Fourth Edition: Changes in the Trenches
Okay my NFL Football-loving friends – we’re back with the weekly NFL Futures Betting article series! It is now 12(!!!) weeks until Kickoff – which means there’s another 12 free articles on the horizon with 24 Futures bets waiting in the wings. If you haven’t taken a look at the previous articles in the series (they’re below), the premise is that each week leading up to the Regular Season, we scour the NFL Season-Long Futures lines for value picks before the season starts. We had the first edition, Rookie QB’s, the second edition, New Offensive Coordinator Magic, and the third edition, Overvalued Pass-Catchers. As I said in the original article: make sure to manage your bankroll. Each bet for me is a half unit ($50), and we will end up with 30 total bets before the season starts ($1500 total) – so a lot will be invested prior to the season. Regardless, you can decide your unit-size, and this should give you some extra juice throughout the season, keeping the interest up all the way to the final whistle.
In the fourth edition – we’re switching things up a little bit. Each of the articles to this point have focused on Season-Long Player Props – but not today. Today, we’re going after the Team Regular Season Win Totals, where I’m seeing two spots on the board with good value. The theme today: Changes in the Trenches. This includes changes on both sides of the ball – and as long-time football fans, we all know there is no greater impact on winning than strength on the OLine and DLine (next to an Elite QB of course – but if that QB can’t be protected, chances are it doesn’t look great). For one of these teams – addressing their pass-rush and pass-protection deficiencies could make all the difference. For the other team – the lack of addressing positional needs in the trenches, while hoping developmental players can make the jump to high-level starters, leaves them in a precarious position – especially when their signal-caller has an injury history. With all of that said – let’s get to the picks.
Previous Articles in Series:
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
Season-Long Regular Season Wins – Team Props (Futures):
Pick: Baltimore Ravens Under 11.5 Wins (-158) (BetMGM) 0.5u
(Before you get mad Raven’s fans, full disclosure, I still think Baltimore makes the Playoffs.)
Baltimore, Baltimore – I know you guys have a ton of belief in your development in-house, and things went really well last year with Monken taking over the offence. Regardless – that team last year was stacked-to-the-gills with talent and supporting playmakers. And they showed their talent – racking up 13 wins despite two losses to the Steelers through the season. The thing is – a lot has changed since that moment in time. I think a bullet-point analysis may be the best way to get it all out there:
- I’m seeing sources with Baltimore as a middle-of-the-road strength of schedule going into last year (12th hardest via SportsDime.com), whereas the strength-of-schedule this year has them on the Top 5 toughest schedules list (4th hardest via SharpFootballAnalysis.com). I know these rankings can be subjective to an extent – but this makes sense with the division building up around Baltimore. You have Cinci, with a full-health Burrow and Co. entering the season (who may have an even better running game with Zack Moss compared to Joe-Slow Mixon). You have Pittsburgh, now rocking what looks to be a competent offence with two mobile QB’s and two strong RB’s – with an OC that loves mobile QB’s and running the football. Not to mention the strides made with the OLine in Pitt (all of their draft picks basically went toward the OLine). To top it all off – you have the filthy Browns rounding things out, with possibly the best coach in the league, good camp news from Deshaun, and a solid defence that looks relatively the same.
- A huge reason they won all those games so handily last year was defence. Now, Mike MacDonald, their stud newcomer of a DC last year, leaves town to take up the Head Coaching mantle in Seattle. With Mike, the Ravens ranked 1st in Points Allowed, and led the league in multiple other team-defence categories. Mike also took some key assistant coaches with him to Seattle – and Harbaugh was left with Zach Orr as the replacement DC. Nothing against Zach-attack, those are just big shoes to fill and a lot of pressure for an Inside Linebackers Coach.
- Speaking about defence – it wasn’t just Mike that departed. Jadaveon Clowney, a very effective pass-rusher last year that racked up over 9 sacks – gone. Ronald Darby, a good supporting corner who filled in valiantly last year with an absurd 43 times targeted: 19 completions allowed – gone. Geno Stone, an absolute breakout at the safety position with 7 interceptions last year – gone. And maybe the most important, the yin to Roquan Smith’s yang, Patrick Queen left to the Steelers – leaving a gaping hole in the middle of the Ravens defence. The Ravens have continued to say that they have guys who can step-up into these positions – and they must have adequate depth pieces with the lack of Free Agents signed to fill these needs. But to replace these four stud-level contributors with nothing but bench-fodder … that ain’t great Bob.
- The last thing we’ll speak to is the trench-changes on the offensive side of the football. And my oh my, things aren’t great. They did get rid of starting Guard John Simpson (not great, 56.5 PFF grade), but the key losses are Guard Kevin Zeitler (near 70 PFF grade) and Tackle Morgan Moses (one of the best Right Tackles last year with a 77.6 PFF grade). I know Baltimore may have compensated for these losses by signing a Mack Truck at running back (love me some DHen), but the options they’re left with to create running lanes …. not great. There are a ton of middling options (vet Ben Cleveland is decent I guess, and there’s second-round pick RT Rosengarten that had his detractors in the draft, but may be solid). Regardless, the chances that this OLine doesn’t struggle, especially early, when the Ravens are set to have two OLine starters with 0 career NFL snaps ….. I’ll pass.
All in all – it looks like a mess compared to last year. And if we look back through Lamar Jackson’s career with Baltimore (6 years), they’ve gone Over 11.5 wins TWO TIMES. Those two years – Lamar was MVP. I don’t know about you guys, but if that’s the criteria for this one to go Over, I’m going Under with a side of fries please.
Pick: New York Giants Over 6.5 Wins (+120) (Bet365) 0.5u
Call me a dumb-dumb all you want – I like the Giants offseason. You see the shitshow that happened last year in the Empire State of Mind, and I’m sure nobody’s picking this team for the Playoffs anytime soon. But think about this 6.5 win line – now think about a less talented squad that had 9 wins in 2022. Now think about New York just missing this Over (6 wins last year, 2023) with a combination of Tyrod Taylor and Tommy Devito at the helm (bless his soul, he was a terrible NFL QB). I mean, c’mon guys, what are we doing here? The hate can only go so far – and I think the Giants have at least 7 wins coming their way because of three improvements to their three most dire areas of need. Let’s list em’ out here for the kids in the back.
- Competent Pass-Catchers: Last year, the Giants had maybe the worst collection of pass-catchers in the NFL. They were also very young, with WanDale Robinson and Jalin Hyatt just entering the league. This is fixed in my mind with the addition of Malik Nabers. The guy is a no-joke WR1 coming right out of the hopper – his tape shows a mix of Tyreek Hill burst and YAC abilities (the likes of which this league hasn’t seen). The separation Nabers gets on almost every route is bound to help my boy Daniel Jones. And why is everyone so out on DJ after thinking he was New York’s saviour post-2022? He’s back healthy from the knee and neck concerns, the OLine is revamped (see below), and he now has the previously mentioned Nabers and one of the best TE’s in the draft in Theo Johnson. Expect a higher passing total this year – maybe even a higher total than 2022 with DJ’s continued progression, the OLine additions, and the pass-catcher upgrades.
- OLine Upgrades: Again – last year, the Giants had maybe the worst collection of OLineman in the league (save for Andrew Thomas at LT, who was injured for a significant portion of the season). There were three spots of primary concern: the two Guard spots, and RT with Evan Neal. Well, although they weren’t able to address all three, they definitely addressed two of the spots. Adding Jon Runyan Jr (a plus-starter Guard on Green Bay last year) and Jermaine Eluemunor (showed starter-level play at RT for Las Vegas the last two years) is huge for this unit. It gives the Giants an ability to switch Neal to Guard if he struggles, and brings a more veteran-level presence to an otherwise young OLine. Anyone who watches football can agree that if an OLine plays well as a unit, it can make up for individual weaknesses from person-to-person. I’m taking the bet that this OLine improves significantly – it really can’t get any worse than last year, where they brought a retired Pugh on to man the Tackle position for a few games.
- Pass-Rush Upgrades and New DC: Wink Martindale is a revered DC, no doubt about it. But his fit with this team, and his outdated all-pressure system, made for an underachieving backend last year. Now, we have a more varied approach coming from Titans Ex-DC Shane Bowen. Gone is the 50% blitz rate and pure man coverage (for a team that already struggled at cornerback) – now we have a low blitz-rate and more zone. This makes so much more sense for a team that struggles to cover: but the counterpoint is that they now have to rely on the front 4 pass rushers for quarterback pressure. Well lucky for them – they now have a top 5 (possibly even Top 3) triplet of pass rushers in the NFL. Thibodeaux, a top Draft pick from a few years back, had his breakout year with 11.5 sacks. The DT, Dexter Lawrence, is regarded as one of the best interior DLineman in the NFL. Last but not least – the addition of Brian Burns (5 straight years with at least 7.5 sacks). I know they lost McKinney at safety and Jackson at corner – but with the increased passrushing ability, coupled with less reliance on man coverage …. the Giants are cooking with gas.
All in all – these guys would have to be as bad as they were last year to go Under this line. I can’t see it. I know a lot of you will be pointing to the significant loss of Saquon or the strength of the Division to detract from this analysis. To that, I have two things to say:
- One: 4.3 yards per touch last year for Barkley is quite inefficient (he was 4.7 the year before). He played 14 games and ended up with ~1,100 all-purpose yards. Now you have Singletary (not for nothing, this guy has been the RB1 for successive winning teams in Buffalo and Houston), with a better OLine, and less stacked boxes because there’s a semblance of a passing game. I don’t think rushing production will take a hit – no matter the skill discrepancy between Saquon and Singletary.
- Two: Is this division really all that scary? You have the Eagles at the top, who have only gotten worse (on paper) at every position but RB. There are two new Coordinators there as well (Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio) who had abysmal units last year. Then, you have the Cowboys, who went “all in” this offseason to the tune of bringing a washed Zeke back while refusing to fill other positional holes. Then, there’s the rebuilding Commanders, a team with really nice pieces who should still struggle this year while the young guys acclimate to the NFL. Call me crazy, but I’m thinking this is one of the worst divisions in football (beside the putrid NFC South of course).
Therefore, while I’m not expecting the Giants to make the Playoffs, they gotta get back in the 7-8 win range. Daniel Jones is in “prove it” mode – and we all saw how that played out when he was in a similar situation for 2022.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with UFC 303 bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks
Season-Long Regular Season Wins – Team Props (Futures):
Pick: Baltimore Ravens Under 11.5 Wins (-158) (BetMGM) 0.5u
Pick: New York Giants Over 6.5 Wins (+120) (Bet365) 0.5u