Second Edition: Offensive Coordinator Magic
Okay guys and gals, we are back with the second edition of Season-Long Player Props in our new betting article series! If you didn’t catch the first edition (Rookie QBs, link below), the premise of the series is to attack Futures Player Props early in the NFL Offseason, where every week (for the 14 remaining weeks until the start of the NFL season), I’ll be providing two sneaky season-long picks so we can keep the excitement going right until kickoff. As I said in that original article: make sure to manage your bankroll. Each bet for me is a half unit ($50), and we will end up with 30 total bets before the season starts ($1500 total) – so a lot will be invested prior to the season. Regardless, you can decide your unit-size, and this should give you some extra juice throughout the season, keeping the interest up all the way to the final whistle (and past the point where your team’s playoff dreams get crushed).
Today, we are moving on to the second edition in the series: Offensive Coordinator Magic. We’ve seen this time and time again: a new play-caller comes in, and a skill position players’ statistical output skyrockets. Whatever it may be: scheme fit, offensive tendencies, better teaching; a new set of eyes just seems to do the trick. Whether it be Baker Mayfield last year with Canales, AJ Brown a few years ago with the Eagles, or David Monty moving on to Detroit – it can happen at any position. In this article, we have two skill players going Over their total yards, which can be a risky proposition given the possibility of injury. But with some of these lines ….. it already seems like the books are baking some missed-time in, and those are the ones we’re attacking today. Without further ado, let’s move to our first candidate, the mayo-loving, coffee drinking, banana-peel eater – Will Levis.
Previous Articles in the Series:
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
Season-Long Passing Yards – Player Props (Futures)
Pick: Will Levis Over 3575.5 Passing Yards (+100) 0.5u
I’ve seen this line slowly creeping upwards – so I had to jump on it while I still could. There are people in the NFL Community that are definitely in support of the Levis Breakout – count me among them. Let’s just set the stage to get an understanding of what is needed for Willy to get Over this Total:
- 3600 Passing Yards / 17 games played (if healthy) – 212 Passing Yards/Game
Wow. So Levis needs just 212 Passing Yards a game (if he plays the whole season) for him to smash this Over. Pretty damn easy, considering Zach Wilson (204.7 PY/GM) and Aidan O’Connell (201.6 PY/GM) almost got to that level with severely limited skill-sets/offences. But alright, say he doesn’t play a whole season – which could easily be the case given the volatility of health in the NFL. And there‘s also the fact that Levis missed time last year due to injuries, and was only at about 200 passing yards/game when he did play.
But there are key distinctions to the Levis injury/performance that have to be considered: (i) his O-line last year was doggy-doo-doo, (ii) his receivers outside of Nuke were shite, and (iii) the offence was limited in its passing attack. When you consider all that – it’s amazing he stayed out on the field as much as he did, with half-decent rookie stats to show for it.
The crazy thing is – all three of these things are different now (for the better). There is: (i) a much improved OLine with a Top 10 Draft Pick to anchor at Tackle, (ii) a stacked WR room with the additions of Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd, and (iii) a new offensive scheme with more pass-friendly playcalling. It honestly couldn’t line up any better for the kid.
As I said, the team added the best pure RT in the draft in Latham, and they still have a stud Sophomore at Guard in Skoronski, and some great Free Agent additions in Lloyd Cushenberry from Denver (only two sacks allowed in last two years) and Saahdiq Charles (depth guard). With (at least) two new starting pieces on the OLine (and prestigious pieces at that in the likes of Cushenberry and Latham), they should be a lot better. But hold the phone – we have Coach Callahan calling, and he’s here to whip this group into shape.
For those who don’t know, the Titans hired former Bengals OC Brian Callahan to be Head Coach, son of the Legendary OLine Coach Bill Callahan. Bill is a legend in the NFL for getting the most out of his OLines – just look at his last stop in Cleveland for proof. With Brian coming over, it was guaranteed that his dad would follow. So all in all – it’s going to be impossible for this Titan’s OLine to regress (in all likelihood, the progression is going to blow your socks off)
The additions of Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd speak for themselves. While Ridley was a little feast-or-famine last year, he will serve much better in a 1A/1B role with the more skilled Hopkins. Boyd will always be that reliable guy in the slot with sticky hands. So Levis now has those two guys as weapons as opposed to …. Chris Moore and Treylon Burks? That’s going to help Levis out a ton, as we know that separation is king in the NFL for passing success.
Then – the offensive scheme and play-calling. We all saw what Callahan did with sick receivers and solid QB play in Cincinnati. Now, I’m not saying Will is the level QB that Burrows is – but you don’t have to be much better than average to get to 3,600 passing yards (look at Geno Smith last year with over 3,600 Passing Yards in a down season). Add in the fact that the Titan’s have moved on from Derrick Henry – and there has to be a bigger focus on the passing game.
I’ll take my chances with the guy who helped run the Bengals high-flying passing attack, an average (at least) OLine, and a Top 5 WR room in the NFL. Hit it.
Season-Long Receiving Yards – Player Props (Futures)
Pick: Diontae Johnson Over 825.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 0.5u
We all watched the Panthers last year, right? Well, they had a few glaring weaknesses that were evident to anyone watching. The OLine was very bad. The play-calling was terrible. But nothing seemed to be worse than the Panther’s WR room and their lack of separation from opposing defenders. Poor Bryce Young; set up to fail like a certain ex-Bears QB I know …..
So, what did Carolina go out and do this Offseason? Well, they added Damien Lewis (guard depth) and Robert Hunt (stud guard) to help with the OLine. They replaced the coaching staff, overhauling almost everyone and bringing in a guy (Canales) to call offensive plays after reviving the careers of two washed QBs (Mayfield and Geno). And then …. they added one of the best separation guys in the NFL in Johnson for pennies on the dollar. This offence went from “pew-yew” to “meh, average” in one offseason – not something to be scoffed at given the circumstances of the team (their lack of draft capital in particular).
I mean, Diontae led all NFL WR’s in his rookie year with a 2.39 yards of target separation – and while this number may have decreased recently, a lot of that correlated with a diva number one receiver entering the Steelers WR room (Pickens), which reportedly “decreased Diontae’s confidence”, and a QB that just wasn’t good enough (Pickett). Regardless, Diontae was still Over this yardage total in three straight years following his rookie year (923, 1161, and 882 receiving yards respectively). Sure, he may have faltered a bit last season in the yardage total department (717 receiving yards), but he only started 11 games, and that Steelers offence was quite the mess as the season progressed.
Now, he’s the de-facto number one target in a better offensive system (Canales vs Matt Canada is really not even comparable), where a 33-year-old Adam Thielen produced over 1,000 receiving yards just last year. Barring an early-season injury, this is a guaranteed hit with situation/skill considered. Let’s rock.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with NHL Playoff game bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks
Season-Long Passing Yards – Player Props (Futures)
Pick: Will Levis Over 3575.5 Passing Yards (+100) 0.5u
Season-Long Receiving Yards – Player Props (Futures)
Pick: Diontae Johnson Over 825.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 0.5u