Well, that was a pretty hit-or-miss Wild Card weekend with only one close game across the board – which correlated with our Player Props falling short due to a mix of poor reads and funky gamescripts. Regardless – we still came away with a 6-11 record, as we really got an up-close-and-personal view at how everything can change come Playoff time. Still a very fun weekend – but the results are what they are.
This week – we’re going to be doing something a little different. Instead of just breaking down player props – we’re going to break down each game through the weekend, providing in-depth analysis and advanced statistics to give us an idea of how the game might play out. That will be followed by a game pick (on the spread), followed by my favourite player prop on the board with a short break-down to explain the reasoning.
As I had posted previously on X – we have joined the MoneylineGo team (https://moneylinego.com/experts/PlusMoneyJ), but will still be offering NFL full slate analysis for free. Why make anyone pay for this in-depth analysis? I love writing this all up – and I love sharing knowledge and clean-breakdowns for whomever may want it.
Without further ado – let’s get to it.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
*All data from PFF.com premium subscription.
2024 NFL Divisional Round Playoffs: Divisional Round Saturday Slate Game Breakdowns, Game Picks, and Best Player Prop
Game One: Houston Texans vs KC Chiefs, 4:30 P.M. ET
Weather Impact:
- Should be cold in this one, with temps falling to around 20 degrees fahrenheit (-6 degrees celsius), along with 10 mph winds that could gust up to 25 mph from the front-to-back of the field.
Key Injuries for HOU
- HOU RB Joe Mixon (Questionable, DNP Thurs, likely playing but dealing with a lot of pain in his ankle)
- HOU WR Robert Woods (Questionable, DNPs all week, unlikely to play)
- HOU LB Azeez Al-Shaair (Questionable, LP Weds and Thurs, likely playing)
Key Injuries for KC
- KC WR Mecole Hardman and KC CB Jaylen Watson (Both coming off IR, both likely to play)
Game Breakdown
KC Offence vs HOU Defence
We’ll start our breakdown with the KC offence, which has been anything but prolific through most of the Regular Season. The offence fell to 11th in EPA (estimated points added) per play this year (0.06), and their explosive throw rate was one of the lowest in the NFL season-long (Mahomes was 30th in the NFL in pass completions over 20+ yards (12), behind guys like Derek Carr, Will Levis, and Aidan O’Connell).
So why has this KC offence gotten it done this year, leading to a 15-2 record (aside from the defence playing lights out)? Well – I’d say it comes down to two things: (i) they didn’t take too many negative plays through the year, and (ii) they converted at a very high rate on third down (3rd in NFL at 47.5%). These points kind of go hand in hand – as it’s because they didn’t put themselves in 3rd & long situations that they were able to convert on 3rd down at a high rate. I would say that’s key to winning Playoff football games – where every yard matters with each team at max effort in the trenches.
Speaking of the trenches – that may be the area of greatest concern for this KC offence, as their LT spot was a huge problem through most of the Regular Season. Couple that with the HOU book-end rush duo of Will Anderson Jr. (86.9 PFF grade, 14 sacks, 37 QB pressures) and Danielle Hunter (83.2 PFF grade, 12 sacks, 45 QB pressures) – and you’re just asking for trouble.
BUT – with the Chiefs moving perennial OG Joe Thuney to LT – things have been looking a lot better for Mahomes and Co. KC only ranked 13th in the NFL in PFF pass block grading through the Regular Season (70.7), but since Thuney moved to LT in Week 15 – they’ve had a higher pass block grade in 2 of 3 games (where the only game they missed that mark was against Myles Garrett). In fact – one of those games included a matchup against HOU in Week 16 – where Thuney only allowed 3 QB hurries in 50 (!!!) pass blocking snaps. Therefore – I’m expecting that the HOU pass-rush is somewhat neutralized against this revamped KC OLine – even if that means keeping HOU below 3 sacks and giving up QB pressures on less than 15% of passing snaps (HOU had 22% QB pressure rate season-long).
While I expect those two units to neutralize each other in the pass game – things get a little more dicey for the HOU defence when it comes to the run game. The KC OLine ranked 7th in PFF grading when it came to run blocking, and led Kareem Hunt to his highest rushing yard total since 2020. Meanwhile – the HOU defence was middle-of-the-pack in PFF rush defence grading, and they gave up 80+ yards at over 4 yards-per-carry to the KC RBs in Week 16 (followed by 150+ rush yards to King Henry in Week 17). Against the big physical OLines – with physical backs – they seem to struggle more than against the gap run schemes with smaller backs looking to find holes (that was JK Dobbins last week, who had 120 gap runs vs 81 zone runs on the year). I would expect a high volume of zone runs (which KC does at a high rate with Hunt at 126 zone runs vs 61 gap runs this year), with cutbacks and multiple 5+ yard carries to get this KC offence going early.
The last point to be addressed here – the KC pass game vs the HOU pass defence. I said this should be a stalemate in the trenches when it comes to the pass attack: well, the same doesn’t go for KC pass-catchers vs HOU DBs.
KC ranked 20th in PFF receiving grading through the Regular Season – but the insertion of WR Hollywood Brown (Week 16) into the lineup has really made this KC offence turn the page. He may not have impressive numbers through the two games he played this year (45 receiving yards per game), but it’s created a situation where all KC pass-catchers are finally in their own roles. KC Rookie WR Xavier Worthy doesn’t have to do too much; there’s more speed on the outside with Brown which opens up the middle of the field for Kelce + Gray; and Hopkins can comfortably work in the short-to-intermediate parts of the field with his possession-ability still at a very high level. The two games prior to Brown getting in the lineup: 369 pass yards and 3 TDs total for Mahomes. The two games once Brown was in the lineup: 580 pass yards and 5 TDs total for Mahomes. And I’m not cherry-picking defensive matchups there – the two final games came against the HOU and PIT defences – both Playoff-caliber.
Meanwhile – the HOU secondary hasn’t been up to snuff this year when it comes to pass production allowed, despite the young talent they have on the backend. They’ve allowed the 9th most receiving yards per game to WRs on the season (154.4), and the 2nd highest WR yards per reception mark to go along with it (13.97). Further, since Week 10, they’ve given up 55+ receiving yards to opposing TEs in 7 of 9 matchups. How does the HOU secondary deal with these deficiencies? Through takeaways, leading the NFL in takeaways-per-game at 1.8. It’s a feast-or-famine defence – and they definitely feasted against Herbert last weekend with his 4 interception performance. I would say that I don’t expect Mahomes to give up the ball that easily in this one – but I didn’t expect Herbert to perform like that after only having 3 INTs on the year – so it’s a tough read.
All in all, we can summarize this part of the matchup through 3 points:
- KC should run the ball to moderate success with (a) Pacheco rested up for the Playoffs, (b) cold weather with some questionable wind conditions, and (c) a good zone run scheme with great run blocking from the OLine.
- KC should be able to keep Mahomes clean in the pocket to a significant extent, with KCs increasing reliance on short-to-intermediate throws (less time to release for Mahomes) and Pat’s ability to scramble when the play breaks down.
- Due to the KC defence’s projected success in this one (we’ll get to that), it will be tough for the HOU D to take advantage of their takeaway-ability with KC unlikely to play from behind, allowing Mahomes to rely on moving the ball steadily upfield to prevent turnover-worthy plays.
Overall – I wouldn’t expect the Chiefs to pop off in this one for an insane point total. I’m guessing they land somewhere from 21-27 points in this one, with at least 100 team rush yards and an average depth-or-target that doesn’t exceed Mahomes’ season-long mark of 6.9.
KC Defence vs HOU Offence
Props to the HOU offence for their performance last week vs a stingy Chargers defence – though I wouldn’t say they were the most consistent unit through that game. Stroud had right around 100 pass yards and an INT in the 1st half (before he led them on a huge drive to end the half), HOU WR Metchie fumbled the ball on the first play of the game, and the rushing attack was non-existent. Obviously – things changed at the end of the 1st half, where Stroud stole the momentum and rode it through the 2nd half (which was aided in large part by the takeaways from the HOU defence).
If the HOU offence gets off to a similar start in this one – I wouldn’t expect things to go the same way. It’s really a different beast if you get stuck behind in a game vs the KC defence, as they’ve been lights-out all year with their combination of high-level scheme and high-skill personnel.
The Chiefs D:
- Had the 5th highest QB pressure rate in the NFL (26%) to go along with the 4th highest blitz rate (31.6%) – and their best pass-rusher (DT Chris Jones) lines up at the weakest point of the HOU OLine (on the interior).
- Allowed under 235 pass yards per game, to go along with the 3rd least rush yards per game to opposing RBs and the 6th least receiving yards per game to opposing WRs.
- Were Top 15 in takeaways this year (20 TOs) and were 12th in scoring percentage allowed per drive (36.5%) while being Top 12 in pass TDs allowed and rush TDs allowed.
Now – I do have some faith in Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz performing in a big-game where they will be the focal points of the offence, but it will come at the expense of Stroud’s health & possibly a win due to two primary concerns:
- The first is that Stroud won’t have any time to throw the ball. When this happened to Stroud throughout the year, it led to a total collapse of the offence, as he then had to rely on his only healthy options (now down to Collins and Schultz) to gain separation early so he could anticipate the throw. The IOL of the Texans has been the main concern this year, which is an issue when All-Pro KC DT Chris Jones is running down your throat right at the QB. For reference: HOU had the highest QB pressure % allowed in the NFL this year (27.2%), while the KC defence had the 5th highest QB pressure %. If Stroud isn’t releasing the ball early to shorter routes and moving down the field methodically (not his strength), things could get real ugly.
- The second is the inability of HOU to get any production from the ground game. Mixon has looked great this season (most of the time) – but when he hasn’t looked good, it’s been the OLines fault. They were 1 of 4 Playoff teams that had less than 1,050 rush yards before contact (as a team) – and 2 of those teams went home last week (MIN & LAC). This HOU OLine was 25th in PFF run block grading this year, and Mixon hadn’t rushed for 60+ rush yards in the 4 games prior to last week. Add to that Mixon’s health status due to a nagging ankle injury – and things don’t look great. These are all issues that might pan out given the right matchup – but that won’t be the case against a defence that is Top 5 in rush yards per game allowed and Top 10 in PFF rush defence grading.
There’s also the cold weather and a possibility for strenuous winds – so it gets pretty easy to project that the HOU offence will have serious struggles against this Chiefs D. If they put up more than 17 points in this one – I’ll be thoroughly surprised. My projection is they don’t breach that mark – leaning on their defence to keep them in it until the 4th quarter.
Game (Spead) Pick: KC Chiefs -8.5 (-110) via Bet365 – 1.10 units
I know this is a pretty absurd spread for a Playoff game – but the cards are stacked too high against this HOU team to believe the game will be close. Aside from the fact that KC has always owned HOU in the Playoffs – KC has the best QB in the NFL in the biggest moments, and they’re playing at home in tough conditions when HOU thrives in dome-like weather. The KC defence will bring the heat and multiple blitz packages against an unprotected Stroud, with a lack of pass-catching options and a non-existent run game apparent. KC might have some difficulty on offence at times, but the run game should find its footing, and Mahomes’ scrambles combined with the short-intermediate pass-attack against a risk-taking HOU secondary will lead to long drives that end in scores. Final score prediction: 24 KC – 13 HOU.
Top Player Prop: Isaiah Pacheco Over 10.5 Rush Attempts (-105) 1.05 units
Pacheco may have been eased back into the lineup in his return from injury during the regular season (55 rush yards or lower in each of his 5 games since coming back). But I’m thoroughly of the belief that they were ramping up Pacheco’s workload so that he can be at full-steam come Playoff-time – where we’ve seen this story play out before.
Prior to last year’s Playoff run – Pacheco had 15.6 rush attempts per game in the 6 games he played from Week 9 to 17 (he also missed time in that stretch, Weeks 14 and 15). In the 4 Playoff games they played? 20.25 rush attempts per game, with two games of 24+ rush attempts.
The cold weather and a projected KC lead in this one make conditions + game-script perfect for Pacheco to eat up the work – even if Hunt gets in for a few rushes to keep Pacheco’s leg’s fresh.
I have a good feeling that Pacheco’s getting fed in this one – as it would be foolish in my mind for the KC offence to stray away from their offensive philosophy this whole year: run the ball so you can leave yourself in 3rd and manageable situations.
Game Two: Washington Commanders vs Detroit Lions, 8:00 P.M. ET
Weather Impact:
- In the dome – the weather’s all good.
Key Injuries for WAS
- N/A
Key Injuries for DET
- DET OG Kevin Zeitler (Out)
- DET CB Ennis Rakestraw (Coming off IR, LP Thurs, true question to play)
Game Breakdown
DET Offence vs WAS Defence
Well – this is the deciding-aspect of this matchup if we can even begin to fathom the Commanders winning this game. I have some belief in the WAS offence against a depleted DET defence (with no adverse weather), as I’ll get to in the next section of this breakdown. But if the WAS defence can’t hold up against a stacked DET offence – then they don’t have a chicken shit’s chance in hell of winning this game.
The first fear: can WAS stop the run game. From everything I saw this year – I would say no. The WAS defence allowed the 4th most rush yards per game to RBs (111) to go along with another 20+ receiving yards per game to RBs. They had the 5th lowest PFF rush defence grade on the year (55.1), and allowed almost 5 yards per carry to opposing rushers (4.8). They looked a bit better against TB and Bucky Irving last week – but even he went for 75+ rush yards and 4.53 yards per carry in a game the Bucs lost.
That weakness in the WAS rush defence lines up horribly with how the DET would prefer to run their offence – as it all flows downhill through their rushing attack. The Lions OLine was 3rd in PFF run block grading this year (78.4), and they’re welcoming the two headed monster back into this backfield mix with David Montgomery returning to the lineup from injury. It’s not like Jahmyr Gibbs was doing poorly on his own in this backfield (over 105 rush yards per game in each of his last 3 games), but the added element of Monty should provide even more spark for a rush attack that likely dominates in this one.
But it’s not like the WAS D will have the advantage vs the pass attack in this game either. We know the story with Lions QB Goff at this point: if you bring good pass-rush pressure, he can’t succeed at getting the ball to his playmakers. Well – the Commanders D is right in the middle-of-the-pack at generating QB pressures (under 23%), and with the Lions OLine allowing the 13th lowest QB pressure rate (21%), it’s more of a stalemate when it comes to QB pressure as opposed to a lopsided advantage for either side.
The lopsided advantage in the pass game comes down to skill position players – where DET has an edge. WAS CB Marshon Lattimore, the Commanders’ big acquisition to a subpar secondary at the trade deadline, just doesn’t look right out there at this point in the season. Whether it’s injury or age regression (or both), he can’t hang with #1 WRs – as Mike Evans showed last week (things got so bad, they had to pull Lattimore off Evans). With Jameson Williams and Amon-Ra taking snaps all over the field (slot and outside), this WAS secondary will definitely have trouble keeping everything under wraps throughout the game.
However – when it all comes down to it – I don’t think the DET pass-catchers are going to blow the WAS secondary out of the water here. If I’m the DET HC (wish I was Dan Campbell) – I would be reiterating to OC Ben Johson the importance of keeping WAS QB Jayden Daniels off the field, while keeping T.O.I in the Lion’s favour through grinding, long, physical drives. With the weaknesses this WAS defence has shown against the run game (especially as the game goes on and they start to get worn out), it’s clear that the DET path to victory will be through grinding this one out with Gibbs + Monty.
WAS Offence vs DET Defence
Now – the interesting part of this matchup. WAS QB Jayden Daniels going up against a depleted Lions defence really makes me wonder – how much juice does this young man have? He showed out tremendously in the WC game against the Bucs defence – but that defence hasn’t been great this year, and they had to employ 2 (!!!) QB spies to stop Daniels’ from scrambling, leading to him finding easier pass-coverage opportunities down the field for a big passing yardage total. I don’t think things will be as easy against a DET defence that’s performed better as of late – but it could get dicey for one simple reason.
That reason is Daniels’ mobility. He really is a Top 5 scrambler in the NFL, and his designed runs looked very good when employed against a tough TB defensive front. As we know by this point in the season: DET loves to blitz the passer (2nd in blitz rate at 34.6%) and play man coverage on the backend (1st in man coverage rate at 41%). I’ll tell you what doesn’t work when you’re blitzing and playing man coverage – having QB spies. It’s just simple math – if you’re going to blitz, you can’t have a QB spy without running the risk of leaving yourself short in coverage. When that’s primarily man coverage – opposing QBs can find the discrepancy in the defence and make you pay – especially if they can escape the pass-rush and get a few extra split-seconds to scan the field.
Yes – the WAS OLine hasn’t been incredible at protecting the passer this year (11th lowest PFF pass blocking grade). But I’ll take the bet that: (i) the depleted DET pass-rusher group combined with (ii) the ability for Daniels to escape pressure – makes things very interesting.
The issue that may turn up for WAS in this aspect of the matchup is their inability to run the ball with their RBs. It’s really difficult to imagine Brian Robinson Jr. and Ekeler getting going with the WAS OLine possessing the 6th lowest PFF run blocking grade when the Lions D has allowed the 2nd fewest rush yard per game to RBs (68). There’s a reason why the Lions hold a Top 10 PFF rush defence grade on the year – and with the DET LB core gaining Anzalone back into the mix – things should only get tougher.
I could see WAS employing a game-plan similar to the LAR vs the Vikings in the WC round. McVay didn’t run the ball at all in the 1st half – as the Vikes D was Top 5 in rush yards allowed per game to RBs, and their clear weakness was in the secondary, where they allowed the 5th most pass yards per game (258). So – the Rams got Stafford rolling out, using play-action, to convert on short-to-intermediate pass plays. The Lions D – is also Top 5 in rush yards allowed per game to RBs and has allowed the 4th most pass yards per game (259). Very similar to MIN – and with the Lions allowing the 4th most rush yards per game to QBs on the year, things will be open for Daniels to attack the defence in any way he sees fit.
Game (Spead) Pick: WAS Commander +9.5 (-110) via Betway – 1.10 units
While I have the Lions winning this game outright (duh), I think this spread is a little bit too stacked for a DET team that doesn’t have the edge on both sides of the ball. Daniels has shown his mettle, going on the road last week to take down a well-coached Bucs team that brings the blitz just as much as DET. I project a back-and-forth affair, where DET continues to run the ball at a high rate while marching down the field, followed by Jayden leading the WAS offence down the field through explosive plays and solid scrambles. DET will likely be in command for most of the game – but I see a scenario where Daniels gets this thing within a touchdown near the end of the game to make for an exciting finish. Give me the points.
Top Player Prop: Jayden Daniels Over 53.5 Rushing Yards (-112) via NorthStar – 1.12 units
We ran this prop last week – and Jaydo fell short due to the Bucs D choosing to give up the pass as opposed to allowing him to scramble and run. In my eyes – that doesn’t happen with this DET defence, as their scheme is predicated so heavily on man coverage and blitzing that they would be falling into the same trap as TB if they wanted to completely change things up and employ multiple QB spies. We all saw how that worked out.
Josh Allen and Anthony Richardson both had 60+ rush yards against this DET defence following Week 12 of the season – and 10 QBs have rushed for 25+ yards against this defence throughout the year (including Geno Smith, Sam Darnold, and Caleb Williams twice).
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with more NFL picks. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
Game (Spead) Pick: KC Chiefs -8.5 (-110) via Bet365 – 1.10 units
Top Player Prop: Isaiah Pacheco Over 10.5 Rush Attempts (-105) 1.05 units
Game (Spead) Pick: WAS Commander +9.5 (-110) via Betway – 1.10 units
Top Player Prop: Jayden Daniels Over 53.5 Rushing Yards (-112) via NorthStar – 1.12 units