It’s finally here fellow golf fans! The FedEx Cup Playoffs get underway this weekend, starting with the FedEx St. Jude Championship in Memphis, Tennessee. For those of you that don’t know how the FedEx Cup Playoffs work – all PGA golfers accumulate FedEx Cup points throughout the golf season based on their finishes. Those golfers who end up in the top 70 on the FedEx Cup points list going into this week – have a chance to continue on in the FedEx Cup Playoffs. So, (a) Top 70 make the St. Jude, (b) Top 50 make the BMW Championship next week, and (c) Top 30 make the Tour Championship for the final event of the season.
Last week at the Wyndham Championship was a bit of a tough one for us – missing the Aaron Rai Outright because we went with a Top 10 and Top 20 instead. Regardless, that was only a $50 loss last week (if using $100 unit bets) coming off $420 profit at the Paris Olympics Golf.
This week, we have the best-of-the-best in the field, with the kind of field-depth that you don’t get anywhere other than Major Championships. The course itself can get beat up by these guys – but if conditions get tough with wind/dry surfaces, things will get difficult. Let’s get into a course breakdown to see the type of game that fits this setup.
The Course: TPC Southwind (Tennessee)
TPC Southwind is a Par 70, 7,250 yard course with some secret distance and very narrow fairways. As I said above – this course can play very difficult with tough conditions, but scoring is definitely still possible. The winner last year was at -15 after 72 holes – and I would expect a similar score this week based on the lack of wind and the scattered showers in the weather report (keeping the course soft).
First – what are we looking for off-the-tee? Tell me if this sounds familiar – we want driving accuracy over driving distance. While the course can play long with the Par 4’s averaging 450 yards, if you’re not in the fairway, you’re asking for trouble. The fairways are zoysia grass, while the rough is bermuda grass. Zoysia is known for the impeccable lies it produces, as the ball sits up quite a bit, making approach shots that much easier. Bermuda rough, while not overly long here, will produce some awful lies, where distance control will be very difficult. Therefore, the guys that play from the fairways will have the most success – especially considering that these green surfaces are some of the smallest on Tour.
Like many courses on Tour – approach play is the most important aspect to success on this setup. However, approach play may be even more important here, as I noted the green surfaces as being very small. Further, with the long distance Par 4’s around here – you get approximately half of all approach shots coming from 150-200 yards. That’s significant, so we’ll be keying in on this distance-range when it comes to approach play.
Bad putters can get by here, as the greens aren’t too speedy, and the undulations aren’t too intense. Chipping and around-the-green play is more important than the putting, but the scrambling is quite easy here compared to Tour-average. However, a good around-the-green guy is good coverage for possible dry conditions with wind – as more greens will be missed if the conditions get to that point. While I don’t expect that to happen until late Sunday afternoon – it’s something to watch out for.
Course history is important – but I’m only going back to 2020. Prior to that, this event consisted of a 156 player field with easier course conditions. Recent form will also come into play to signify where the golfer’s game is at currently.
So, all-in-all, it looks like the keys to success are: (a) driving accuracy, (b) approach play, specifically from 150-200 yards, (c) decent scrambling, and (d) good course history with recent form.
Let’s check out the guys that check most, if not all, of these boxes.
*All data from DataGolf.com
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship Best Bets:
Pick: Ludvig Aberg Outright Each-Way* ⅕ 10 Places (+1800) 0.25u E/W (0.5u total) Bet365
*If you are unfamiliar with Each-Way bets, all it really means is that we are placing two bets in one – one bet on Aberg to win, and one on him to get in the top 10. If he wins outright, we get the full +1800 dollar payout, but if he only gets in the top 10, we are looking at a reduction of ⅕ to the odds. So $100 E/W ($200 total) on Aberg at this line pays $2,360 if he wins (cashing the placement bet and the outright bet), and $460 if he only comes in the top 10. Dead-heat rules also apply – check your gambling site for the rules on that.
Ludvig is a good blend of everything you want on this course.
Let’s start with off-the-tee. Ludvig isn’t the most accurate guy on Tour, but he’s definitely above Tour-average. Of his last 10 performances, Ludvig has gained driving accuracy on the field in 7 events (and was exactly average in 1 event). He’s going to be hitting fairways at a decent rate. Further, Ludvig has some great distance off-the-tee (gaining driving distance on the field in 10 straight events). While this isn’t necessarily needed to win here, it does help a lot due to the increased length on the Par 4’s. Setting his approach shots up at 150 yards out is a lot better than setting them up at 200 yards out. Even with an increased tendency to go less than driver off-the-tee at this setup, it can still make a difference.
When it comes to approach play – there really aren’t too many guys on Tour that are better. He’s gained strokes-on-approach on the field in 10 straight events, with some absurd strokes-gained numbers such as +1.12 strokes-gained-approach (SGA) per/round at the Masters, +1.37 SGA per/round at the Travelers, and a crazy +1.84 SGA per/round at the Olympics. To take it a step further, Ludvig is in the 94th percentile on Tour when it comes to approach shots from 150-200 yards. He fits the bill to a tee (no pun intended).
When it comes to putting – he can be streaky, which is quite alright for this course setup. The thing is – when Ludvig putts well – he’s finishing Top 10. Let’s look at the last 5 months to keep things recent. He destroyed the Augusta greens at the Masters, finishing as the best putter at the event with +2.05 strokes-gained-putting (SGP) per/round, and placing 2nd. He racks up +0.88 SGP per/round at the Memorial, finishes in the Top 5. We even saw it last month at the Genesis, where he had +1.04 SGP per/round and finished T-4th. With his chipping and around-the-green play, he shouldn’t have too much trouble, as he’s right around Tour-average.
Ludvig hasn’t played this course before – so course history is out the window. But his recent form is stellar. Since January of this year, he’s placed in the Top 10 in 7 out of 17 events. Along with that, he had a PGA win at a lesser-event (RSM Classic) just 9 short months ago. With all of that considered – let’s ride the Berg this weekend.
Pick: Hideki Matsuyama Outright Each-Way* ⅕ 10 Places (+2000) 0.25u E/W (0.5u total) Bet365
Uh oh – Hideki is getting hot boys and girls. Hideki was an Outright pick at the Olympics and cashed a nice Each-Way 8 Places win with his 3rd place finish. This is a course that sets up similar to Le Golf National at the Olympics – so why not ride him again.
Hideki may not be lauded for his driving accuracy – but this year, on the tight-fairway courses, he’s hitting the short grass. That includes +6% driving accuracy at the Olympics (very tight fairways) and +5% at The Players (pretty tight fairways). In his last 6 events, he’s gained driving accuracy on the field in 5 showings. That all lines up with good gaining fairways on the field this week – and his driving distance isn’t too bad either (he’s gained driving distance on the field in 5 straight events).
Ball-striking and approach play? Check. In his last 12 events (since February), he’s gained strokes-on-approach on the field in 10 events. Two weeks ago at the Olympics? He was one of the best in the field at +1.44 SGA per/round. He also had over 1 SGA per/round in June at the US Open and the Memorial (he placed Top 10 in both). Much like Aberg, Hideki is in the 94th percentile on Tour with approach shots 150-200 yards out (in the last 12 months). Perfecto Hideki.
You’d think Hideki would be a poor putter and chipper based on his strong OTT and approach game. Wrong. He’s Top 5 on Tour when it comes to chipping and around-the-green play, rocking his wizard sleeves around the putting surface with magic touch/feel. Further, if you take out the 2 recent Scottish events these guys played (The Genesis Scottish Open and The Open), he’s gained strokes putting on the field in 6 straight events – with his hot putter showing out at the Olympics at over +1 SGP per/round.
Hideki has had good showings at this Tournament since 2020 as well. Top 20’s in 2020 and 2023, with a dirty T-2nd in 2021. Further, the recent form for Hideki anywhere other than Scotland is the following: 3rd, T-23rd, 6th, and T-8th. I’ll take that.
*Key Point: Just as I was getting ready to publish this article, news came out that Hideki’s caddy and coach are both stuck in Japan after they had their visa/passports stolen on the way home from the Paris Olympics. Hideki is using the caddie of fellow countryman and PGA Pro Ryo Hisatsune. I’m sticking with Hideki at this line because I believe in his game right now and he was recently quoted as saying, “I’m going to play golf as if I went back to the way I was before I had a coach. I feel like all the responsibility is on me. I’m looking forward to that for the first time in a while.” That’s cold, and a very good outlook on a tough situation. If you’re looking to shift to another pick, I’d go with Justin Thomas Outright E/W 10 places as well at +2500, as he’s got great course history here (he won this event in 2020 and was Top 20 in 2022) and pretty decent recent form (3 Top 10’s in his last 8 showings).
Pick: Tom Kim Outright Each-Way* ⅕ 10 Places (+2000) 0.25u E/W (0.5u total) Bet365
Another guy that cashed an Each-Way 8 Places at the Olympics for us – why not ride him again on a similar setup. Tom, considering his youth on Tour, is notorious for showing up in the big moments (as I had stated in the Olympic Golf preview). Further, his game sets up well here.
Driving accuracy is a given with this chap. Out of the 22 events he’s played this year (holy shit Kim has been active), he’s only lost driving accuracy to the field in 5 events. Tom consistently hits the ball straight, and while his driving distance may have been lacking earlier in the year, he’s gained driving distance on the field in 6 of his last 7 events. Boom-daddy off-the-tee.
His recent approach play is just as encouraging. I have a tendency to take out the approach stats for The Open because of the crazy conditions there. If we take out his approach play there, Tom has gained strokes-on-approach on the field in 6 of last 7 showings. There are some absolutely sick strokes-gained numbers in there as well, including +1.61 SGA per/round at the Travelers and +1.29 SGA per/round at the US Open. Since January 1, he’s in the 66th percentile with approach shots 150-200 yards out, and the 76th percentile from over 200 yards. Those aren’t amazing numbers – but if he dials it in, he will show much better than those figures suggest (as a couple outlier bad finishes really brought them down).
His putting and around-the-green play are pretty mediocre. Regardless, if Kim can even putt just above field-average, he will finish Top 5. Since June, Kim has gained over +0.5 SGP in 2 events. In both events, he placed Top 5. That’s enough for me to take the shot.
Kim also has a tendency to play well here. Last year, he scooped a T24th. The year before, he did even better with a T13 finish. Add the 3 Top 10 finishes in his last 8 showings …. and we’re cooking with gas baby. Let’s just hope the prospect of mandatory military service (b/c of his Korean heritage) isn’t too much for him after almost getting an exemption at the Olympics.
Pick: Aaron Rai Top 20 (Including Ties) (+105) 0.5u Bet365
We had Rai for a Top 10 and Top 20 at the Wyndham last week – and he ended up winning the damn thing with some crazy dramatics and a choke-job by Greyserman. I can’t feel great about him as a back-to-back winner, so I’m only riding the Top 20 this week. Regardless, Aaron could easily find his way to the top of this leaderboard with the course fit – so if you’re feeling his Outright, hit it.
Driving accuracy? Rai has Top 10 accuracy off-the-tee in the PGA. We’re throwing out the stats at The Open (as I said previously). Before that? He had a better fairway percentage off-the-tee than the field in his last 10 Tournaments. There were some absolutely deadly showings during that time period as well, including the RBC (+24% of fairways compared to the field) and the CJ Cup (+21% of fairways compared to the field).
Approach game? He’s tight. He’s gained strokes on approach (when compared to the field) in 9 of his last 10 events. That includes an absolutely crazy +2.17 SGA per/round at the Wyndham last week. For reference, Scottie Scheffler, the best ball-striker on the planet, has only exceeded +2.17 SGA per/round in 6 of his last 25 starts. Rai’s approach game in 2024 from 150-200 yards? 90th percentile on Tour. Filthy ball-striker.
The putter and chipping game, if you throw out The Open, is not too shabby either. Rai has gained over 1 stroke putting per/round in 3 of his last 5 events, and in the other 2 events, he had over +0.5 SGP per/round. That’s insane. Around the green, it’s been smooth sailing with 3 average performances and 5 above average performances in his last 8 showings (excluding The Open).
Overall – Rai has been a model of consistency with the 1st place at the Wyndham, T-2nd at the Rocket Mortgage, T-7th at the John Deere, and T-4th at the Genesis (all in the last 2 months). I see him continuing the streak this week. While his course history isn’t stellar (best finish is T-26th in 2021), his recent form overrides that, as Rai has levelled up this year. Let’s ride him again folks.
Pick: Sepp Straka Top 20 (Including Ties) (+140) 0.5u Bet365
Big Sepp is a tall drink of water – and man has he been low-key gooood the last 6 months on Tour.
It is odd that Sepp lost driving accuracy to the field at the Olympics; prior to that, he gained driving accuracy on the field in 12 straight events dating back to the end of March. Sepp loses driving distance to the field regularly, but being in the short grass is his speciality.
Straka as a ball-striker: stud. The guy consistently gains over +1 SGA per/round compared to the field. For reference, Straka has more +1 SGA per/round showings (6 of his last 10) than Schaufele (5 of his last 10) recently. That’s sick. Further, since January 1 of this year – he’s in the 97th!!! percentile with approach shots 150-200 yards out. That’s just gross.
His putting and chipping this year – right under Tour-average. But, if this guy can even just put up a positive number when it comes to strokes-gained with his putting and chipping combined (that’s not asking for much), he finishes well. In the last 4 months, this has only happened 5 times: The Open (T-22nd), The Memorial (T-5th), Charles Schwab (T-5th), Wells Fargo (T-8th), and RBC Heritage (T-5th). He has a spike week with these parts of his game – he’s basically finishing in the Top 10.
Straka has had good recent form too. Starting with The Players in late March, he’s got a Top 20 in 7 of 15 showings, and was Top 10 in 4 of those 7 showings. He also had a solo 2nd finish in this Tournament in 2022 in a playoff loss to Willy Z. It all adds up folks.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with UFC and PGA bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
Pick: Ludvig Aberg Outright Each-Way* ⅕ 10 Places (+1800) 0.25u E/W (0.5u total) Bet365
Pick: Hideki Matsuyama Outright Each-Way* ⅕ 10 Places (+2000) 0.25u E/W (0.5u total) Bet365
Pick: Tom Kim Outright Each-Way* ⅕ 10 Places (+2000) 0.25u E/W (0.5u total) Bet365
Pick: Aaron Rai Top 20 (Including Ties) (+105) 0.5u Bet365
Pick: Sepp Straka Top 20 (Including Ties) (+140) 0.5u Bet365