Well my friends – we’re almost to the big game, with some very intriguing matchups lined up for Conference Championship Sunday. These matchups are the result of a stellar Divisional Round last weekend, where some very plucky teams kept things close for the duration of their respective games (with one team actually managing to pull out the W, well done Commanders). We set out breakdowns and best bets (spread and player props) for every game last week in our free articles – and ended up dead even at 4-4 across the board. We can’t complain about that with all of the exciting football we got to witness – and you can only expect more of the same with the games on deck this weekend.
Just like last week – we’re going to be doing something a little different. Instead of just breaking down player props – we’re going to break down each game through the weekend, providing in-depth analysis and advanced statistics to give us an idea of how the game might play out. That will be followed by a game pick (on the spread), followed by my favourite player prop on the board with a short break-down to explain the reasoning.
As I had posted previously on X – we have joined the MoneylineGo team (https://moneylinego.com/experts/PlusMoneyJ), but will still be offering NFL full slate analysis for free. Why make anyone pay for this in-depth analysis? I love writing this all up – and I love sharing knowledge and clean-breakdowns for whomever may want it.
Without further ado – let’s get to it.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
*All data from PFF.com premium subscription.
2024 NFL Conference Championship Previews: Conference Championship Slate Game Breakdowns, Game Picks, and Top Player Props
Game One: Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles, 3:00 P.M. EST
Weather Impact:
- Weather is actually about as good as you could hope for given where we are in the calendar year. Should be around 38 degrees fahrenheit (3 degrees celsius) with winds only getting up to 10-15 mph. Unlikely to adversely impact the game.
Key Injuries for WAS
- WAS OG Sam Cosmi (Out)
- WAS DT Da’Ron Payne (Questionable, DNP all week, true question to play)
Key Injuries for PHI
- PHI C Cam Jurgens (Questionable, LP on Fri, likely to play)
- PHI LB Nakobe Dean (IR)
Game Breakdown
WAS Offence vs PHI Defence
Well – something’s gotta give here. This WAS offence has looked so dialed in this whole offseason (as they did for most the year), and the PHI defence has held strong despite the Rams and Matt Stafford giving them a slight scare last week. We’re going to start with the WAS offence, specifically their ability to run the ball (both with their QB, and with a strong duo in the backfield).
I did not envision WAS putting up 175 team rush yards against a DET defence that held opposing RBs to 72 rush yards per game (3rd best mark in the NFL) and opposing QBs to 28 rush yards per game. Especially so given that the Lions were at home in the biggest game they’ve had in a decade. Nonetheless – this WAS OLine had a good performance, allowing Daniels and BRob + Ekeler to go for almost 5 yards a pop on 37 total carries. Ekeler really showed off his efficiency, with 47 rush yards on 6 carries to go along with another 41 receiving yards on 4 receptions. That being said – we have to remember how banged up the DET defence was (double-digit number of defensive players on the IR), and with WAS holding the lead through most of that game – some of this output may have been gamescript dependent.
I’m saying that because throughout the year – this WAS OLine has not been the model of consistency when it comes to run blocking. They held the 6th worst PFF run blocking grade, and had less than half of their games with a 60+ PFF grade (and a 60 PFF grade is just average). Further – the Commanders lost their highest PFF graded OLineman, OG Sam Cosmi, to a season-ending injury last week. That’s terrible news when you consider what’s coming back at them on this Eagles defensive front.
So what’s coming back at them you ask? Well, only one of the best interior defenders in the NFL, lining up right over where Cosmi should be, in Jalen Carter. This guy is nuts, and was a very big reason why the Eagles were able to hold on in the snowglobe vs the Rams last week. Once Stafford had the ball within the red zone with minimal time on the clock and a six point deficit, it was Carter who ended Rams fan’s hopes of a legendary comeback. Carter’s sack late in that matchup was a game-changer – and I’d expect him to be a game-wrecker in both the run game and the pass game come Sunday.
The issue for this Eagles defence, as is always the case when you play WAS – Jayden Daniels rushing ability. The guy is a magician when it comes to escaping the pocket, and even though he might not be sporting the highest yards-per-carry mark through these playoffs (3 yards-per-carry on 29 attempts), he’s very good at picking up first downs he has no business converting. It’s so back-breaking when you have a QB dead to rights on a 3rd & 5 and he somehow scrambles for 6 to keep a drive going. Daniels’ has that ability – but there’s a problem that WAS might run into given the tendencies of this PHI defence.
That would be two tendencies specifically: (i) the Eagles blitz a mere 19% of the time, which is the 5th least of any NFL defence, and (ii) they don’t play a ton of man coverage, as they mix a lot of man (12th in NFL in man coverage rate) with zone (16th in the NFL in zone coverage rate) to keep offences guessing. This presents multiple problems for Daniels, as: (i) a low blitz rate means the Eagles drop more people into coverage, preventing Daniels from finding lanes to run the ball, and (ii) less man coverage leaves minimal opportunities for Daniel’s to run with the LBs/DBs backs turned. On top of all that – the Eagles D, despite their low blitz rate, still finished 15th in sacks this year, showing they can get to the QB with four pass-rushers. The only saving grace for WAS is that the very athletic LB Nakobe Dean is Out, leaving only one stud LB (Zac Baun) to track down Daniels if he takes off.
The last point of concern in this part of the matchup – how the WAS pass attack will break down one of the best secondaries in the League this year in PHI. If you ask me? I’m thinking this will be a difficult one for Daniels to move the ball downfield – as you know PHI DC Vic Fangio has his two-high coverage packages locked in after the show Washington put on against an inexperienced DET secondary.
There’s a reason why PHI allowed the 2nd least pass yards per game (200) with the #1 PFF team coverage grade to this point in the season. Actually – there’s multiple reasons for this. As I had touched on, the ability to only rush four and still get pressure allows coverages to hold up longer than usual, and the athletic LBs on the Eagles have amazing sideline-to-sideline speed with high coverage IQs. On top of that, the Eagles can cover the deep areas of the field with two high safeties, in large part due to the success of Rookie CBs Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper Dejean this year. It’s really tough to find a weakness in any part of this defence, scheme-wise or personnel-wise.
BUT – it’s still Jayden Daniels on the other side of things, and he’s looking like a Top 5 QB in this League currently. Nonetheless – I see the Eagles defence holding the advantage in this part of the matchup, as it will likely go something like this:
- WAS will have trouble running the ball with their RBs, though Ekeler may have a little more success with his ability to make athletic defenders miss. Jaydo will have some small chunks on the ground through his scrambling ability – but you can bet your bottom dollar that the Eagles will be employing LB Baun as a spy, limiting upside on any QB run.
- PHI should be able to stuff the run and get pressure on Daniels without committing to the blitz, especially on the interior where Carter will cause all kinds of chaos against a backup OG.
- With PHI’s ability to get pressure up the middle, coupled with holding the edge, Daniel’s will have less time to throw, and will lack the ability to extend plays with his legs. The Eagles are going to force Daniels to move the ball methodically downfield on dink-and-dunk passes – and my guess is, Daniels eventually loses his patience. I could see a couple TOs for the WAS offence coming in this one – which is unfortunate, because it would be legendary if Daniels could make it to the SB in his first year.
PHI Offence vs WAS Defence
Hand up – I didn’t think the WAS defence had the ability to create turnovers and put pressure on Goff like they did. It’s ridiculous to me that one of the best OLines in the League in Detroit could give up pressure on almost 50% of Goff’s dropbacks – especially when considering the Edge rushers that make up this WAS front. Nonetheless – Dan Quinn’s defence was able to get home, all while blitzing only 20% of the time.
With all of that being said – this PHI OLine is a different animal. Yes – the Rams defence got some good pressure against Hurts last week, with 50% of his dropbacks resulting in a pressure. However – the Rams had to blitz on 43% of Hurts’ dropbacks to get that kind of pressure, and it’s likely that the heavy snow in that game played into the decision to constantly bring heat. With Hurts possessing the ability to take advantage of shot-plays in this one due to the lack of inclement weather, it becomes more concerning to bring the blitz that much. If WAS only sends four pass-rushers – they won’t have a chicken shits chance in hell of getting home against Philly’s 6th highest PFF graded pass blocking unit. That’s not even mentioning the mobility of Hurts, who can do (almost) the same thing as Daniels when it comes to pocket escapability and designed runs.
Something that has been interesting to note – the Commanders have really catered their coverages to opposing offences, where they were middle-of-the pack in both man coverage rate (25.8%) and zone coverage rate (69.3%) through most of the regular season. Last week – the Commanders played a lot more zone due to the extreme success of Detroit against man coverage. With PHI also having a huge advantage vs man coverage – I’d expect WAS to employ a lot of zone again, where Hurts could run into trouble if he tries to force the ball downfield.
However – it’s likely that Hurts won’t have to try that too often. Why is that? Because this Eagles run game is at such an elite level right now – it would be coaching malpractice for PHI not to utilize it for a majority of the game. The PHI OLine was the 6th highest PFF graded run blocking unit in the League (76.3), and have performed at an above-average level through both Playoff games. It’s a lot of beef on that PHI OLine – and it will be very difficult for the WAS defence to prevent gashes when: (i) Lions RB Gibbs ran for 100+ rush yards last week at 7.5 yards-per-carry, (ii) WAS allowed the 4th most rush yards per game this year, and (iii) WAS has the 4th worst PFF grade when it rush defence.
Those three points – really tilt this part of the matchup in favour of the Eagles, as Saquon Barkley has looked seemingly unstoppable through every game this year. The guy churns out 100+ rush yards each and every game like it’s the easiest thing on the planet – and with the Eagles D projected to hold strong against WAS, PHI will have an opportunity to establish the run game without panicking due to being behind on the scoreboard. With all of that considered, I see things playing out something like this:
- Eagles start with the run game – and find success after a couple early run stuffs by the WAS defensive front. Barkley will be looking for the home run on each and every attempt – and eventually, he’ll find it. On top of that, Hurts will keep a couple read-options which will keep the aged WAS LB core from attacking the line of scrimmage on the handoff, allowing Barkley to have even more room to run once he initially gets the handoff.
- If WAS wants to load up the box to prevent this – they’re going to leave themselves light in coverage. That’s when the Eagles will use play-action to take shots to the deep and intermediate part of the field. Although WAS DBs have played well through this Playoff stretch, it becomes a lot different when you have AJ Brown + Devonta Smith going one-on-one with an undersized Corner.
- The PHI offence will constantly keep this WAS defence guessing – leaning on the run until WAS makes adjustments; going to the pass once defenders commit to stopping the run; and then going back to the run once WAS has gotten sick of giving up explosive pass plays.
Game (Spead) Pick: PHI Eagles -6 (-110) via Bet365 – 1.10 units
I’m sorry Washington – this is where the Cinderella story ends. I really hope I’m wrong, as nobody outside of Eagles fans wants them to make another Superbowl. But Washington is just severely outmatched in this one. I can see WAS having some success on offence due to Daniels’ playmaking ability – but the Eagles will eat up alot of clock and will wear down this Washington defence with their physical run blocking and Saquon’s constant battering-ram running style. The Eagles D will limit big plays, forcing an average WAS rushing attack to try to move the offence methodically down the field (which won’t work). If that’s the case, Daniels’ might get anxious and force more throws downfield – which would be the kiss of depth when Eagles defenders have been such ball-hawks throughout the year (Eagles had the 6th most takeaways this year). Final score prediction: 24 PHI – 17 WAS
Top Player Prop: Jalen Hurts Over 30.5 Rush Yards (-110) via Bet365 – 1.10 units
We went with Saquon’s rushing line last week – but this week, his line has soared to a very dangerous figure for a inter-divisional playoff matchup. He’ll still get his (he had 140+ rush yards in both games against WAS this year), but we’re going with Hurts in this one. The guy showed off some impressive wheels on his 40+ yard run last week vs the Rams, and the Commanders LBs are not the most fleet of foot – as is evidenced by the 7 games this year they’ve allowed opposing QBs to go for 25+ rush yards. As I noted above – I expect more than a few read-options where Hurts will pull the ball to take advantage of everyone keying in on Barkley. On top of that – if WAS is going to push 8 into the box to stop the run, they’ll have to play man coverage on the outside to make up for any coverage gaps. That will allow Hurts to take advantage of some scrambles on bootlegs/play-action with opposing DBs backs turned in coverage downfield. Don’t get it twisted – Hurts averaged 43 rush yards per game this year, and he’s going to give everything he has to keep his offence moving down the field while eating up clock. That includes making plays with his legs – so let’s lock him in.
Game Two: Buffalo Bills vs KC Chiefs, 6:30 P.M. EST
Weather Impact:
- Not much of a weather impact in this game either. Wind speed will be average, and no precipitation or snow expected. It will be cold (38 degrees fahrenheit/3 degrees celsius to start, and colder as the game goes on), but both teams are used to that.
Key Injuries for KC
- N/A
Key Injuries for BUF
- BUF S Taylor Rapp (Out)
- BUF CB Christian Benford (Questionable, needs to clear concussion protocol, true question to play)
Game Breakdown
BUF Offence vs KC Defence
Well shit – who comes out and dominates the line of scrimmage? That’s the real story with this one, because JA and the Bills will be itching to employ a run-heavy game plan (as they did against BAL with 147 team rush yards, averaging over 4 yards per carry), while KC will have to stuff the run and contain Allen to keep this one close.
In my opinion – it’s going to be the Bills with the advantage in the trenches. Don’t get me wrong – this Chiefs defensive front is stellar, with All-Pro DT Chris Jones bringing pressure on the interior, coupled with DE George Karlaftis bringing the heat from the outside. The combination of those DLineman and underrated LBs led the Chiefs to the 4th best rush defence in the NFL, only allowing 72.4 rush yards per game to RBs through the season. On top of that, the Chiefs bring a lot of pressure on opposing QBs, ranking 4th in team blitz % and 5th in QB pressure % on the season.
HOWEVER – there are two key things to point out which explains why I’m leaning towards the Bills OLine and their run game in this one: (i) the Chiefs D has had more trouble recently stuffing the run, as they’ve allowed 3 of the last 4 RB rooms they’ve faced to go for 100+ rush yards, and (ii) the Chiefs D is vulnerable to mobile QBs, as their LBs are a bit slow which has led to opposing QBs going for 40+ rush yards in each of their last 3 matchups. To me – that’s real bad news for the Chiefs D, as the Bills recipe for success in this game is predicated on their rushing attack.
That rushing attack is led by the Bills OLine, which had two of their highest PFF graded run blocking performances on the season in the two playoff games they’ve played. They’re peaking at this point – and that’s not even mentioning Josh Allen’s scrambling ability. With the Chiefs relying on the blitz so much – it’s no surprise they give up rushing production to opposing QBs. On top of that – the Chiefs play the 7th most man coverage in the League, making the conditions just right for Allen to catch the Chiefs on some gashing runs.
The main points of contention – turnovers and success in the red zone. That’s the whole reason the Chiefs beat the Texans, as HOU outgained the Chiefs offence when it came to total yardage but failed to convert & lacked ball security. But with Allen’s scrambling ability far exceeding Strouds (which helps a lot in the red zone), and Buffalo’s amazing job at limiting turnovers on offence (least amount of TOs in the NFL this year) – I don’t expect this one to play out the same way.
Overall – if Buffalo stays patient with the ground game and beats down this KC defence, they should have a lot of success. Similar to PHI, an early commitment to the run game will pay dividends when it comes to explosive plays downfield, as KC will have to stack the box to prevent Cook and Allen from moving methodically down the field. Even if KC gets good pressure on Allen when BUF commits to throwing the ball, the escapability and play-making of Allen will likely make this a very tough day for one of the best defences in the NFL.
KC Offence vs BUF Defence
This is where the matchup gets really interesting – as the weakness of this BUF defence (their Safeties, especially with Rapp Out) meets a KC offence that does anything but throw the ball downfield.
I mentioned this in my last article – but just to reiterate: Mahomes was 30th in the NFL in completions of 20+ air yards (12), with Derek Carr, Aidan O’Connell, and Will Levis all having more. Did that change against a HOU defence that allowed the highest receiving yards per reception mark throughout the year? Not really, as Mahomes only had 5 pass attempts from 11-19 air yards and didn’t complete one pass of 20+ air yards. It was a ton of short + behind the line of scrimmage work, where 72% of his pass attempts occurred.
Why is that? Well, in my mind, it comes down to the weakness of this KC OLine in pass protection. While OG-turned-LT Joe Thuney held up well to end the year after making the move to the outside of the line – we all saw what happened when HOU sent their stellar book-end pass rush duo with their ears pinned back. The HOU defence only blitzed 28% of the time – yet ended up getting pressure on 47% of Mahomes’ dropbacks. While I wouldn’t say that the BUF pass-rush unit has as much juice as Houston’s – it’s still pretty damn good. They were graded as PFFs 9th best pass rush defence, and were Top 10 in QB pressure % this year while maintaining the 6th lowest blitz %. So – while Mahomes will want to test the Bills DBs downfield – it’s likely not going to happen more than two-three times.
So – the Chiefs will continue to attempt dink-and-dunk pass plays, likely relying on TE production (as BAL did last week) against a Bills defence that has allowed 55+ receiving yards to TEs in 4 of their last 6 games (including 133 given up to Ravens TEs last week). It’s a good plan of attack – but they won’t be able to get the pass game going without a competent run game, as BUF LBs will do well in coverage if they’re not thinking twice about a downhill rushing attack.
Yet – I don’t think the Chiefs will have a lot of success running the ball in this one. I was not impressed with Pacheco and Hunt last game out vs a HOU defence that had given up 75+ rush yards to opposing RBs in 3 of their last 4 prior to that matchup. All told – KC ended up with 63 rushing yards from their RBs on 13 carries – and both the OLine and the RBs failed to grade above 63 on PFF (63 would be pretty average).
Now – the Bills defence did give up 172 rush yards to Baltimore RBs last week – but only 85 of those yards came from DHen. Justice Hill was popping-off out there to the tune of 50 yards on 6 carries, and Lamar had his production with 39 additional yards on the ground. Thing is – it’s not really all that comparable to KC’s rush attack when (i) Lamar is more mobile than Mahomes and (ii) the Chiefs don’t have a quick, change-of-pace back to test a Bills defence that held DHen under 100 rush yards. In my mind – if the Bills come out with the same tenacity they did last week, the ground game of KC gets stuffed, leading to more 3rd and longs from drive-to-drive.
That’s a big issue for the Chiefs – because they’ve thrived this season when leaving themselves in 3rd and short situations so they can stay true to their dink-and-dunk pass attack (3rd highest 3rd down conversion rate in the NFL). If that’s not the case – the Chiefs offence will have to go ahead with pushing the ball downfield at a higher rate, leaving Mahomes susceptible to sacks and creating opportunities for an opportunistic Bills secondary to create turnovers (BUF D was Top 5 in turnovers, and their 2 turnover performance vs BAL was a big reason they won).
All told – I’m finding it hard to believe this Chiefs offence will have sustained success. They’ll get into the red zone a few times through the night – but they’ll likely have some trouble scoring TDs there with KC possessing the 24th Red Zone scoring %.
Game (Spead) Pick: BUF Bills Moneyline (+114) via Bet105 – 1.0 units
I swear – this isn’t me just picking against the Chiefs because they lack respect for the game with the constant whining to the refs. No – the analysis for this one is severely tilted in the Bills favour, where they have: (i) the better run game, (ii) the more dynamic QB, (iii) the better overall defence, and (iv) higher red-zone conversion rates to go along with better turnover margins. When all of that adds up in a Playoff game – it can go one of two ways:
- The Bills could fall behind early and panic, leaving behind their most valuable weapon (the run game) because they had some early failures; or
- The Bills could stay true to their game, even if the Chiefs get an early lead, running the ball while wearing down the KC defence while maintaining ball security
If it was the Bills 3 years ago? I wouldn’t trust them to stay true to the run game. The Bills, with all of their playoff experience, going into this one? Yeah, I trust them to stay steady on their game plan and pull this one out.
Top Player Prop: Josh Allen Over 46.5 Rushing Yards (-115) via Betway – 1.15 units
This one lines up perfectly for JA rushing the ball at will – for multiple reasons. As I had touched on above, the Chiefs D relies on man coverage and blitzing to function as a defence. This will leave more opportunities for Allen to find gaps in the middle of the field to take off while DBs backs are turned in coverage. The Chiefs defence has given up 40+ rush yards to each of the last 3 QBs they’ve faced – and Allen already had 46 rush yards in the Playoffs this year. Line it up – time for JA to cook.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with more NFL picks. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
Game (Spead) Pick: PHI Eagles -6 (-110) via Bet365 – 1.10 units
Top Player Prop: Jalen Hurts Over 30.5 Rush Yards (-110) via Bet365 – 1.10 units
Game (Spead) Pick: BUF Bills Moneyline (+114) via Bet105 – 1.0 units
Top Player Prop: Josh Allen Over 46.5 Rushing Yards (-115) via Betway – 1.15 units