14th Edition: Low Expectations for High Skill WR’s
The NFL Season has officially kicked off – but that doesn’t mean we can’t sneak a few more season-long future picks in before everyone gets on the gridiron for Sunday. We’ll only have 1 (!) more free article (after this one) coming with another 2 Futures bets locked and loaded prior to Sunday. If you haven’t taken a look at the previous articles in the series (they’re below), the premise is that each week to this point (since June 18), we’ve scoured the NFL Season-Long Futures lines for value picks before the season starts.
We had the first edition, Rookie QB’s, the second edition, New Offensive Coordinator Magic, the third edition, Overvalued Pass-Catchers, the fourth edition, Changes in the Trenches, the fifth edition, Don’t Run Forest, the sixth edition, I’m Getting Old, the seventh edition, Do My Eyes Deceive Me, the eight edition, I Don’t Buy Hype Mothafucka I Sell It, the ninth edition, The Books Have Swung Back, the tenth edition, 1,000 Yard Receivers, the eleventh edition, 1,000 Yard Rushers, the twelfth edition, AFC Super Stack, and the thirteenth edition, NFC Super Stack. As I said in the original article: make sure to manage your bankroll. Each bet for me is a half unit ($50), and we will end up with 30 total bets before the season starts ($1500 total) – so a lot will be invested prior to the season. Regardless, you can decide your unit-size, and this should give you some extra juice throughout the season, keeping the interest up all the way to the final whistle.
In this, the 14th edition of the series, we’ll be targeting some more pass-catchers with the “player receiving yards regular season” market – as it seems primed for some Overs. These guys may be a bit different when it comes to “player profiles” and experience – but I expect both guys to eat up a ton of targets with high receiving yardage upside. For one of these guys, 1,000 yards receiving has been the standard since he entered the league, providing production with some of the worst starting QB’s to grace the league. The other guy is a Sophomore who struggled last year in providing steady production – yet much of that can be attributed to the way he was utilized in the offensive scheme. So, without further ado, let’s get to the picks.
Previous Articles in Series:
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
Season-Long Receiving Yards – Player Props (Futures)
Pick: DJ Moore Over 975.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 0.5u Bet365
The disrespect for Mr. Moore has grown throughout the offseason, where Bet365 initially had him priced evenly at Over 1,000 yards. Now, the juice has shifted back Under 1,000 yards – and the number is just too good to pass up.
First of all – I get the line. While DJ consistently puts up 1,000 yard seasons like it’s the most boring thing he could do, there is a lot of “new” coming into this Bears offence. Let’s start with the “threats” to DJ’s production.
Threat #1: Rookie QB. That’s right, in case you haven’t heard, the Nail Painting Assassin, Caleb Williams, went #1 overall in the Draft to the Bears. This guy is regarded as a “generational” talent with explosive playmaking ability coupled with creativity that only parallels prime Johnny Manziel. The guy is special. However, perception leads the market to believe that a Rookie gunslinger should impact DJ negatively when it comes to receiving yardage. In my eyes, the impact is only positive when compared with what he had to deal with at QB last year.
The knock on Rookie QB’s has always been their inability to convert passing touchdowns – as Rookie QB passing touchdown leaders end up much lower in the NFL ranks when compared to Rookie QB passing yardage leaders. Take last year for example. CJ Stroud was T-8th in NFL Rookie QB History with 23 passing touchdowns last year. Where did he finish when compared to the League leaders? 13th in the NFL, with 13 TD’s separating him from the leader. Meanwhile, CJ Stroud was 3rd in NFL Rookie QB History with 4,108 passing yards last year. Where did he finish when compared to the League leaders? 8th in the NFL, only 500 yards behind the leader. 13 TD’s behind the league leader vs 500 yards behind the league leader …. the disparity is quite clear, and this trend applies to multiple Rookie QB’s including Andrew Luck and Baker Mayfield. It’s clear that when it comes to passing yardage, Rookie QB’s are likely to be closer to league-average. With Caleb Williams slinging the pigskin to DJ this year – expect regression in touchdowns, not yardage. I’m comfortable with this threat to production – possibly even encouraged.
Threat #2: More mouths to feed at WR. This point is the hardest obstacle to overcome in my opinion. But let’s just take a look at DJ’s production last year to get a gauge on what we’re working with. DJ put up 1,364 receiving yards on 136 targets. Pretty fucking good, right? DJ was the only option in the offence, as he almost had the same amount of targets as the next 2 on the list combined (Kmet and Mooney combined for 151 targets). However, that production was with a poor throwing QB in Justin Fields, and CHI was 31st in the league in pass-play percentage (51.3%). They did not throw the ball AT ALL – yet DJ still ate. Now, the Bears have a new OC in Shane Waldron calling the plays (the OC for Seattle last year). Guess what his pass-play percentage was with the Seahawks? 5th most in the NFL at 61.6%. So, the current situation is: (a) the Bears should be throwing the ball a lot more, (b) there should be more room for DJ out there with CB’s worried about the other WR options in Keenan Allen and Odunze, and (c) the Rookie QB should be better at delivering the ball than Justin Fields. Geno Smith had 570 pass attempts in his big year with Waldron as the OC with the Seahawks – so if DJ even gets 100 targets from Caleb – the math says he will be over 1,000 receiving yards:
- 1,364 receiving yards in 2023 on 136 targets = 10.02 receiving yards/target
- 10.02 yards/targets x 100 targets = 1,002.9 receiving yards
It all adds up – and DJ obviously has the ability to get there with 1,000 receiving yard seasons in 4 of the 6 years he’s been in the league.
Threat #3: The defence will be too good. This is always a concern when projecting WR production. After all, if the defence performs well and limits points against, there’s less of a need to throw the ball. While I expect the Bears defence to be pretty good – they shouldn’t be worldbeaters at limiting offensive production.
I can’t take any digs at their Secondary and Linebackers. Jaylen Johnson is a bonafide CB1, Brisker is one of the best young Safeties in the league, and Tremaine and TJ Edwards man the middle of the field with great athleticism. Chicago actually ranked #1 in run defence last year, surprising the hell out of me and everyone that thought this team was down bad. The thing is – the defence still has a gaping hole when it comes to the pass rush.
Yes, the addition of Montez Sweat last year at the trade deadline helped the pass rush to an extent. The fact still remains: Chicago finished last year 31st in the NFL in sacks (30). They continuously failed to get pressure on the QB, leading to pass-heavy teams having more success against them early in the season. While things got better as the season went on, there’s still a good possibility that QB’s will have too much time to pick apart this great secondary – leading to a great defence on paper performing at an average level. Even with the Bears defence performing as a Top 10 unit, the points won’t exactly be flowing on offence due to the aforementioned difficulty with Rookie QB’s throwing TD’s. We may be in store for some low-scoring games – but the impact on DJ’s receiving yard production should be minimal.
So, when you look at the big picture, it would really be quite shocking to see DJ go Under 1,000 yards receiving. I’m betting against that, and I suggest you do too.
Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 775.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 0.5u Bet365
That’s right – I already took the DK Metcalf Over receiving yards in a previous article – now we have the other side of the coin. Fact of the matter is: I believe that this passing offence will bounce back to 2022-levels of production when Geno Smith won the Comeback Player of the Year award. Let’s get into why.
JSN last year: a pretty big disappointment. He was the first WR off the board at the 2023 NFL Draft and had huge expectations after an unreal Freshman season at OSU. But if you look below the surface of the meagre numbers (628 receiving yards), you’ll get an idea of why that was the case.
First point: JSN broke his wrist in the preseason last year. I don’t know if anyone remembers that, because he played a week later, but the impact of missed practices early in the season for a newcomer, coupled with limitations in catching the ball due to tightness and soreness following surgery, can’t be ignored. I mean, JSN only had 62 receiving yards through 4 games last year. It’s crucial for Rookies to get that early work in prior to the season starts, or their acclimation into the offence stalls. Now, JSN has had a full camp going into this year, and Seahawks Nation has been buzzing about his performances.
Second point: JSN was utilized horribly by ex-OC Shane Waldron. First off – Shane runs a lot of TE-heavy 12 and 13 personnel (only 2 WR’s on the field), and Lockett had that WR2 role locked in for the majority of the year despite clear regression in production and effectiveness. JSN played in the slot a lot (around 62% of the time) and he was rarely the primary read unless he was running a screen-play. Waldron’s system led to JSN producing a 6.1 yard average depth of target (ADOT), which ranked outside Top 60 in the league. ADOT is a very good indication of receiving yardage output, as the further the target goes, the more yards a WR is likely to get. Why was his ADOT so low? Well, it stems from Shane Waldron using him primarily as a “screen pass, line of scrimmage” weapon, as 33% of his targets came at, or behind, the line of scrimmage. The thing is – JSN is much more than a “bubble screen” WR, as he showed in his college tape (and some NFL games) that his route running is great-to-elite.
Now, the team moves on from Waldron calling the offence, with the reigns being handed over to Washington Huskies ex-playcaller Ryan Grubb. Grubb isn’t much for running the football, as he led Michael Penix to a 350+ pass yards/game average in his 2 years with the Huskies. He runs a lot more 3-WR sets, and new Head Coach Mike MacDonald is already coming out in camp talking up JSN as a “big piece” of the offence.
Even without JSN taking over the WR2 spot from Lockett (based on camp reports and what I saw last year, this is likely to happen), he’s still going to have an uptick in production. Further, if you eliminate the first 4 games of last year, JSN would have 566 receiving yards in 13 games. That pace would be 740 receiving yards in a 17 game season. He just has to be a little better than that to hit the Over here. I expect that to easily be the case.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with NFL and UFC bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
Season-Long Receiving Yards – Player Props (Futures)
Pick: DJ Moore Over 975.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 0.5u Bet365
Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 775.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 0.5u Bet365