Third Edition: Overvalued Pass-Catchers
13 weeks until NFL Kickoff; 13 more Futures articles (and 26 more Futures picks) for Plus Money. Welcome to my favourite betting article series, where each week leading up to the regular season, we scour the NFL Season-Long Futures lines for value picks before the season starts. We had the first edition, Rookie QB’s, followed by the second edition, New Offensive Coordinator Magic. As I said in the original article: make sure to manage your bankroll. Each bet for me is a half unit ($50), and we will end up with 30 total bets before the season starts ($1500 total) – so a lot will be invested prior to the season. Regardless, you can decide your unit-size, and this should give you some extra juice throughout the season, keeping the interest up all the way to the final whistle.
Okay, today we get to the third edition of the series: Overvalued Pass-Catchers. I have taken a deep run through the season-long receiving yard props on the market at Bet365, and pinpointed two spots where the books are expecting way too much from certain players. In addition to the overvalued totals, there’s always a cushion with injuries for season-long receiving yard Unders this early in the offseason. For these two guys to hit the Over totals – they’d have to play to their ceiling, while staying healthy for at least 15 games of the year. We don’t like to bet on that – so let’s dish out these piping-hot Under receiving yards season-long props.
Previous Articles in Series:
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
Season-Long Receiving Yards – Player Props (Futures)
Pick: Chris Olave Under 1200.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 0.5u
Whoa, whoa, whoa here bookies – I’m thinking Olave has a decent season too, but over 1200 yards?! It could happen, but the chances are definitely less than 50% – let me tell you why.
Starting with his past totals. He has been a very solid receiver since coming into the League. Two seasons over 1,000 yards, 120-140 targets a year, 65-80 receptions. The kid is no joke – and he has stayed relatively healthy (15 games played and 16 games played the last two years). But …. he’s never been over 1200 yards. Usually, you’re setting a line at a yardage total that the player has attained previously, unless you expect some sort of massive upgrade that will help said player (think Drake London getting Kirk Cousins after going through the Ridder-show). For Olave – there is no upgrade – and if anything, there’s a downgrade.
His QB is still the corpse of Derek Carr, finishing with his lowest passing yards per game (228.1) since his rookie year in 2014. The O-Line is still a steaming pile (ranking dead-last in the 2024 projected O-Line ranks on FTNFantasy). On top of that, the only possible receiver that could open things up for Olave (Michael Thomas) is gone, where he now has to rely on Rashid Shaheed eating up coverage so he can get free. I don’t know about you, but I expect a lot of double-teams (to be fair, he has been the focal point of the passing game since his rookie year).
The one thing they did do was hire a new OC in Klint Kubiak. I don’t know, maybe that’s why the bookies are expecting this jump for Olave Gardens. And fair play to Klint, he was the passing game coordinator for San Fran last year, where Purdy and his WR’s thrived. The only thing is – the SF passing game thrives so much because: (i) the protection is so good, (ii) the weapons are so good, and (iii) the run game is so good, it opens up passing lanes. None of these three points apply to the New Orleans’ offence. So in reality, do you trust Klint to turn this ship around, when he had previously relied upon a balanced target-distribution with insane skill-position players and anchors in the trenches? Don’t forget, this was the same guy who was the Passing Game Coordinator and QB’s Coach in Denver for Russ Wilson’s first year there (pee-fucking-yew).
I mean, just look at a guy like Mike Evans (maybe some foreshadowing going on here). His line is 1050.5 receiving yards. He has a decade in the league, and he has never been under 1000 yards receiving. I get the age aspect of Evans vs Olave – but that’s not worth 150 yards extra for Olave’s total when Evans has been healthy his whole career.
This one is just straight confusing, and it’s a case of the books projecting a player to have a career year when the situation hasn’t really changed. Sure, I’ll take the Under with some injury-possibility baked in.
Pick: Devonta Smith Under 1050.5 Receiving Yards (+110) 0.5u
Okay – this line is more realistic than Olave’s. Nonetheless, the signs just aren’t pointing up for Devonta – and the new OC in Philly is where I’ll start with that sentiment.
On its face, the signing of Kellen Moore as OC is deadly. Proven passing game entities are hard to come by at OC – but Kellen definitely has that juice. Dak Prescott had nearly 5,000 passing yards and 4,500 passing yards in his two healthy years with Mooresy running the show in Dallas, aided by a good run game and an amazing offensive line. The Eagles O-Line at this stage, with the retirement of Kelce, is still a Top 10 unit – but not a clear Top 5 unit like Dallas had with Tyron Smith, Zack Martin, and La’el Collins (a stud at that point). The Eagles run game with Saquon is similar in status to that of the Cowboys in 2020 with Prime Zeke. So, there are similarities in those two senses.
Here’s where things get different: Jalen Hurts is a good passer, but he isn’t Dak Prescott-level in terms of volume and yardage. Now, you’re obviously thinking “well, the Eagles used Hurts more as a runner, and Kellen won’t do that”. Why the fuck wouldn’t he? Dak was not a mobile QB like Hurts is (highest rushing total was 357 yards in 2017 – before Kellen, and his rushing totals weren’t much different after that). Justin Herbert (Kellen’s QB last year) – we all know that guy is a pocket-passing assassin, not a scrambler. Kellen would be a numbskull not to utilise Hurts mobility on RPO’s, and Hurts is bound to scramble more than previous Kellen Moore QB’s. I’m not expecting a dip to Hurts’ passing production – but I’m not expecting an increase from the 3,700-3,800 passing yards he’s had the past two years.
Here’s where things get tricky: The secondary pass-catchers in Kellen Moore offences have not had success:
- 2020 Dallas Cowboys: Ceedee Lamb (935 receiving yards, 16 gp)
- 2021 Dallas Cowboys: Amari Cooper (865 receiving yards, 15 gp)
- 2022 Dallas Cowboys: Noah Brown (555 receiving yards, 16 gp)
- 2023 LA Chargers: Josh Palmer (581 receiving yards, 11 gp)
I have no doubt AJ Brown will get his (all of Kellen Moore’s WR1’s thrive, being over 1,100 yards at a minimum). But Devonta – with the likes of Ceedee and Amari being listed above – will likely see a reduction in volume and yardage. He has been Over this yardage total in his last two years (1,066 receiving yards in 2023, 1,196 receiving yards in 2022), but it’s been damn close to this line. With even a slight reduction – he goes Under.
The chances of this only increase with Goedert entering the season healthy. I know, he’s an injury prone player – but he missed three games last year, and five games the year before. If he only misses one game, the targets will drop for Smith – as is evidenced by Kellen’s use of TE’s when he has competent players at that position (Dalton Schultz had multiple seasons over 600 receiving yards in those Cowboys’ offences).
All in all, I’m still thinking Devonta has a decent season. Just not the same kind of year he’s had previously, where the target distribution was more even, Goedert was missing, the O-Line was better, and the running back was worse. There’s also the fact that Devonta is one of the slightest WR’s in the NFL at 6’0’’, 170 lbs. He doesn’t have a significant injury history – but that is always a concern at Smith’s size.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with NHL Playoff bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks
Season-Long Receiving Yards – Player Props (Futures)
Pick: Chris Olave Under 1200.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 0.5u
Pick: Devonta Smith Under 1050.5 Receiving Yards (+110) 0.5u