like Joe Mixon. Last year, the Bengals ran the ball the 3rd least in the NFL, totalling 38.4% of their plays. In contrast, they had the 3rd highest passing play percentage in the NFL at 61.6%. For reference, Dallas had 80 more rushing plays than Cinci last year (with a run play percent of 43.3%, middle of the pack in the ranks).
So let’s do the quick maths on all these points: Tony put up just over 1,000 rushing yards last year on:
- A team that ran the ball 80 times more over the season;
- A team that didn’t have a competent complimentary back (like he does now with Tyjae Spears);
- In an offence that was more proficient (Dak vs Levis, no duh), and;
- A team with a better OLine.
All of the sudden, 750 rushing yards doesn’t look so easy.
Pollard may be even more effective than last year with his gas tank more reserved, leading to greater efficiency. But with the lack of touches – it won’t really matter, because our Under still cashes. Lock it in folks.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with UFC and PGA bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks
Season-Long Rushing Yards – Player Props (Futures)
Pick: Jonathon Brooks Under 800.5 Rushing Yards (-110) 0.5u Bet365
Pick: Tony Pollard Under 750.5 Rushing Yards (-110) 0.5u Bet365