Well – that was a hell of a Saturday for any Football fan on the planet (no thanks to the Chiefs). Houston did about all they could given the circumstances in that game (i.e. the refs), and Washington really brought the heat on the road against what seemed to be an unbeatable Lions team. All told – it’s hard to be disappointed about Part One of the Divisional Round. We had picked both spreads correctly in that last article – but missed on the player props. Regardless, anyone tapping in on this article is sure to be a big football fan – and it only gets better from here.
This week – we’re going to be doing something a little different. Instead of just breaking down player props – we’re going to break down each game through the weekend, providing in-depth analysis and advanced statistics to give us an idea of how the game might play out. That will be followed by a game pick (on the spread), followed by my favourite player prop on the board with a short break-down to explain the reasoning.
Without further ado – let’s get to it.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
*All data from PFF.com premium subscription.
2024 NFL Divisional Round Playoffs: Divisional Round Sunday Slate Game Breakdowns, Game Picks, and Best Player Prop
Game One: Los Angeles Rams vs Philadelphia Eagles, 3:00 P.M. ET
Weather Impact:
- Set to be a good ol’ snow game. 90% chance of precipitation and 1-3 inches of snow expected around gametime, along with winds that will increase in intensity as the game goes on. All in all – weather will have a moderate-to-significant impact on this one.
Key Injuries for LAR
- LAR OT Alaric Jackson (Questionable, expected to play)
- LAR DT Bobby Brown (Questionable, expected to play)
- LAR CB Akhello Witherspoon (Questionable, expected to play)
Key Injuries for PHI
- N/A
Game Breakdown
PHI Offence vs LAR Defence
Well – here it is. The unstoppable force meets the immovable object: where it’s strength vs strength between the PHI OLine and the Rams pass-rush unit.
We’ll start with the Rams defensive front – where a lot of credit is due to McVay, Snead, and Co. regarding their talent identification in the draft, scheme fit awareness, and overall player development. Sniping Byron Young & Kobie Turner in last year’s draft was some feat (both selected in the 3rd round). But the Rams brass didn’t just rest on their laurels after such a huge result – as they followed it up by taking FSU teammates Jared Verse and Braden Fiske in the first 2 rounds of the 2024 draft. Well – Verse is about to be DROY, and those other 3 pass-rushers each had double-digit sack totals with at least 34 QB pressures on the year. Not too fucking shabby.
BUT – this Eagles OLine has been an elite unit for a while now – and even with some new additions through the last few years, they’ve been able to remain dominant in the trenches. The bargain they got on Tackle-turned-Guard Mekhi Becton was absurd, as his unrealized talent has really shown through once inserted into a solid system with veteran linemates. Then – you have the Kelce replacement himself, Cam Jurgens, absolutely holding his own on the interior. It’s the biggest OLine in the League – by a mile (every Lineman outside of Jurgens is at least 6’6” and 325 lbs – and Jurgens is 6’3”, 300 lbs). Good Lord those are some beefy boys.
So this is what it comes down to – the DLine that was 3rd in the NFL in QB Hurry % vs the OLine that graded as the 6th best pass blocking unit and the 5th best run blocking unit according to PFF. So – who wins the stalemate?
In my mind – it has to be the Eagles and their stellar blocking unit – but on one condition. That condition: the Eagles stick to the run and keep Rams pass-rushers wary of shooting gaps downfield on their way to Hurts. It may be that the Rams defensive front comes out with a few ground-game stops to start this game. BUT – even if this happens, the Rams D will wear down eventually in a very physical & cold game where the opposing OLine outsizes their biggest pass-rusher across the board. That being said – if PHI continues to get themselves into 3rd and longs because they refuse to stick to the run throughout the game – they could end up with some serious problems.
Jalen Hurts – not really a guy that’s going to dissect a defence all over the field. The advantage he does have: his mobility. It’s going to be a bit different for the Rams when comparing taking down Sam Darnold vs taking down Hurts if/when the opportunity presents itself. While Hurts will always hit those 2-3 long-shots over the course of the game – there really isn’t too much more I’d be worried about if I was the Rams defence – aside from him breaking the pocket for big rushing gains.
End of the day – it comes down to this:
- If the Rams defence gets some early stops against Saquon and Co. – the Eagles cannot get discouraged and rely on the pass game to get them through this one. That’s even more-so given the weather conditions – as it will be hard for PHI to employ the deep ball continuously with the wind being just enough to affect the ball’s trajectory.
- If the Rams do get into the backfield on clear passing downs – they have to take advantage and drop Hurts for a loss. Easier said than done – but once you get negative plays stacked up, the PHI offence really is hamstrung with its current construction.
All told – I expect PHI to move the ball on offence, though they may have struggles to start the game. Once Saquon has run the ball 10-15 times, holes will start to open up, and the PHI offence should be rolling come the last half of the 3rd quarter and on.
PHI Defence vs LAR Offence
This one might surprise you – as I believe the Rams offence is built for the conditions and schematic tendencies lined up for this game. Let me tell you why.
The first point – the weather. Usually, it would be easy math in determining that a team for LA wouldn’t have a chicken’s shit chance in hell of holding up in 0 degree weather with snow & wind. BUT – this Rams offence is predicated on running through the air, using intense motion all over the line of scrimmage to give Stafford pre-snap reads with multiple options and a lot of play-action. That kind of strategy will get you very far in windy, cold conditions – along with a feasible run game that keeps the offence moving downfield. Well – the Rams have one of the best cold-weather RBs in the League with Notre Dame alum Kyren Williams as the bell-cow. He’s tough as nails, and everything he’s gotten in this league is earned, not given (not surprising given he was a 5th round pick in the NFL draft).
The only issue is – this goddamn Eagles defensive front is so solid. Jalen Carter and Jordan David bring so much juice on the interior of the line (where the Rams have had trouble through the year); Sweat and Nolan Smith bring intense speed off the edge; and Nakobe Dean + Zack Baun remaining agile and nasty at the second level. There’s a reason the Eagles defence was 4th in PFF rush defence grading and 2nd in PFF pass-rush grading.
And yet – that hasn’t even been the most impressive part of this PHI defence. That would be their secondary, where the Eagles were 1st in PFF coverage grading through the Regular Season. Not enough credit can be given to the Rookie CB-tandem of Cooper Dejean and Quinyon Mitchell – as they’ve turned a perennial weakness for past Eagles defences into its greatest strength. Don’t forget – Big Play Slay is also there to shut down any opposing WR1.
When these two units come together – it’s really going to be about gameplanning and play calling. McVay is an absolute wizard with a playsheet in his hands, and if the Rams offence employs a gameplan similar to how they approached the MIN game (all play-action short-to-intermediate pass plays early, followed by the ground game) – they should have some success. However – things can get off the rails quick if PHI starts to get pressure on Stafford with straight dropbacks – and it’s likely in that scenario that the LAR ground game doesn’t get going to begin with.
Game (Spead) Pick: PHI Eagles -6.5 (-115) via Bet365 – 1.15 units
Another pretty significant spread in the Divisional Round – but this one seems more accurate than the others. If PHI wears down this LAR defence with the ground game – they could run away with this one. While I think the Rams defence can cause some difficulty for Hurts in the pass game with some good pressure and an improved coverage unit – it’s possible that the defence gets put on its heels with the fear of Saquon ever-lurking in their minds. I think the Eagles keep things moving and lock up time-of-possession like it’s going out of style.
Meanwhile – I envision the Rams offence having some success early – but eventually faltering to the more physical team at home. The Rams OLine just can’t dominate the L.O.S like the other elite units in the NFL, and though Stafford is a stud – he’s not a game-changer like Lamar or Josh Allen. Final score prediction: 27 PHI – 13 LAR
Top Player Prop: Saquon Barkley Over 112.5 Rush Yards (-110) via Coolbet – 1.10 units
We all know the story with Saquon at this point – guy’s straight rank. He now has over 2,100 rush yards on the season following his 119 yard performance last week in the Wild Card – and he’s gone for 100+ rush yards in 7 of his last 8 games. Gross.
That’s not even mentioning what he did to the Rams on their home turf in Week 12 (255 rush yards) – and now he has to carry the PHI offence on his back with nasty weather conditions on his homefield. There is no line high enough for me not to consider Saquon in what will be the biggest game of his career.
And while the Rams defence held Aaron Jones in check last week – there are two key differences this time out: 1. The PHI OLine is miles better than the MIN OLine, and 2. Saquon is one of one. That’s enough reason for me to continue riding this stud against a Rams defence that allowed over 100 rush yards per game to RBs through 18 games.
Game Two: Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills, 7:00 P.M. ET
Weather Impact:
- Another cold game, with the weather hanging around 0 to 5 degrees fahrenheit with the wind chill (-17 to -15 degrees celsius) and some snow (though the majority of snow isn’t expected until after the game). Wind will be moderate (5-15 mph).
Key Injuries for BAL
- BAL WR Zay Flowers (Doubtful, unlikely to play)
Key Injuries for BUF
- N/A
Game Breakdown
BUF Offence vs BAL Defence
Here we go – the most anticipated matchup of the weekend caps things off on a chilly Sunday Night. MVP vs MVP – who comes out on top? Well, I believe it’s the QB that can better take advantage of the opposing defence – so how does J.A and the Bills offence stack up against this Ravens defence?
Well – in the middle of the season, I would’ve said they stack up pretty well against the BAL defence. However – ever since the Ravens made the switch with All-Pro Safety Kyle Hamilton moving to FS – they’ve been so solid against the pass.
Up until Week 10 of the Regular Season – this Ravens defence allowed 8 of 10 QBs they faced to go for 260+ pass yards. That – is pretty damn bad. But then they made the switch, getting Rookie CB Nate Wiggins more involved on the outside with Roquan + Hamilton catering each defensive play call to limiting opposing options. From Week 11 through Wild Card Weekend – the BAL defence limited 7 of 8 QB to 220 pass yards or lower. That’s some change – and it’s not like they slack-off when faced with mobile QBs, as they’ve only allowed 1 QB all year to exceed 30 rush yards.
The answers were easy for the Bills offence against DEN last week: run the ball continuously to stymie the best pass rush in the League. And they executed that gameplan to perfection, running for 210 yards as a team with Jimmy Cook lighting the lamp on his way to 120 rush yards.
However – this BAL defence is not the DEN defence. They have some of the best run stuffers in the game, which should be apparent based on their 2nd graded rush defence on PFF while allowing the least rush yards per game to RBs through the season (61.56). Now – consider that the BUF OLine has the 14th graded run blocking unit on PFF – and you start to see the problem. Styles make fights – and with the Ravens D (i) limiting opposing passing production, (ii) stopping any QB from gashing them on the ground, and (iii) preventing any pure rush attack from getting going – how do you think this will turn out?
Allen will have his 2-4 huge plays throughout the game – but with the Bills offence lacking the ability to consistently move the ball down the field with small chunks, I’m highly doubtful that they can keep up in this game.
BAL Offence vs BUF Defence
The reason I’m highly doubtful BUF can keep up in this one? The mismatch in this aspect of the matchup.
I mean – has this BUF defence really impressed anyone to end the year? That was a decent performance against Bo Nix – without a doubt. BUT – that was a Rookie QB going on the road for his first playoff game lacking a feasible run game. So, in other words – the Broncos offence (inexperienced and one dimensional) was everything that Baltimore is not.
From Week 9 of the Regular Season, the BUF defence allowed 6 of 9 RB rooms to go for 85+ rush yards against them, including the Jets RBs (106 rush yards), the Rams RBs (121 rush yards), and the 49ers RBs (149 rush yards). Yes – the Bills dealt with some injuries through the year, so that could have had an impact on those numbers. But even so – if they’re giving up that much production to opposing RBs as recently as a few weeks ago – what chance do they stand when going against KIng Henry?
And it’s not just Henry this defence has to worry about – Lamar in the Playoffs has some wheels he’s just waiting to break out given the right matchup. Well – look no further than this one, as the Bills gave up 54 rush yards to Lamar earlier in the season, and they just allowed Bo Nix to go for 43 rush yards in the Wild Card Round.
Thing is – I don’t even think I need to address how BAL pass-catchers will do against a decent Bills secondary – as that won’t be the focal point of the matchup. The Ravens will run the ball at such a successful clip that any passes mixed in will either lead to Lamar 5-10 yard scrambles or short-to-intermediate receptions by BAL TEs. Why would they target the TEs specifically? Because the Bills DEF allowed opposing TEs to go for an average of 77 receiving yards per game in their last 4 outings of the season. That would be the worst mark in the NFL if you projected that to a season-long basis.
I keep hearing that Matt Milano’s return marks the saviour of an otherwise mediocre LB core – and fair enough with him being the top graded Bills defender in both PFF coverage grading and PFF rush defence grading last week. But it’s one thing to do that against a DEN offence just finding its footing amongst the elite – it’s another to perform at a similar level against a seasoned BAL offence that’s as hungry as any team I’ve seen to get to a Super Bowl.
Game (Spead) Pick: BAL Ravens Moneyline (-110) via 3ET – 1.10 units
How can you not get romantic about Playoff football? End of the day – this matchup is about as close as it gets to a pick em’ (as is indicated by the line). However – I think this game comes down to one simple thing: the Ravens will be able to run the ball better than Buffalo. Sometimes, we can lose ourselves in overanalyzing a pick to the point where everything gets fuzzy. And then at the end of the day – one team comes out and does exactly what everyone thought they would do – with excellent execution, regardless of the narratives surrounding the game. The Ravens defence has been great in all respects through the end of the year – and the Bills defence has been mediocre. The Ravens offence has been firing on all cylinders to end the year – and the Bills have been relying on the run game. With all of that considered – it’s impossible to fade Baltimore in this one.
Top Player Prop: Mark Andrews Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-110) via Bet365 – 1.10 units
Well – who else is eating in this matchup when it comes to BAL pass-catchers? Though Andrews has had a disappointing season based on total output – he’s still the go to guy in key situations for this BAL offence.
Zay Flowers isn’t likely to suit up in this one, and Rashod Bateman will have to contend with BUF’s top coverage defenders as the only man in town with proven production. Lamar should get his on the ground, and Henry should ram the ball down the Bills D collective throat – leaving only one safety blanket for Lamar to rely on in the middle of the field when they mix in pass plays. With such a minimal line and Andrews proven Playoff production through the years – it’s easy to envision Andrews getting enough looks to surpass this line.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with more NFL picks. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
Game (Spead) Pick: PHI Eagles -6.5 (-115) via Bet365 – 1.15 units
Top Player Prop: Saquon Barkley Over 112.5 Rush Yards (-110) via Coolbet – 1.10 units
Game (Spead) Pick: BAL Ravens Moneyline (-110) via 3ET – 1.10 units
Top Player Prop: Mark Andrews Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-110) via Bet365 – 1.10 units