10th Edition: 1,000 Yard Receivers
Training camp rolls on, preseason games are getting played ….. you know that means we’re close to the NFL Season! Plus Money’s NFL Futures Betting Article Series is back for anotha one with just over 2 weeks until NFL Kickoff. 6 more free articles coming in the next 2 weeks, with 12 Futures bets locked and loaded. If you haven’t taken a look at the previous articles in the series (they’re below), the premise is that each week (sometimes twice a week) leading up to the Regular Season, we scour the NFL Season-Long Futures lines for value picks before the season starts.
We had the first edition, Rookie QB’s, the second edition, New Offensive Coordinator Magic, the third edition, Overvalued Pass-Catchers, the fourth edition, Changes in the Trenches, the fifth edition, Don’t Run Forest, the sixth edition, I’m Getting Old, the seventh edition, Do My Eyes Deceive Me, the eight edition, I Don’t Buy Hype Mothafucka I Sell It, and the ninth edition, The Books Have Swung Back. As I said in the original article: make sure to manage your bankroll. Each bet for me is a half unit ($50), and we will end up with 30 total bets before the season starts ($1500 total) – so a lot will be invested prior to the season. Regardless, you can decide your unit-size, and this should give you some extra juice throughout the season, keeping the interest up all the way to the final whistle.
In the 10th edition, we’re going back to the pass-catchers. Bet365 just came out with some more prop markets for NFL Futures – and I really like the look of a certain market that has reasonable lines on two standout players. The market I’m referring to: Over 1,000 receiving yards. Doesn’t sound so tough, especially considering that notable 1,000-yard receivers from last year included: the ghost of Adam Thielen, Garrett Wilson with Zac Wilson, and Chris Godwin. While we are hoping for health with the two guys in this edition (they both have past-injury concerns), if they can stay on the field, they’ll easily cross the 1,000 yard mark. They’ve both had 1,000 yards receiving before, they’re both young, they’re both in good offences – and they’re both primed for exceptional seasons. So, with all that considered, let’s get into the analysis.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
Previous Articles in Series:
Season-Long Receiving Yards – Over 1,000 Yards – Player Props (Futures):
Pick: Jaylen Waddle Over 1,000 Receiving Yards (-115) 0.5u Bet365
Let’s just say it as it is: Jaylen Waddle is a very good wide receiver. Sure, he’s been put into a great situation with Head Coach McDaniels at the helm and Tua tossing lefty into 2” x 2” windows. But even before Miami became such a powerhouse on the offensive side of the ball – Waddle produced. And that’s without the tutelage of one of the best receivers (and babymakers) in the game, Tyreek Hill.
In the two years prior to McDaniels joining for the 2023 season, Jaylen averaged: 1,185.5 receiving yards on 89.5 receptions per season. He had over 1,000 yards in each season, and he stayed relatively healthy. Following the 2022 season, the Dolphins acquire Tyreek Hill. The offence changes to a high-flying, high-pace, well-oiled scoring machine. But ….. Jaylen only played in 14 games. He dealt with a concussion early in the 2023 season, coupled with a high ankle sprain in week 16. The thing is – he never really seemed to get into his groove throughout the year. Even when he played, he didn’t look as healthy as he had the previous two years. On top of that, there was always going to be some falloff with Tyreek joining the offence. But wait …. was there actually any falloff? The answer to that question may surprise you.
Last year, with only 14 games played, Jaylen ended up with 1,014 yards receiving on 72 catches. If you take that production and put it over a 17 game span (which is the number of games he played in 2022 when he had a career high 1,356 receiving yards), Waddle ends up with 1,231 receiving yards. So in reality, he actually wasn’t too far from his peak production even with the addition of Tyreek to the offence. So the question is – what’s changing this year that makes him less likely to get over 1,000 receiving yards?
I honestly can’t put my finger on it. The play-caller is still the same with McDaniels holding the playsheet – so the offence will still have incredibly creative play designs with high upside. The QB is still the same with Tua, who’s just getting better year-to-year. There really aren’t any more receiving options for Waddle to contend with, unless you’re worried about the ancient OBJ stealing his touches. The offensive line is slightly worse, which may limit Tua’s production to an extent. But the line’s still ranked 18th in the NFL going into the year (on PFF). The pace of the offence should be the same, the run-pass splits should be the same, and personnel will remain consistent. Yet the line for Waddle to get over 1,000 yards receiving (which he has done in each of his 3 years in the league) is almost a pick em’. C’mon now, don’t overthink this one.
Pick: Tee Higgins Over 1,000 Receiving Yards (+150) 0.5u Bet365
Ooooeee – we’re getting some real juice with this one. +150 is a pretty ridiculous line for a guy that I see as similar to Waddle. A great wide receiver, that’s in a great passing offence, with an alpha WR counterpart. They do share more than a few similarities. So why is his line this much wider than Waddle’s?
Health. Not only Tee’s health (he has never started more than 14 games in a year over his 4 years in the league, and only started 11 last year), but also the health of the guy slinging him the rock, Joe Burrow (missed half of last year with the elbow injury, and only played 10 games in 2020). If we weren’t concerned about that – this would be a lock. The thing is …. I’m willing to take the shot on Tee because even if he doesn’t stay healthy, he can still hit this line. Let’s see why that may be the case.
Well, one doesn’t have to look much further than Tee’s career stats to understand why he could still miss time and clear this line. In the three years prior to 2023, Tee had yardage totals of: 908, 1,109, and 1,029 (while only starting 14 games each year). He’s shown his potential upside on multiple occasions, and even with missed time, he’s passed the 1,000 yard barrier in both of the two seasons after he was a rookie.
Further, Higgins not only had to contend with Jamar Chase for targets, but also with the reliable slot-standout Tyler Boyd. I’m not saying Tee is going into the slot to take Boyd’s place (Boyd signed with the Titans), but with such a big question mark for the Bengals at WR3, I could see more looks going Tee’s way. On top of that, with Mixon gone from the backfield, I’m not sure Joe will be looking for dump-offs as regularly as he has in the past.
The cherry on top of this sundae: It’s Higgins contract year, and public opinion is that he won’t be back with the Bengals following this season. If he wants to get those big bucks on the open market (I mean, if Aiyuk was offered over $30 million/year, he definitely could), he’s going to have to produce. Burrow looks healthy so far, Higgins looks healthy so far, and the offence could be even more pass-heavy than past iterations. I’ll definitely take that shot on plus-money with Tee Higgs.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with UFC and PGA bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
Season-Long Receiving Yards – Over 1,000 Yards – Player Props (Futures):
Pick: Jaylen Waddle Over 1,000 Receiving Yards (-115) 0.5u Bet365
Pick: Tee Higgins Over 1,000 Receiving Yards (+150) 0.5u Bet365