Another week of professional golf – another week of picks from Plus Money Post. With another banger of a week last week, we want to keep the momentum going – and no better way to do that than some good placement bets. I’ll be staying away from the Outrights this week – and no, it’s not because I’m scarred from my two Rookie-Longshot Outrights last week (Thorbjornsen and Clanton) finishing tied for 2nd (don’t worry, we still got the Each-Way 8 places on those guys, so the profits were still flowing). Anyway, if you wanted to go through the picks from last week, along with the late addition of Clanton, here ya go.
But nevermind that – on to the much more impressive field at the Genesis Scottish Open this week. This won’t be like the past two weeks, where the best players in the field fell outside the Top 30 in the world with extremely easy course conditions and setups. This is a whole different animal – so let’s go through the course setup here to see what we are targeting with the picks.
The Course – The Renaissance Club (Scotland):
This is a combo event between the DP World Tour and the PGA – so we have a mixed bag in terms of competitors. It’s a 156 player field, with the Top 65 and ties making the cut. In terms of scoring – this one is completely subject to the elements. If it’s windy and dry – you’re looking at a -6 to -8 winning score. If the course is wet and the wind is down (which is what the weather reports are calling for this weekend – and weather reports are by far the most trustworthy source of information you can call on – right?!?), we’re looking at a winning score around -20.
This is a quasi-links style course, which means it’s open and by the water, but not as much as a traditional links course would be. In terms of Off-the-Tee game, distance rules all, as the Par 70, ~7,250 yard course offers three Par 5’s with an average total of 575 yards, and Par 4’s on the front nine averaging 455 yards. Guys will hit it longer than they usually do here (the fairways roll out quite a bit), and the rough is very forgiving compared to an average Tour setup (the rough is mostly composed of fescue that Tour players can easily get out of – the problem will be controlling the spin from these areas). So driving distance is going to be favoured over driving accuracy.
In terms of approach shots – we’ll be looking at 150+ yard approach shots primarily. The course plays long, and most approach shots will be from this distance with only one Par 4 on the course being less than 400 yards. Further, the five Par 3’s on the course play an average of 187 yards.
Around-the-Green (ARG) play can be very important on most links style courses. And it’s still important here – if the wind is out of control and the course is firm. We aren’t expecting that here – so I’m going to weigh this less. However, it’s never bad to have a guy that can get himself out of trouble with par saves.
Putting – as usual – will be huge. However, these greens aren’t similar to most setups, as they play quite slow (probably a 10 on the Stimpmeter compared to the Tour average of 12 (the higher, the faster)). I’ll be looking for some consistent putters – but I’ll also be okay with guys who aren’t amazing putters, but have shown they can putt well on this setup.
So all in all, the key players we pick will have: (i) great distance off the tee, (ii) great approach play, specifically from +150 yards, and (iii) good putting or good course history of putting. If their ARG game is even slightly positive, that’s a homerun. So without further ado – let’s get to the picks.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
*All data from DataGolf.com
2024 Genesis Scottish Open Placement Bets (Including Ties) and Outrights
Pick: Davis Thompson Top 20 (+200) 0.15u and Top 10 (+450) 0.1u Bet365
That’s right – it’s the square pick of the week. I just find it so wild that we’re still getting this much plus money on a guy that has 3 Top 10’s in his last 3 showings. I mean, the books must be putting a lot of stock into the weak fields at the John Deere and Travelers, as well as the inexperience of Davey boy. Regardless – I’ll be that sucker and go in on a guy that might only be 2nd to Scottie in terms of recent form.
What is there not to love about Davis this week? In his last 25 starts, he’s gained driving distance on the field in 22 out of 25. In his last 22 starts with tracked approach-strokes-gained, he’s gained on the field in 18 out of 22 (from 150-200 yards out, he ranks among guys like Schauffele and Aberg in SGAPR). His last five events, he’s averaged ~+1 stroke-gained ARG per round, and the putting has been absolutely lights out (+1.76 strokes-gained-putting (SGP) per round last week, +0.50 and +0.59 the two weeks before).
Honestly, how do I not bet Tommy Gun Thompson? He didn’t have success at this Tourney last year, but with the win at the John Deere, the runner-up at the Travelers, and the Top 10 in the US Open – I don’t see how you can ignore this man. Add him to this list.
Pick: Byeong Hun An Top 20 (+220) 0.15u and Top 10 (+475) 0.1u Bet365
Oh Mr. An – what a conundrum you are. Good thing you play the perfect game for this course, with the recent result last year at this Tourney as evidence he can place highly.
This guy is just all over the place – he most recently got cut at the US Open with a terrible putting performance. He’s taken some time off since then, which will likely be good for his mentality after that horrendous showing. The keys here are two-fold: absurd driving distance and dialled-in approach play.
I have to take a screenshot from DataGolf.com here to show you the ridiculousness that is Byeong Hun An Off-the-Tee:
He blows the field out of the water when it comes to driving distance – and it isn’t particularly close. Nevermind that, but look at his approach play as of late. In his last 10 showings, he’s gained strokes on approach 8 times, with some gaudy totals per-round. If we go a little deeper, he’s top 15 in strokes-gained-approach per-shot from 150-200 yards out (right near Scottie in the rankings). This is exactly what we are looking for when it comes to the Renaissance Club setup.
Sure, his ARG game isn’t great, and the putting can be really hit-or-miss. But that’s where we look to how Mr. An putted on this setup last year. And would you look at that: +0.33 SGP per-round leading to a Top 5 finish. Byeong likes the greens here, will likely have the most driving distance on the week, and nails approach shots from the prime distances. Again – what’s not to like.
Pick: Brian Harman Top 30 (+120) 0.20u and Outright Winner (+6000) 0.05u Bet365
The defending Open Champion loves links-style European courses – that much is clear. But why am I picking a guy with some of the worst distance on Tour in a spot where distance separates the recent winners (see Rory and Min Woo)?
I’ll tell you why: he’s a blend of everything else needed to win on this course. His driving accuracy is absurd (+15, +11, and +12 percent of fairways hit vs the field in his last 3 showings). Not only that, but Brian’s approach play has taken a huge step forward, where in his last 6 Tourneys, he’s averaging about +1 SGAPR per round. On top of that, he’s right around Davis Thompson in the rankings for APR shots from 150-200 yards – so the game definitely fits for a shorter hitter in Harmen.
His ARG game (gained strokes on field in 6 of his last 7 Tourneys) and putting (gained strokes on field in 6 of his last 9 Tourneys) have always been stellar – so no worries there.
The point that seals this pick is how well he played here last year despite poor approach play. Brian lost 0.75 strokes on approach per-round in the 2023 Scottish Open … and he still finished tied for 12th. If his approach play is even average …. lookout, cause this guy is coming.
Here are his last five results: T9 at the Travelers, T21 at the US Open, T33 at Memorial, T24 at Charles Schwab, and T26 at the PGA Championship. A plus money Top 30 pick here, coupled with a tiny little Outright should the impossible happen, is unreal value.
Pick: Thomas Detry Top 40 (+120) 0.20u and Top 10 (+450) 0.05u Bet365
Send me the Detes will be a popular pick here for two reasons: his putting has been fucking rank lately, and he previously had a Top 10 finish here (in 2022). That’s enough for me in all honesty, but there are other points that direct us to a good result for Detry.
Lately, he hasn’t really been long or short from the Tee. He’s right around average – but he smashes the ball on this course. An average of 6 yards of distance gained Off-the-Tee last year, but the year before it was closer to 23 yards of distance gained Off-the-Tee.
Not only that, but for a guy that struggles with his approach game (right around 0 SGAPR when averaging out his SGAPR the last 6 Tourneys tracked), he crushes the approach game here (+0.49 SGAPR per-round last year, +0.13 SGAPR per-round in 2022). Oh – and just peep his strokes-gained-putting per-round over his last 5 or so starts, courtesy of DataGolf.com:
I can definitely dig some Detry this week.
Pick: Nicolai Hojgaard Top 40 (+110) 0.20u and Top 10 (+600) 0.05u Bet365
Well, I had to take someone with a European last name that includes a J – and this is the best one out there to me. In all seriousness, Hojgaard has the game for this course – just look at his T6 finish here last year for proof.
It’s not just the result here last year which has me leaning this way. Much like Byeong Hun An, he is a masher Off-the-Tee, gaining double-digits in driving distance on the field consistently. The APR play is solid too, with strokes gained in 4 of his last 5 events, and a Top 5 ranking in approach shots from 150-200 yards (ridiculous with the hundreds of players on Tour accounted for from this distance – he’s right next to Scottie).
His putting and ARG play …. not too great. But even with a poor putting performance on this course last year (-0.44 SGP per-round), he still got the Top 10. The guy literally just needs a spike week Putting OR ARG to get on the first page of this leaderboard – so let’s ride ladies and gents.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with UFC and PGA bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks
2024 Genesis Scottish Open Placement Bets (Including Ties) and Outrights
Pick: Davis Thompson Top 20 (+200) 0.15u and Top 10 (+450) 0.1u Bet365
Pick: Byeong Hun An Top 20 (+220) 0.15u and Top 10 (+475) 0.1u Bet365
Pick: Brian Harman Top 30 (+120) 0.20u and Outright Winner (+6000) 0.05u Bet365
Pick: Thomas Detry Top 40 (+120) 0.20u and Top 10 (+450) 0.05u Bet365
Pick: Nicolai Hojgaard Top 40 (+110) 0.20u and Top 10 (+600) 0.05u Bet365