12th Edition: AFC Super Stack
Can you believe that NFL Football is 2 days away? Well, better fucking believe it my friends. I am so pumped to get on my couch Thursday night to watch the Chiefs dismantle the Ravens! With only 2 days left until Thursday Night Kickoff and 5 days left until the first NFL Sunday, the articles in this series will be coming hot and heavy, as we’ll have 3 more free articles (after this one) coming with 6 Futures bets locked and loaded prior to the season starting. If you haven’t taken a look at the previous articles in the series (they’re below), the premise is that each week to this point (since June 18), we’ve scoured the NFL Season-Long Futures lines for value picks before the season starts.
We had the first edition, Rookie QB’s, the second edition, New Offensive Coordinator Magic, the third edition, Overvalued Pass-Catchers, the fourth edition, Changes in the Trenches, the fifth edition, Don’t Run Forest, the sixth edition, I’m Getting Old, the seventh edition, Do My Eyes Deceive Me, the eight edition, I Don’t Buy Hype Mothafucka I Sell It, the ninth edition, The Books Have Swung Back, the tenth edition, 1,000 Yard Receivers, and the eleventh edition, 1,000 Yard Rushers. As I said in the original article: make sure to manage your bankroll. Each bet for me is a half unit ($50), and we will end up with 30 total bets before the season starts ($1500 total) – so a lot will be invested prior to the season. Regardless, you can decide your unit-size, and this should give you some extra juice throughout the season, keeping the interest up all the way to the final whistle.
In this, the 12th Edition of the series, we’re looking at a little combo play with an AFC team on the brink of a breakout season (offensively at least). We’re stacking Over yardage totals for one of the best young QB’s in the league with a rookie WR that was seemingly lost in the shuffle with the stellar WR talent in this years’ Draft. I’ve had my eyes on this rookie since the draft, projecting him as a top 24 WR in production THIS YEAR based on a very enticing comparison with preseason usage only adding to the probability. The QB is a straight stud – but has suffered from poor coaching, early injury trouble, and poor OLine play, leading to a depressed yardage total line. Without further ado, let’s get to this mystery team and the breakout tandem that has me seeing green.
Previous Articles in Series
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
Season-Long Passing Yards – Player Props (Futures)
Pick: Trevor Lawrence Over 3,800.5 Passing Yards (-110) 0.5u Bet365
First of all – let’s all agree that TLaw is actually an Avatar put on earth to entertain the masses with his crazy athleticism and luscious hair.
Now that we got that out of the way – let’s get to the disrespect TLaw is facing this year with a yardage total line like this. I mean, sure, TLaw has over 4,000 passing yards in his last two seasons – “but let’s set the line at 3,800 because he lost Calvin Ridley”. New flash bookies – he didn’t have Calvin Ridley the year before (2022), and he was still very successful (actually putting up more passing yards than in 2023). Not only that, but the Jags OLine might actually be in a decent place going into this year (unlike last year, where their inability to protect Trevor led to ankle and shoulder injuries that limited production late into the year). With all of the context considered – this line is a joke – and we’re here to exploit it.
As I touched on above – we all know TLaw can put up the numbers required to hit this line. The offensive scheme requires TLaw to toss the pigskin while they gash teams on the ground with Etienne – and the Jags QB1 might have even more in the tank based on his end to last year. Before the bye last year, it seemed as though Lawrence was still adjusting to tweaks in the system in some ways, lacking production through the air while the run game took over and won the Jags games. In the 8 games before the bye, TLaw averaged 241.9 passing yards/game. Then, even as Trevor started to slow down with nagging injuries to end the year, he averaged 260.1 passing yards/game in the 8 games he played after the bye. That’s an absurd +20 yards/game more with increased comfortability in the offensive scheme and more opportunities. Remember, the Jags defence struggled after the bye last year:
- They had 18 turnovers through the first 8 weeks, then 11 for the last 9 weeks;
- They allowed 3.6 yards per carry the first 8 weeks, then 4.6 yards per carry the rest of the season; and
- Coverage grades fell-off for important DB’s like Darious Williams.
The team brought in a new DC, but they lost one of their better cornerbacks in Darious Williams, and the replacements outside of Arik Armstead aren’t all that inspiring. These guys will not be worldbeaters on the backend, and a bad defence = good for passing yards.
A key to Trevor getting past this passing yardage total: the OLine. This has been the biggest concern for the Jags since TLaw entered the league – and they were God awful last year. One thing that I’m counting on this year – Trevor shouldn’t have to worry as much about the protections, as FA addition at Center, Mitch Morse, will help a lot on that front with his years of experience on the Bills. Along with that added veteran presence are two starting Tackles that are still decently young in their careers (Robinson and Harrison) that’ve gained a lot more experience and chemistry after last year. If the injuries don’t pile on this unit like they did last year, they will be far and away better than their 23rd ranking on PFF suggests. Honestly, anything would probably be better than last year.
The last piece to this puzzle – the pass-catchers. I won’t start singing their praises too much here (as I’m going for the double-wrister, sandpaper finish on one of these guys with the next pick), but the WR room actually looks better to me this year (even without Calvin Ridley). You still have Christian Kirk as a very reliable slot WR, Gabe Davis as a field stretcher that will blow up the box score every third game, and Mr. Brian Thomas Jr. to bring everything together with disgusting speed and explosiveness. Oh, and he has a Top 5 receiving TE in case the outside guys have trouble getting open. It’s a good set of weapons – made even more appealing by the fact that 3-WR, 1 TE sets should have defences weak in the knees with all the options available to the Avatar.
All in all – TLaw just has to be as good as he was last year to hit this line. And he wasn’t even great last year compared to 2022. It’s the same play calling, with a similar defence, better weapons (imo), and better protection. Nail this one.
Season-Long Receiving Yards – Player Props (Futures)
Pick: Brian Thomas Jr. Over 750.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 0.5u Bet365
I’ve seen people getting on the BTJ hype train over the last few weeks – but I had this guy pegged as a stud right out of the draft. I’m not going to say that all comparisons are perfect – but I found this very interesting when it popped into my head. Let’s see if you can guess who the other guy is in this exercise. Both guys:
- Were the 2nd best WR’s on very talented LSU teams;
- Were taken in the 20’s in the NFL Draft;
- Were the 4th or 5th WR taken in the NFL Draft;
- Had similar knocks on their ability to separate and route running;
- Went to great situations with a bonafide QB1; and
- Had a stud QB in College
Any guesses? Well, the other man is that comparison is none other than the best WR in the league, Justin Jefferson. He had a College WR teammate that was projected as better in the NFL (Jamarr Chase, whereas BTJ contended with Malik Nabers), he was taken at #22 in the Draft (BTJ was at #23), he was the 5th WR taken in the Draft (BTJ was 4th), he went to a good situation with Kirk at QB in Minnesota, and he had Joe Burrow tossing him the pigskin in College (BTJ had #2 overall pick in the Draft Jayden Daniels). I mean, I know comparisons don’t always work (look at Terrace Marshall, ex-LSU standout WR, who was cut this year by the Panthers). However, with everything I’ve seen so far, this one has a very good chance of hitting.
I mean, did you guys see this man in the preseason? He had some amazing plays, and flashed that all-world ability + unreal speed he possesses with some deadly deep shots. I know it’s only pre-season, but it’s very encouraging to see a guy that did this at a high-level in College translate his play over to going against grown men that are pros in the League (albeit second and third stringers):
Another interesting point through the preseason so far – Christian Kirk has been left out of 3 WR sets in favour of BTJ and Gabe Davis. This happened last year as well, where Zay Jones and Calvin Ridley started in 2 WR sets to begin the preseason. The Jags clearly like their big, tall guys on the outside when it comes to scheming everything up. If that’s the case – I’m expecting BTJ to be the “Ridley” in that equation based on the inconsistency that Gabe Davis has shown through his whole career. We all know who Gabe is at this point: a burner that can get open on extended plays and puts up big numbers, but disappears at times. He will get his production – but I don’t expect him to be TLaw’s #1 or #2 target consistently. With Kirk relegated to slot duty, I imagine that BTJ gets that #2 target responsibility (at the very least), with room to grow as the season goes on.
In 2020, JJetta put up 1,400 receiving yards as a rookie WR. I might not expect that much with BTJ, but I’m definitely expecting him to go over 750 receiving yards with the opportunity that’s been put in front of him. Give him a look on the betting market and in your fantasy league. I don’t think you’ll be disappointed when all is said and done.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with NFL and UFC bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
Season-Long Passing Yards – Player Props (Futures)
Pick: Trevor Lawrence Over 3,800.5 Passing Yards (-110) 0.5u Bet365
Season-Long Receiving Yards – Player Props (Futures)
Pick: Brian Thomas Jr. Over 750.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 0.5u Bet365